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Time 2 raise the rants

House Prices Are Falling

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I have spent a great deal of time examining the threads on this forum, looking at Nethouseprices for my local area and gaining anecdotal evidence from friends and colleagues who have bought or sold recently.

The results are grim for the Bulls; prices are sliding and my best estimate is that achieved prices are down at least 10% since 2004 in my area. My problem is that what is clearly happening on the ground is not reported accurately in the media and I am fed up with the perverse logic of the VIs who persist in the fiction that things are otherwise.

Surely the lenders, EAs etc. have a duty of care to report the truth? What legal recourse do we have to counter the lies these people are peddling?

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Glad we're not working off your best estimates then.

By my best estimate, terraced houses in my area are up 15% since this time last year.

This helps my estimate, but it's showing them up 22% which must be wrong surely?

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/...ced/l/sw11.html

PS. Great to have another variation on my name join the forum..... <_<

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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Glad we're not working off your best estimates then.

By my best estimate, terraced houses in my area are up 15% since this time last year.

This helps my estimate, but it's showing them up 22% which must be wrong surely?

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/...ced/l/sw11.html

PS. Great to have another variation on my name join the forum..... <_<

Flats ain't looking too good though... and based on twice the number of sales as terraced.

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/flats/l/sw11.html

Seriously, data based on so few houses are going to be far more volatile than the bigger picture.

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Flats ain't looking too good though... and based on twice the number of sales as terraced.

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/flats/l/sw11.html

Seriously, data based on so few houses are going to be far more volatile than the bigger picture.

Couldn't agree more.

Best not to work off plain estimates. Try a street by street survey of whats currently available at what asking price, then remove some £'s for negotiation which leaves a number.

So my number is about 15% higher than last year.

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Awooga

I have studied the nethouse prices for South Wales (North of Cardiff) approx 5-8% drop in prices and Volume of sales is a Joke

ttrtr to be getting 15% Increase over last year is incredible, when was the last Sale/Transaction?

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Awooga

I have studied the nethouse prices for South Wales (North of Cardiff) approx 5-8% drop in prices and Volume of sales is a Joke

ttrtr to be getting 15% Increase over last year is incredible, when was the last Sale/Transaction?

I've been viewing these properties over the last 4-6 weeks & 3 that I viewed went under offer soon after. 1 that I put an offer in on at an 8% discount refuses to even come close to my offer.

Viewing another next week, its one of the few left on the market just now.

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Glad we're not working off your best estimates then.

By my best estimate, terraced houses in my area are up 15% since this time last year.

This helps my estimate, but it's showing them up 22% which must be wrong surely?

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/...ced/l/sw11.html

PS. Great to have another variation on my name join the forum..... <_<

TTRTR, I'd suggest that name breaks the forum rule 'You must not have a name that is similar to an existing member to avoid any confusion'

At least no one has called themselves 'Time to Drop Your Pants' as a comment on one income stream of paying off debts (I'm not saying your debts) :D

Awooga 2

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:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/...hed/l/sw11.html

Semis doubled in value this year.

Tat is obviously a rigorous statistical tool - tat and tool deliberate!

Edited by Financial Planner

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I've been viewing these properties over the last 4-6 weeks & 3 that I viewed went under offer soon after. 1 that I put an offer in on at an 8% discount refuses to even come close to my offer.

Viewing another next week, its one of the few left on the market just now.

Now we know why you are so bullish!

You buy everything that comes onto the market in SW11 at near the asking prices. This keep everyone in your area happy they keep spending money and there is no HPC.

I think I might move there, it certainly sounds better than North London.

I am just glad I sold my Flat 6 months ago within 1.5% of the asking price so I can still afford to buy there.

:)

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Guest wrongmove
Semis doubled in value this year.

Tat is obviously a rigorous statistical tool - tat and tool deliberate!

To get a quick estimate of the percentage noise or error on a statistic, just take the square root of the number of observations, and divide it by the number of observations.... :blink:

To give an example, if there are 100 houses in a survey, the typical error will be sqrt(100) / 100 = 10/100 = +/- 10%

Using the examples in this thread,

SW11 terraces:

2005 (jan-mar) £546,294 (78) should read £546,000 +/- 11% (based on 78 houses)

SW11 semis

2005 (jan-mar) £1,186,252 (4) should read £1,200,000 +/- 50% (only based on 4 houses)

It is worth noting that this only gives the average error. The real error will be either smaller or larger than this rough estimate.

Edited by wrongmove

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:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/...hed/l/sw11.html

Semis doubled in value this year.

Tat is obviously a rigorous statistical tool - tat and tool deliberate!

Oh dear TTRTR,

Most of your posts in recent months have refered to the "Up My Street" website.

Maybe you could sue them, once you realise the actual drop in value of your recent purchases???

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Best not to work off plain estimates. Try a street by street survey of whats currently available at what asking price, then remove some £'s for negotiation which leaves a number.

Ermmm... "Try a street by street survey of whats currently available at what asking price, then remove some £'s for negotiation which leaves a number." is also an estimate, just a different one. So your sentence reads, best ignore estimates, and use an estimate instead. Hmmm. And unfortunately without a rigorous approach to sampling is highly likely to incorporate bias associated with your own opinions.

Tricky thing, statistics. Best left to the experts.

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Guest absolutezero

The higher the prices go the further they will fall later.

So further 15% rises in SW11 or wherever it was are not good things (for the likes of TTRTR). They mean bigger falls when the inevitable happens.

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Just for TTRTR, here is the Hometrack survey of his area for the last quarter (from the free region report - anyone can see this if they register on the site and request a free region report from SW11)

It is based on the views of 7 estate agents, five from SW11 (Courtenay, First Union Property Company, Lauristons, Wellingtons, Featherstone Leigh), one from Clapham (SW4) and one from Wandsworth (SW17)

First we have prices:

sw11_price_jul05.gif

Not too bad! Terraced house prices are flat, although all other forms of property have incurred small falls. But what is more worrying are supply/demand trends...

sw11_demand_jul05.gif

Oopsie! Supply strong and demand has been falling sharply. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see what is going to happen to prices over the next quarter!

EDITED TO ADD: Quite useful, that Hometrack site. Just checked one of the estate agents (Lauristons) and found that they have loads of property in the SW11 area for sale at a wide range of prices, with relatively little of it under offer, which supports the Hometrack results above.

post-2154-1122821830_thumb.jpg

post-2154-1122821853_thumb.jpg

Edited by Rapid Descent

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Glad we're not working off your best estimates then.

By my best estimate, terraced houses in my area are up 15% since this time last year.

This helps my estimate, but it's showing them up 22% which must be wrong surely?

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/...ced/l/sw11.html

PS. Great to have another variation on my name join the forum..... <_<

Posted on: Jul 24 2005, 11:37 PM

SW12 Q1 04 219 Q1 05 120 = 45.20% fall

SW17 Q1 04 390 Q1 05 173 = 55.64% fall

SW11 Q1 04 444 Q1 05 260 = 41.44% fall

Edit:

Greater London

Q1 04 40792 Q1 05 23340 = 42.78% fall

With sales volumes dropping off a cliff and properties on market increasing, it is near impossible for house prices to increase. TTRTR, you really must read today's Telegraph article especially as it is in relation to our neck of the woods (London Borough of Wandsworth) !!!

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TTRTR,

A serious question. I consider you one of the few "true" investors on this site, who obviously takes both sides of the coin and uses that to your advantage. Fair dues. If I had the cashflow to hand at present I would probably do the same. I am rather curious as to why you deny that prices are falling in some areas (in fact most now). Surely, as an investor making cash from BTL, dropping prices would be in your best interest? even if prices do drop, as long as you are covering your mortgage with the rental each month, then you are constantly making gains? I think you understand fully that increased asset value is a paper gain only, I also think that you are aware that prices are likely to fall around the UK; I also dont think you really care that they do; you are getting a bargain in the process. So why bother peddle increased prices on here?

I do not mean to slate you for your bullish comments, as I feel they add balance to a site that recently has been lacking of the above. From my personal viewpoint, The property market in Swindon has seen some fairly dramatic price reductions (-5% in last 9 months average, with some houses accepting morethan 10% discounts on realistic selling prices); surely for an investor like yourself these properties could be a bargain?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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