Uk Gdp -0.4% Qrt 3 - +0.2% Expected Frig!

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/23/79341/gdp-shock-flop/

[thedebtisreal]

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/23/79341/gdp-shock-flop/

shock

[D.C.]

Even Auntie Pravda has the story, it's one of the most read

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8321970.stm

What happened to the recovereh?

Spunk £200 billion in deficit spending and you still can't manufacture a recovery, truly impressive.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

shock

Shock Flop.

You really do wonder whether any of the analysts in The City have any intelligence atall! Mad as hatters the lot of them.

If that's where Britain's 'talent' has gone, I really do worry.

Some of the comments from the banking bigwigs have been extremely dire to put it mildly. Bordering on apocalyptic.

Edited October 23, 2009 by gruffydd

[Gone baby gone]

"Longest on record"

I wonder if Gordo will be tacking that onto every speech he gives now, like his old mantra about his x months of continuous growth.

[Gone baby gone]

You really do wonder whether any of the analysts in The City have any intelligence atall! Mad as hatters the lot of them.

Being an analyst is just like giving out tips on the gee-gees, except you need a better suit.

[Hoggums]

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/23/79341/gdp-shock-flop/

Markets are up since announcement. Obviously bad news is the new good news.

Edited October 23, 2009 by Hoggums

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

Good news - more QE - yippeeeeee

I love this comment on the FT

This reminds me of watching a horror movie. When it gets too nasty, we turn and look away, so it doesn't affect us. These numbers are proof that something terrible is happening in the background, but if we ignore them, they might not be there. It's a societal psychosis.

[Captain Cavey]

Even Auntie Pravda has the story, it's one of the most read

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8321970.stm

What happened to the recovereh?

Spunk £200 billion in deficit spending and you still can't manufacture a recovery, truly impressive.

Wow, a quick turn around from Pravda – they’ve been ramping the expected green shoots agenda all morning.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

Being an analyst is just like giving out tips on the gee-gees, except you need a better suit.

Absolutely correct!

[Meerkat]

... yes, woud love to see the spin put on this data. Not even stasticians could hide the reality. The man must be truly fooked. Well, of the 33 economists that gave forecasts with the median being +0.2%, the worst forecast was 0.0%, the most optimistic - +0.7%. No wonder pound had a cardiac arrest, 2% down against EUR in 2h time

[Captain Cavey]

Edited October 23, 2009 by Captain Cavey

[Sybil13]

"Longest on record"

I wonder if Gordo will be tacking that onto every speech he gives now, like his old mantra about his x months of continuous growth.

If the IMF recently said LINK

The more fundamental reason why prices might start falling again is that, by most measures, they are still significantly over-valued.

That's the IMF's conclusion in its latest World Economic Outlook, out yesterday. It says the typical housing boom lasts six years and sees house prices in real terms go up by about 50%. Downturns last five years, during which time house prices in real terms fall about 24%.

AND

Taking the Nationwide’s figures, the 1997 to 2007 boom saw prices rise by 147 per cent in real terms. Within that, prices rose 76 per cent between 2001 and 2007

AND BOE has said Recession will be the worst in history

...he indicated that the financial crisis had been of a scale that rivalled anything previously witnessed in history. “We’ve been through an extraordinary financial crisis,” he said.

“One doesn’t need to ask questions about 'the worst since when’ since it may be hard to find any period in which it was actually worse.”

AND NOW WE HAVE "LONGEST RECESSION ON RECORD"

So is this going to be the worst and longest recession but also the only one where house prices go up?

[CokeSnortingTory]

It's the old Kubler-Ross cycle in action.

Denial > Anger > Bargaining > Depression > Acceptance.

I think the bargaining period is now coming to an end.

[Cidersid]

From the BBC

Awful'

The £175bn already announced for the quantitative easing programme will have been spent by next month, so the strength of the third quarter GDP number will be important in deciding whether to extend it.

Indeed, at the Bank's current rate of spending, it is expected to have spent the whole £175bn in the next week.

As the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting, at which quantitative easing decisions are taken, is not until 4 November, that would leave it with a week with no extra cash to pump into the economy.

The figures were "awful with no positive news" according to James Knightley at ING.

"This clearly suggests that the likelihood of an expansion in quantitative easing by £50bn or so over the next quarter is rising, although [it] is not a foregone conclusion."

Petrol on a burning fire springs to mind???

Or even 'da S*** is going to hit the fan soon!!!'

[shindigger]

Even Auntie Pravda has the story, it's one of the most read

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8321970.stm

What happened to the recovereh?

Spunk £200 billion in deficit spending and you still can't manufacture a recovery, truly impressive.

Pravdas second question to Osbourne. "A return to growth would have damaged you politically wouldnt it"?

Pathetic.

[Sour Mash]

Markets are up since announcement. Obviously bad news is the new good news.

That's because worse economic news means more QE and the continuation of mentally low interest rates for quite some time.

i.e. More debasement of the currency, hence actual assets will be 'worth' more in nominal terms.

[Dorkins]

You can already see the thought processes whizzing away in number 10 and the BoE... "Hmm, raping the pound and future taxpayers doesn't seem to be working, we're obviously not raping hard enough!"

[fluffy666]

You can already see the thought processes whizzing away in number 10 and the BoE... "Hmm, raping the pound and future taxpayers doesn't seem to be working, we're obviously not raping hard enough!"

Or: How come all of those people who are either newly unemployed, just hanging on, or have had their pay frozen/cut are refusing to increase consumer spending?

[enrieb]

The before and after of public disinformation. They seed the newstory about the recession being over, post the story on the internet and probably broadcast news reports all at the time of day when people are going to work. The real story comes out at 10am and has a very similar headline and format to the original piece. The brain quickly scans headlines and sentences to see if new information is present and would be likely, at first glance, to ignore a headline to a story thats been read before.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priming_(psychology)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8320373.stm

UK expected to exit its recession

Friday, 23 October 2009 08:14 UK

Figures due later on Friday are expected to show that the UK economy grew slightly from July to September, meaning the recession is over. The figure for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is likely to show the first economic growth since early 2008.

But analysts have said the result will be close and that the economy may even have continued to contract.

GDP measures the total amount of goods and services produced by a country. The figure at 0930 BST is expected to show growth of between zero and 0.2%. The UK economy has been contracting for at least the last five quarters, from the beginning of April 2008 until the end of June 2009.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8321970.stm

UK economy is still in recession

Friday, 23 October 2009 10:00 UK

The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% between July and September, according to official figures, meaning the country is still in recession. It is the first time UK gross domestic product (GDP) has contracted for six consecutive quarters, since quarterly figures were first recorded in 1955.

But the figures could still be revised up or down at a later date, because this figure is only the first estimate.

GDP measures the total amount of goods and services produced by a country. Quarterly growth of 0.2% had been expected in the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), although expectations had been tempered by recent figures showing no growth in retail sales in September, and a 2.5% decline in industrial output in August.

The unexpected decline in the services sector was the key factor behind the drop, with the distribution, catering and hotels sector performing particularly badly. The economy contracted 5.2% compared with the same period last year, which was marginally better than the record figure of 5.5% in the previous three months.

The worse-than-expected GDP figures are likely to make the Bank of England consider extending its policy of quantitative easing.

So the question this raises is, worse than expected by who?

[Sour Mash]

If the IMF recently said LINK

AND

AND BOE has said Recession will be the worst in history

AND NOW WE HAVE "LONGEST RECESSION ON RECORD"

So is this going to be the worst and longest recession but also the only one where house prices go up?

If you can debase the currency enough, you can support the nominal price of any asset however overpriced they might originally have been.

Of course, you also need to be psychotic/ stupid/ desperate enough to completely trash the economy in the longer term by introducing strong inflation which in all likelihood will get completely out of control.

[Dorkins]

Here's the sectoral contributions to GDP growth:

Big risers... GOVERNMENT AND FINANCE

Edit: full report http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/gdp1009.pdf

Edited October 23, 2009 by Dorkins

[MinceBalls]

of the 33 economists that gave forecasts with the median being +0.2%, the worst forecast was 0.0%, the most optimistic - +0.7%.

So the same economists who got the recession completely and utterly wrong have now got the latest GDP figures completely wrong. What a supprise!

Seems to me people have been believing the cr@p they have been fed and not even bothered to look at the underlying problems.

Still, the FTSE is up and that must mean everything is hunkydory (according to idiots on radio 5).

Luckily the BBC fed the BNP to the lions last night so there is enough smokescreen to cover this mess.

[Sour Mash]

Here's the sectoral contributions to GDP growth:

Big risers... GOVERNMENT AND FINANCE

Edit: full report http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/gdp1009.pdf

I can just see how the wheels of Gordon's brain will be turning:

"Excellent - so we just need to print even more money then to give to the banks and to bolster public spending and we'll be out of recession in no time! Clearly the strategy works, we just haven't done enough of it."

[Minos]

Cyclops tickin all your boxes.

He will be the most reviled PM of modern times.

This countrys future sacrificed on the altar of his naked ambition and nothing else.

A coward the likes of which we have never seen before.

He's not a coward. His desire is to bring communism (call it socialism if it tastes better) to these shores. He's achieving those goals rapidly. It's funny, on HPC everyone assumes he doesn't know what he is doing. He knows exactly what he is doing.