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Guest uberstuka

First Time Buyer In Need Of A Wake-up Call?

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Guest uberstuka

Hi

I'm new to this forum, so please forgive me asking questions that many of you have answered a million times before. If you could link me to any previous discussions in regard the pros and cons of buying/renting at this moment in time, I'd greatly appreciate it.

My situation: due to nothing more than f***king hard work, me and my partner have manage to save up a 10% deposit for a £170K house in Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire. I'm self employed and had to go for a `self certified' mortgage due to having difficulties in proving my income. Our mortgage advisor has a `decision in principle' and these are the figures: 6.85% over 30 years, the first three years being interest only at around £870. pcm.

We can manage this, but we're trying to save up that extra £8K for a 15% deposit of £25 500. to bring that interest rate down.

I'd like any opinions you may have on the above, but my real question is this: Am I about to truly f*** up? Should I sit this out for another few years and just bank/invest my capital elsewhere?

As a first time buyer - pretty much having the cream of the crop to pick from (in our price range) - I'm becoming increasingly concerned by just how much property is hitting the market every week. Also how much of it isn't selling, even after reductions of £10K in price. You may like to know that the property we have our eye on has come down from £189K to and accepted offer of £170K in just 10 months. And this, too, as somewhat disturbed me when - in theory - I should be laughing my head off.

I'm a complete novice in all these areas, but something smells bad and my spider-senses are doing over time (the reason I've stumbled upon you guys).

HELP!

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My advice is don't buy, just yet.

I woudl dearly like to have my own place, have done for the last five years.

Prior to that my salary wasn't high enough to even think about it.

Once it was, every time I thought about it, prices hked 20%,

my salary didn't.

Though not self-employed, I do work hard, and only through my own

efforts do I now earn a decent salary.

I rent a rather poor quality place, but the landlord is not greedy,

and is keen for me to stay.

The rent, if an equivalent IO motrgage, might just

buy me a crappy studio, in an even worse part of town.

As a result, I have a consderable deposit building up.

As prices fall, the mortgage I will need gets smaller.

Being a bit long in the tooth, this can only do me good.

So if I were you, and didn't _have_ to move, I would stay put,

and salt away an extra few grand. You might find by the tim eyou did

that 170k place is only 150k or less. :)

So your 15% might be nearer 20.

Only you can decide in the end though, and personal circumstances

play a large part in the decision.

ABB

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The first thing I would do is look at W Lad's website www.firsttimebuyerhelp.co.uk and read all the articles on the front page - so you get a understanding of it all.

Then look on here and look at the graph's page, and FAQs page.

Then come back and lets us know where you think the market is going...

... Personally I would hold fire (with out a doubt). Also get your partner to read the articles so you can talk it over!!!

Edited by Jason

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Firstly welcome :) Finding this site could be one of the most significant things of your financial life (even if you don't think so now).

You'll be getting a 30 year mortgage with the first few years being interest only. Is that normal? No. Most people tend to get a 25 year repayment mortgage. While that's fine if you choose to do it (the 30 years isn't a big deal but the inyterest-only is a warning sign), ask yourself this: Could you afford a 25 year repayment mortgage and if not then could other first time buyers in your area?

I suspect the answers are no and no. In which case what do you think will happen to those properties in your area? If no first time buyer can afford them then they will inevitably drop to a price where FTB's can afford them.

So my opinion is to wait. It's risky of course. But life is a series of difficult choices.

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Guest uberstuka
Seek and ye shall find.  I suggest you read this article on my website (and perhaps some of the other articles too) and then make up your own mind.

Warwickshire Lad, I can't thank you enough for the link. And BRAVO for such a stunningly informative site. I've just spent the last 2 hours over there and what I've read has confirmed all my doubts. I KNEW something was up!

I've been discussing the situation with my partner online (sending her links) and we're going to sleep on all this tonight, but in all honesty I believe our (collective) mind is made up.

We're pulling out of the sale and sitting tight.

A HUGE THANK-YOU for all your work. Greatly appreciated.

And all those who have already replied with their thoughts CHEERS! :) But don't stop, all opinions are welcome.

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You have nothing to lose by waiting awhile. Forget the VI spin - house pricse are, at best, stagnating; more likely falling steadily.

Carry on renting and save your money. Better opportunities will appear if you are patient.

Edited by Time 2 raise the rants

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You have nothing to lose by waiting awhile. Forget the VI spin - house pricse are, at best, stagnating; more likely falling steadily.

Carry on renting and save your money. Better opportunities will appear if you are patient.

Uberstuka, your in the same position in the same town as me and my partner. After coming close a couple of months ago on the purchase of house, we both feel its best to hold off and see what happens. Its true the amount of property coming on and staying on the market is unreal. Jackson Green & Preston have hundreds and hundreds of houses for sale, some with 10K reduced and still not selling. They can only come down surely.

There is a house on with JGP on Thirkleby Crescent with 10K reduced, but the neighbours extension in the back garden is an eye sore, stealing all the sun.

Hold off for now is our advice, the Estate Agents must be bricking it by now. Gonna be a long cold winter with no sales.

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Guest uberstuka
Uberstuka, your in the same position in the same town as me and my partner. After coming close a couple of months ago on the purchase of house, we both feel its best to hold off and see what happens. Its true the amount of property coming on and staying on the market is unreal. Jackson Green & Preston have hundreds and hundreds of houses for sale, some with 10K reduced and still not selling. They can only come down surely.

There is a house on with JGP on Thirkleby Crescent with 10K reduced, but the neighbours extension in the back garden is an eye sore, stealing all the sun.

Hold off for now is our advice, the Estate Agents must be bricking it by now. Gonna be a long cold winter with no sales.

Hi GY Hopeful, and thanks for taking the time to reply.

Funnily enough, the house we were on the verge of purchasing was with JGP. Many friends and family members have warned us about them; saying what a money grabbing pain in the **** they are. Like I said, the property we want (and we DEARLY wanted this) went on the Grimsby market August last year at £186K, and was reduced by £6K in January 2005. In that time the vendors have had several interested parties, but no one has actually gotten further than making an offer. The major problem the vendors are having is continuing collapsing chains. All the offers they have accepted have only been `in principle', as no one has yet sold their house, and they're finding it increasingly difficult to secure buyers. The only two offers that they had at this time - said by the agent over at JGP to be `substantially more than ours' - have since been retracted: one because of yet another collapsed chain, and the second because the vendor has not had a viewer visit his property since Feburary 2005 and he now feels the time to sell has passed; thus he's removed his property from the market.

For this reason alone - I feel - the vendors have accepted our offer of £170K. But this wasn't without some serious `haggling' (they're an old couple and even viewing the property was about as awkward as it could be).

JGP must be s***ting themselves about now.

Some further information that people on this forum may find interesting: After speaking at length with one of the most respected and succesful mortagage advisors in this town (she is also a property developer and finacial advisor), she expressed these views (I'll paraphrase her, but this is as close to what she said as I can recall):

"Because I work in three different `fields' concerning property I see this from every possible angle. Don't believe anything the estate agents or vendors are spinning you right now about the market. It's currently dead. More and more property is being listed with all the estate agents in town and a huge percentage is staying put. The EA's have all priced themselves out of the market, and this is now having a huge effect on sales.

A man came to me last week having had his house assessed for value by several estate agents. He was looking for the best deal to remortage his property after being told - via consensus - it was worth £168K. After sending in an indepedent surveyor he called me while in the property and said: "This house is not currently worth anything over £144K, I don't know how they've come up with £168K, because that is just ridiculous."

Their are no FTB's, and you are amongst the very, very few who have any kind of deposit; let alone such a sizable one. My FTB files are bulging at the seams, but none of them can get a mortgage. They're usually: boyfriend and girlfriend, both driving cars they don't own, with at least £3000.00 worth of credit card debt each; loans and rent to pay. The average FTB home is this area is £80K and they can only get a 100% mortgage worth £60K. So none of these can buy, thus many houses are not going anywhere until the prices come down.

Bacons estate agents [one of the biggest in Grimsby] are laying off 12 staff, and I've got clients of mine who work there and are asking me to liquidate their assests because the only way they can keep their jobs in the estate agent industry in this town is through `job share'. And this is a very real problem for them, they are not earning enough to sustain their current standard of living."

Now when I heard that this major player in property selling/development in Grimsby was having SUCH a hard time my own alarm bells went crazy. Estate agents being laid off!?! :o So I went into Bacons premises to ask a few questions myself. I overheard this conversation between a property developer and an agent working there (they obviously knew each other very well):

Property Developer (looking at the houses for sale): "This is a bloody game."

Estate agent: "What is?"

PD: "The market right now, look at it. I went to view two seperate properties this morning down the same road - 5 doors apart. Same size, same build, amost identical. One was priced at £166K, the other at £140K. Different agencies selling it, but still."

EA: [in a lower tone of voice] "We can't get it right, at the moment. No one knows what anything is actually worth right now. It's turning into something of nightmare. But what can we do?"

Erm.., reduce prices?

Enough said, really. They've no idea what they're doing and they're just (much as always) making it up.

All of this - coupled with gut instinct and all the infomation over at www.firsttimebuyerhlp.co.uk - has made up our minds: to buy now could be (even though we've found our dream house) a monumental f*** up of biblical proportions. The right thing to do is sit and wait, for at least another year. Accumulate more money for a larger deposit and observe.

All your comments on the above are really appreciated.

Cheer. :)

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Hi GY Hopeful, and thanks for taking the time to reply.

Funnily enough, the house we were on the verge of purchasing was with JGP. Many friends and family members have warned us about them; saying what a money grabbing pain in the **** they are. Like I said, the property we want (and we DEARLY wanted this) went on the Grimsby market August last year at £186K, and was reduced by £6K in January 2005. In that time the vendors have had several interested parties, but no one has actually gotten further than making an offer. The major problem the vendors are having is continuing collapsing chains. All the offers they have accepted have only been `in principle', as no one has yet sold their house, and they're finding it increasingly difficult to secure buyers. The only two offers that they had at this time - said by the agent over at JGP to be `substantially more than ours' - have since been retracted: one because of yet another collapsed chain, and the second because the vendor has not had a viewer visit his property since Feburary 2005 and he now feels the time to sell has passed; thus he's removed his property from the market.

For this reason alone  - I feel - the vendors have accepted our offer of £170K. But this wasn't without some serious `haggling' (they're an old couple and even viewing the property was about as awkward as it could be).

JGP must be s***ting themselves about now.

Some further information that people on this forum may find interesting: After speaking at length with one of the most respected and succesful mortagage advisors in this town (she is also a property developer and finacial advisor), she expressed these views (I'll paraphrase her, but this is as close to what she said as I can recall):

"Because I work in three different `fields' concerning property I see this from every possible angle. Don't believe anything the estate agents or vendors are spinning you right now about the market. It's currently dead. More and more property is being listed with all the estate agents in town and a huge percentage is staying put. The EA's have all priced themselves out of the market, and this is now having a huge effect on sales.

A man came to me last week having had his house assessed for value by several estate agents. He was looking for the best deal to remortage his property after being told - via consensus - it was worth £168K. After sending in an indepedent surveyor he called me while in the property and said: "This house is not currently worth anything over £144K, I don't know how they've come up with £168K, because that is just ridiculous."

Their are no FTB's, and you are amongst the very, very few who have any kind of deposit; let alone such a sizable one. My FTB files are bulging at the seams, but none of them can get a mortgage. They're usually: boyfriend and girlfriend, both driving cars they don't own, with at least £3000.00 worth of credit card debt each; loans and rent to pay. The average FTB home is this area is £80K and they can only get a 100% mortgage worth £60K. So none of these can buy, thus many houses are not going anywhere until the prices come down.

Bacons estate agents [one of the biggest in Grimsby] are laying off 12 staff, and I've got clients of mine who work there and are asking me to liquidate their assests because the only way they can keep their jobs in the estate agent industry in this town is through `job share'. And this is a very real problem for them, they are not earning enough to sustain their current standard of living."

Now when I heard that this major player in property selling/development in Grimsby was having SUCH a hard time my own alarm bells went crazy. Estate agents being laid off!?!  :o  So I went into Bacons premises to ask a few questions myself. I overheard this conversation between a property developer and an agent working there (they obviously knew each other very well):

Property Developer (looking at the houses for sale): "This is a bloody game."

Estate agent: "What is?"

PD: "The market right now, look at it. I went to view two seperate properties this morning down the same road - 5 doors apart. Same size, same build, amost identical. One was priced at £166K, the other at £140K. Different agencies selling it, but still."

EA: [in a lower tone of voice] "We can't get it right, at the moment. No one knows what anything is actually worth right now. It's turning into something of nightmare. But what can we do?"

Erm.., reduce prices?

Enough said, really. They've no idea what they're doing and they're just (much as always) making it up.

All of this - coupled with gut instinct and all the infomation over at www.firsttimebuyerhlp.co.uk - has made up our minds: to buy now could be (even though we've found our dream house) a monumental f*** up of biblical proportions. The right thing to do is sit and wait, for at least another year. Accumulate more money for a larger deposit and observe.

All your comments on the above are really appreciated.

Cheer. :)

Well said Uberstuka - very very good, sane, & measured advice. The EA's and VI's have milked it all for everything they can get for years now - and now it is pay back time. ALL FTB's out there - OFFER TO PAY 40% OF THE ASKING PRICE - AND STICK TO YOUR GUNS. See http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=12762

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Guest rigsby II
My situation: due to nothing more than f***king hard work, me and my partner have manage to save up a 10% deposit for a £170K house in Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire.

Print this link page out and stick it one yer wall. When you are thinking of putting in an offer, look at it again as a reminder.

http://www.thisisgrimsby.co.uk/displayNode...tentPK=12781353

"House prices are falling by up to 20 per cent throughout northern Lincolnshire."

Was in Lincolnshire t'other week, around the Wolds. Hundreds for sale, counted 5 sold signs.

You can always try a cheeky offer of £150K they can always say no, take it from there.

Its as dead as a dodo out there in NE Lincolnshire...

:)

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Also, 6.85% over 30 years is a BLOODY expensive rate and a huge commitment. Hold off, build that deposit and keep your powder dry for when it's needed.

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Im usually one for saying do whatever the hell you want but it would seem to me that you should wait.

Some people on here when asking for advice give the impression that to loose 15K of thier deposit would be an inconvieience, you like me probably value that 15K a little more. If youve worked hard for it dont squander it, sit this round out dont meet the stakes.

It will take a while mind you so pull up a comfy chair.

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Hi GY Hopeful, and thanks for taking the time to reply.

Funnily enough, the house we were on the verge of purchasing was with JGP. Many friends and family members have warned us about them; saying what a money grabbing pain in the **** they are. Like I said, the property we want (and we DEARLY wanted this) went on the Grimsby market August last year at £186K, and was reduced by £6K in January 2005. In that time the vendors have had several interested parties, but no one has actually gotten further than making an offer. The major problem the vendors are having is continuing collapsing chains. All the offers they have accepted have only been `in principle', as no one has yet sold their house, and they're finding it increasingly difficult to secure buyers. The only two offers that they had at this time - said by the agent over at JGP to be `substantially more than ours' - have since been retracted: one because of yet another collapsed chain, and the second because the vendor has not had a viewer visit his property since Feburary 2005 and he now feels the time to sell has passed; thus he's removed his property from the market.

For this reason alone  - I feel - the vendors have accepted our offer of £170K. But this wasn't without some serious `haggling' (they're an old couple and even viewing the property was about as awkward as it could be).

JGP must be s***ting themselves about now.

Some further information that people on this forum may find interesting: After speaking at length with one of the most respected and succesful mortagage advisors in this town (she is also a property developer and finacial advisor), she expressed these views (I'll paraphrase her, but this is as close to what she said as I can recall):

"Because I work in three different `fields' concerning property I see this from every possible angle. Don't believe anything the estate agents or vendors are spinning you right now about the market. It's currently dead. More and more property is being listed with all the estate agents in town and a huge percentage is staying put. The EA's have all priced themselves out of the market, and this is now having a huge effect on sales.

A man came to me last week having had his house assessed for value by several estate agents. He was looking for the best deal to remortage his property after being told - via consensus - it was worth £168K. After sending in an indepedent surveyor he called me while in the property and said: "This house is not currently worth anything over £144K, I don't know how they've come up with £168K, because that is just ridiculous."

Their are no FTB's, and you are amongst the very, very few who have any kind of deposit; let alone such a sizable one. My FTB files are bulging at the seams, but none of them can get a mortgage. They're usually: boyfriend and girlfriend, both driving cars they don't own, with at least £3000.00 worth of credit card debt each; loans and rent to pay. The average FTB home is this area is £80K and they can only get a 100% mortgage worth £60K. So none of these can buy, thus many houses are not going anywhere until the prices come down.

Bacons estate agents [one of the biggest in Grimsby] are laying off 12 staff, and I've got clients of mine who work there and are asking me to liquidate their assests because the only way they can keep their jobs in the estate agent industry in this town is through `job share'. And this is a very real problem for them, they are not earning enough to sustain their current standard of living."

Now when I heard that this major player in property selling/development in Grimsby was having SUCH a hard time my own alarm bells went crazy. Estate agents being laid off!?!  :o  So I went into Bacons premises to ask a few questions myself. I overheard this conversation between a property developer and an agent working there (they obviously knew each other very well):

Property Developer (looking at the houses for sale): "This is a bloody game."

Estate agent: "What is?"

PD: "The market right now, look at it. I went to view two seperate properties this morning down the same road - 5 doors apart. Same size, same build, amost identical. One was priced at £166K, the other at £140K. Different agencies selling it, but still."

EA: [in a lower tone of voice] "We can't get it right, at the moment. No one knows what anything is actually worth right now. It's turning into something of nightmare. But what can we do?"

Erm.., reduce prices?

Enough said, really. They've no idea what they're doing and they're just (much as always) making it up.

All of this - coupled with gut instinct and all the infomation over at www.firsttimebuyerhlp.co.uk - has made up our minds: to buy now could be (even though we've found our dream house) a monumental f*** up of biblical proportions. The right thing to do is sit and wait, for at least another year. Accumulate more money for a larger deposit and observe.

All your comments on the above are really appreciated.

Cheer. :)

Excellent post Uberstuka, shows the facts we are dealing with in Grimsby at the minute. Had a quick look with JGP, is it the Rufford Road property your into?? Looks nice, but would sure take some filling.

My advice (for what its worth) is to wait another 6 months and get it for 140 - 150K

Good Luck, happy house hunting and be ruthless with your offers.

GY hopefull

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I have been watching prices in my area (West Yorkshire) and they have held pretty well. True that they are not going up any more but they are not coming down that much either.

The amount of properties still for sale around my locaility( Halifax) is not excessive and demand is still there for those that are coming up for sale. I will admit that houses are moving slowly but they are selling.

My advice for what it is worth is that pay what you can afford and take a long term view when buying a home. If you know that your home is going to be worth more in 25 years time than what you are paying for it now then buy it.

You just have to look at history - 90's prices dropped but look where they are now.

The good news is that interest rates are coming down !!

I got this from teletext news.

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Their are no FTB's, and you are amongst the very, very few who have any kind of deposit; let alone such a sizable one. My FTB files are bulging at the seams, but none of them can get a mortgage. They're usually: boyfriend and girlfriend, both driving cars they don't own, with at least £3000.00 worth of credit card debt each; loans and rent to pay. The average FTB home is this area is £80K and they can only get a 100% mortgage worth £60K. So none of these can buy, thus many houses are not going anywhere until the prices come down.

So true - your anecdote is so good that I've bookmarked it.

People of all generations, including young people of FTB age have got into very large amounts of debt on credit cards and finance deals having bought cars, mobile phones and other items when a generation ago, money would have been prudently saved as a deposit for a house.

I think that many young people out there now see house buying as so expensive that they've simply resigned themselves to never buying, and have spent the money they would have spent on that house deposit on other things.

There is simply no money anymore to prop up this speculative Baby Boomer-led housing bubble.

I still think it's hard to say how fast house prices will fall - but whilst young people are in so much debt that is not even house-related - property prices will surely carry on falling and for a long, long time.

And in this sort of situation, I hardly think that a single quarter-point cut in Interest Rates is going to make one iota of difference to the bigger picture out there.

Edited by Warwickshire Lad

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I have been watching prices in my area (West Yorkshire) and they have held pretty well. True that they are not going up any more but they are not coming down that much either.

The amount of properties still for sale around my locaility(  Halifax) is not excessive and demand is still there for those that are coming up for sale. I will admit that houses are moving slowly but they are selling.

Do you have any figures to back up these statements ? Assuming its true (which Im not smilewinkgrin.gif) then its probably just the tail-end of the ripple-effect and these relative latecomers to HPI will soon be turning down as part of the process already underway further south.

My advice for what it is worth is that pay what you can afford and take a long term view when buying a home. If you know that your home is going to be worth more in 25 years time than what you are paying for it now then buy it.

Now you sound like Property Guru, or any other ea for that matter lol.gif

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My advice for what it is worth is that pay what you can afford and take a long term view when buying a home. If you know that your home is going to be worth more in 25 years time than what you are paying for it now then buy it.

Two points:-

1) is that before or after inflation is taken into effect?

2) What looks like a reasonable monthly amount at 3.29% doesn't look so good when the fixed rate runs out and the current best offer is 4.49%. For reference thats not estimates that is the best rate from 2003 vs the best rate now (taken from todays Times). Its roughly a 30% increase in monthly repayments so you really should leave some leeway within your budget.

Even that 4.49 is a good deal. It was nearer 4.8% two months ago.

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You seem a very smart fella Uberstuka, so stick go with your instincts and sit tight for a good while yet. The housing market is looking into an abyss never witnessed before, and any FTB now will be taking on a lifetime of debt.

There are so many desperate landlords out there that you're the boss. Having a buy-to-let idiot subsidise you is the way to go for the foreseeable future and, if you find somewhere you'd like to call home for a couple of years, build in a 2yr clause on the lease. As you have the cash, offer 6months up front and negotiate 20-30% off the asking price, they'll snatch your hand off. Heck, there are that many desperate BTL landlords around, you could even ask them to come round and wash the car and mow the lawn once a fortnight.

As I say, make hay while the sun shines (terrible cliche, I know), but in a few years time you'll reap the benefits. The properties you're looking at now will be half the price in the not-too-distant future.

Btw, I'm not a vested interest as I recently moved overseas and don't see myself living back in the UK for the next decade. I just hate what's going on at the moment and bright young people, such as yourself, should know the truth.

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Guest consa
I at least think that whatever decision you make (heard of gazundering?) you can do better with the IR you're being offered.

There are plenty of reasonably low fixed rates around, why aren't you looking at those?

I'm sure there is ttrtr, you could offer me a 0% deal and I wouldn't take it at the moment.

Who in their right mind will want to buy into a falling market? save your typing finger, this guy is not so stupid as to get suckered in to the black hole of financial misery for life.

Why not hold off? prices aren't going up!!

To take a mortgage with IO for 3 years gets you nowhere in that time, except exposes you to the falling market.

Where is the bottom of the market? A long way off, hence he will save thousands by renting and waiting, the accumulated/compounded interest over the span of the mortgage to what will be saved will be enormous.

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Guest uberstuka

I'm so grateful for all your replies. They've helped clarify so much, and have also being paramount in helping me make my decision to stay put and continue to rent for the next 12 months at least.

a HUGE slap on the back for all of you, and if I could buy you all a beer....., ;)

CHEERS! :D

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I'm so grateful for all your replies. They've helped clarify so much, and have also being paramount in helping me make my decision to stay put and continue to rent for the next 12 months at least.

a HUGE slap on the back for all of you, and if I could buy you all a beer....., ;)

CHEERS! :D

Well I seem to recall there is an HPC meetup sometime in August :lol:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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