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House Price Crash Forum

News From The Front. It's Not Good.


leftofcentre

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HOLA441

Hi folks, some real experience from the field.

We were thinking of buying a house in Belfast, here is the experience of 2 houses we looked at. Both are typical 3 bed semis in Belfast.

Both where on the market for £166k.

House number 1 went on the market for 2 weeks ago, and today it seems to be sold for 165k. There was 5 parties interested in it.

The second house is the one were are interested in but i was thinking of paying 140k, but the agent is saying there is similar interest in it, and it might go to 160k.

Now i know some of this can be EA talking up, but i got a developer chap i know to ring up and find out the score, he confirmed it all. He also said property is moving and he personally is buying again, as are other developers/investors.

To be honest I was stunned, even at 140k i thought it was a premium.

So it seems buyers are coming back into the market. Personally i think this is a false rebound, i think i will wait till next year before looking again. It seems people never learn and some people are still keen to pay high prices. It probaully shows that in the property market there is as much emotion as economics. I personally think there is at least another 10-20% fall still to come.

I know this is only my experience do let me know if you hear otherwise.

Brian

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HOLA442

Hi folks, some real experience from the field.

We were thinking of buying a house in Belfast, here is the experience of 2 houses we looked at. Both are typical 3 bed semis in Belfast.

Both where on the market for £166k.

House number 1 went on the market for 2 weeks ago, and today it seems to be sold for 165k. There was 5 parties interested in it.

The second house is the one were are interested in but i was thinking of paying 140k, but the agent is saying there is similar interest in it, and it might go to 160k.

Now i know some of this can be EA talking up, but i got a developer chap i know to ring up and find out the score, he confirmed it all. He also said property is moving and he personally is buying again, as are other developers/investors.

To be honest I was stunned, even at 140k i thought it was a premium.

So it seems buyers are coming back into the market. Personally i think this is a false rebound, i think i will wait till next year before looking again. It seems people never learn and some people are still keen to pay high prices. It probaully shows that in the property market there is as much emotion as economics. I personally think there is at least another 10-20% fall still to come.

I know this is only my experience do let me know if you hear otherwise.

Brian

Don't worry, Doccyboy spotted a house being advertised for sale on the free ads website Gumtree, so we can be rest assured the crash is far from over

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HOLA443

Don't worry, Doccyboy spotted a house being advertised for sale on the free ads website Gumtree, so we can be rest assured the crash is far from over

Doesn't compute. Sorry, I think that's the wrong assumption.

Vendors hate estate agents taking a 2% cut of the sale for doing bugger all. You wouldn't use one unless you had to.

In a buoyant market with lots of buyers, you'd feel comfortable about selling it yourself for your desired price, and keeping the 2%.

In a depressed market, you'd employ an agent to fight to get the best price for you, even if they do charge.

DIY selling on Gumtree suggests confidence in the market (or someone in NE who needs every penny).

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HOLA444

Hi folks, some real experience from the field.

We were thinking of buying a house in Belfast, here is the experience of 2 houses we looked at. Both are typical 3 bed semis in Belfast.

Both where on the market for £166k.

House number 1 went on the market for 2 weeks ago, and today it seems to be sold for 165k. There was 5 parties interested in it.

The second house is the one were are interested in but i was thinking of paying 140k, but the agent is saying there is similar interest in it, and it might go to 160k.

Now i know some of this can be EA talking up, but i got a developer chap i know to ring up and find out the score, he confirmed it all. He also said property is moving and he personally is buying again, as are other developers/investors.

To be honest I was stunned, even at 140k i thought it was a premium.

So it seems buyers are coming back into the market. Personally i think this is a false rebound, i think i will wait till next year before looking again. It seems people never learn and some people are still keen to pay high prices. It probaully shows that in the property market there is as much emotion as economics. I personally think there is at least another 10-20% fall still to come.

I know this is only my experience do let me know if you hear otherwise.

Brian

For every semi at £160K asking price there are another 10 still at £180K-£200K. I think that because there are relatively few houses on the market near reasonable prices, they look like good value, particularly with current interest rates and so are attracting competition. Whether this would still be the case with more sellers dropping their prices remains to be seen.

Given that the bidding still only met the (relatively low for the market sector) asking price, I suspect that the competition is not just as fierce as it seems and may only be from the cash-rich that don't need a deposit or mortgage - not the average buyer still required for a 'normal' market. It's hard to tell.

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HOLA445

im seeing more activity in bt9 for sure

townhouse priced at 430k btwcairns (rv 420k) which was on with a different EA @ 450k after various reductions has sold today and was only listed on saturday.

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r=1&c=450&s=79223090&i=1&p=ECSECS19273&fp=1&sort=added

danesfort hall 4 story new build semis - gerry oconnor - 450k . 3 sold inlast 2 months after nothing sold for months and months

i enquired on something on at 365k (rv 350k) detatched in bt9 needs a lot of work. has an offer of 435k on it!

especially noticed Templeton Robinson get a lot of sales of late

just a look at bt9 on propertynews definately feels that anything well priced is starting to shift in the last month or so. definately more realisim in prices and more selling going on

Edited by getdoon_weebobby
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HOLA446

I can't call my self an expert but here is my current opinion.

There is no doubt that banks are giving out 5x joint salary mortgages if you have a decent deposit, thanks to Mr Brown giving out our future taxes to encourage banks to continue to lend irresponsibly. The whole credit crunch was not the crash, all that has happened is we had a little delay while people saved/sourced deposit and built confidence to spend again, the main source of the boom has not gone away. Yes they are a little tighter on self certs, and low earners etc but in the UK thats about it, the fundamentals of easy credit still point to high prices, deposits only represent a delay to the system.

The Gov't has helped the banks hold up house prices so that they can repossess the liar loans and others that are struggling. Of course when the interest rates go up again the new buyers of the last few years will start defaulting. Will that cause a drop in prices? I don't know, some probably. Right now I think the only thing that will do anything significant is salary multiple type credit restrictions, otherwise its tax payer funding more borrowing all the way until Japanese style deficit and untested default. Something big in finance will happen, perhaps China removing the peg on the dollar or something we didn't expect. All I know is we can't run a country in an economy that doesn't add any value, selling houses and money to each other.

Something funny is going on, down south mortgages are tight for good earner with deposits, the US went very low and still dropping AFAIK, whats so good about the UK?

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HOLA447

My panic is over regarding rising prices.

I had been looking at a property advertised as prices around £90k

Capital Value Non-Exempt: £85,000.00

Property Type: Semi Detached

Property Size: 98.00 Square Metres

Central Heating: Yes

Garage: No

Description: House Outbuilding Garden

It sold last week for £63k

I'll probably wait out the Winter, continue to build my depsosit then go for something late Jan/ early Feb time

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