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looks that way, honestly, i know loads of people are buying now, and saying not waiting anymore, and just going for it,

crazy i know, but people are now saying phase 2 coming soon, couple more years then bingo

not going to turn bull, but really nothing is happening

There will be no identifiable 'phase 2'. I don't think that any major incidents or turning points are necessary - those have already happened. The unprecedented stimulus packages still being unrolled across the global economy are evidence enough of that - and we must be thankful for them; what would have happened to the global system of payments without this state intervention does not bear thinking about...

If you'll allow an extended metaphor - the addict had overdosed on the opiate of heavily leveraged credit, and ended up in the intensive care unit where a resuscitation and emergency withdrawal was managed (more by luck than best practice). The patient is now doing well on the slow-drip methadone of ZIRP and QE, but remains in the high dependency ward.

However, one of the first rules of economics is: 'that which is not sustainable will not be sustained'. So, at some point the stimulus itself (the methadone) will have to be withdrawn, carefully - the markets mustn't be spooked and the public mustn't be subjected to any sharp discontinuities.

We are now, and will be for the next decade-or-so 'boiling a frog'.

The attitude of those participating as buyers and sellers in the property market at the moment is denial-driven - it has a lot to do with wishful thinking and is anachronistic. This momentum-sentiment driven activity in the market says much more about the inability of people to react to important changes that occur gradually than it does about the underlying, fundamental and real state of the market. Those participating are not those who are rushing to assets because of inflation fears - I doubt they even know what that means! Do you think that they read the FT, or even watch the Money Programme? Newsnight? Sky News, more likely! If even that.

They believe that it's still 2007 (or that it should be); they haven't noticed that the the ground has shifted beneath their feet and that the world has changed. They continue to mistake debt for ownership, to conflate consumption with happiness and to confuse buying a lifestyle with actually leading a life. These things have already changed (the smart money has noticed) - it's just that the hoi-polloi have yet to perceive that the bearings of the hedonic treadmill have seized. The trick which the politicians must pull is to adjust the polity and populace to the new realities without them noticing too much. Austerity by stealth.

In my opinion, the last year has seen a sort of 'phoney war' over the implications of the banking crisis for the business cycle. At the risk of cliché, I don't think we've even seen 'the end of the beginning' yet. That point will only be reached when the Chancellor in a new, post-election government delivers the necessary 'emergency budget' which will be the first item of business for the new administration. It is already easy for us to imagine what the content of this budget will be, and as the time draws closer, it will be heavily trailed, leaked and floated. One of the remarkable characteristics of the human condition is that we can get used to just about anything, if given enough time.

'There is no way in which one can buck the market.' Who was it said that, again? It's not that there's trouble ahead; rather that we are, right now, living through a profound paradigm-shift. It's just that it's happening in slow motion. Just as we cannot easily perceive the progress of the hour-hand around the clock-face by staring at it, yet the day inevitably passes nonetheless.

A rare prediction from me: Over the medium to long term, mortgages (and other forms of personal indebtedness) will return to being seen (rightly) as an albatross around the neck and a shackle on the ankle - the models of private home ownership driven by high LTV debt we've been used to just don't work when there's not the effective demand in the labour market to provoke wage inflation. Slowly, ever so slowly, the public's attitude to home ownership will return to something resembling that in the 1970's, or that in the majority of advanced economies - it's not for everyone, it's not a right - it's a huge risk that can bankrupt you. George Osbourne is quite right when he says: "We're all in it together". I would add: "Yes, but we've all got to work it out for ourselves!"

Of course, I could be wrong.

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Everything seems to have ground to a halt... no more bad news... no more panic sales from M&S, no more worries about banks going bust... The bad news is disappearing by the day...

The same dozen threads seem to dominate the first page in this forum - nothing new then?

Is, dare I say it, the battle lost and the war in doubt?

I have to say I feel pretty much like you do. What the f*ck will it take?! We had an epic credit crunch, banks being bailed out by the government, printing presses turned on - never in the dark days of 2003 to 2007 did I expect anything as draconian as that ... and what did we get?

Next to f*ck all. A 10% drop. A 15% drop. And now the talk is all of price rises.

We're in the happy position of having a room at the back of the house which is for the use of the kids - there's a couple of sofas in there, telly, music system etc. My eldest son, who is 20, often has friends round in the evening. So, despite being an old fart myself, I get the opportunity to talk to lots of different youngsters. They're a great bunch - but they're pretty much all doing medium to dead-end jobs. I listen to them laughing sometimes and I think 'your poor buggers, you have no idea what you'll be up against in a few years time when you want to settle down. A lifetime of debt slavery.'

I can see that me and Mum are going to have to feck off somewhere and buy some little grothole to live in, so we can give them some money to take the sting of this nutty situation. What will it take?

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Its the crashless depression.

:o 'she' used the 'd' word Mr. Mainwaring!

& she is absolutely right. It's just so phoney

It's so depressing. I'm 26 and have been renting since I was 22 during this time i've managed to save up around £7,500

emmkay, please seriously into getting those savings out of Sterling & into something more 'substantial'. This might be the time to be brave; though I am much older than you & don't have that long to go if I screw up & talk is cheap.

Also NB:- Not all of us older ones took part in the credit fest that has wrecked the UK

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I'd be curious to know your views on this ... 'How is the economy/housing market affected by the fact that probably not 1 person in a thousand, maybe not even 1 in 10,000, would have any idea what you are talking about and, as a result, never give those matters a second thought. They think Gordon Brown has fixed it and it's business as usual.'

"You never miss your water 'till your well runs dry"

The well (which would otherwise be dry) is being filled by Gilt issuance and other unsustainable emergency measures. You are right to point out that the 'slines have no idea what this means. They just keep going to the well... because they can. For now.

When the well runs dry, as it will once QE, ZIRP, asset sales, currency exchange manipulation, etc etc are over and done, the 'slines will wail and gnash: "Oh no! We shouldn't have taken so much from the well! If only we'd thought about the future!"

"That which is not sustainable will not be sustained."

Edited by The McGlashan
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But these people are often the ones who did acurately predict the financial crash.

It's easy to be right once. Show me a commentator who predicted the crash AND the subsequent rescue, made money from the crash, the rescue and has a plausible story about the future based on fundamentals.

Closest I can think of is hugh hendry, but he doesn't quite tick the box of making money during the rescue rally.

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There will be no identifiable 'phase 2'. I don't think that any major incidents or turning points are necessary - those have already happened. The unprecedented stimulus packages still being unrolled across the global economy are evidence enough of that - and we must be thankful for them; what would have happened to the global system of payments without this state intervention does not bear thinking about...

If you'll allow an extended metaphor - the addict had overdosed on the opiate of heavily leveraged credit, and ended up in the intensive care unit where a resuscitation and emergency withdrawal was managed (more by luck than best practice). The patient is now doing well on the slow-drip methadone of ZIRP and QE, but remains in the high dependency ward.

However, one of the first rules of economics is: 'that which is not sustainable will not be sustained'. So, at some point the stimulus itself (the methadone) will have to be withdrawn, carefully - the markets mustn't be spooked and the public mustn't be subjected to any sharp discontinuities.

We are now, and will be for the next decade-or-so 'boiling a frog'.

The attitude of those participating as buyers and sellers in the property market at the moment is denial-driven - it has a lot to do with wishful thinking and is anachronistic. This momentum-sentiment driven activity in the market says much more about the inability of people to react to important changes that occur gradually than it does about the underlying, fundamental and real state of the market. Those participating are not those who are rushing to assets because of inflation fears - I doubt they even know what that means! Do you think that they read the FT, or even watch the Money Programme? Newsnight? Sky News, more likely! If even that.

They believe that it's still 2007 (or that it should be); they haven't noticed that the the ground has shifted beneath their feet and that the world has changed. They continue to mistake debt for ownership, to conflate consumption with happiness and to confuse buying a lifestyle with actually leading a life. These things have already changed (the smart money has noticed) - it's just that the hoi-polloi have yet to perceive that the bearings of the hedonic treadmill have seized. The trick which the politicians must pull is to adjust the polity and populace to the new realities without them noticing too much. Austerity by stealth.

In my opinion, the last year has seen a sort of 'phoney war' over the implications of the banking crisis for the business cycle. At the risk of cliché, I don't think we've even seen 'the end of the beginning' yet. That point will only be reached when the Chancellor in a new, post-election government delivers the necessary 'emergency budget' which will be the first item of business for the new administration. It is already easy for us to imagine what the content of this budget will be, and as the time draws closer, it will be heavily trailed, leaked and floated. One of the remarkable characteristics of the human condition is that we can get used to just about anything, if given enough time.

'There is no way in which one can buck the market.' Who was it said that, again? It's not that there's trouble ahead; rather that we are, right now, living through a profound paradigm-shift. It's just that it's happening in slow motion. Just as we cannot easily perceive the progress of the hour-hand around the clock-face by staring at it, yet the day inevitably passes nonetheless.

A rare prediction from me: Over the medium to long term, mortgages (and other forms of personal indebtedness) will return to being seen (rightly) as an albatross around the neck and a shackle on the ankle - the models of private home ownership driven by high LTV debt we've been used to just don't work when there's not the effective demand in the labour market to provoke wage inflation. Slowly, ever so slowly, the public's attitude to home ownership will return to something resembling that in the 1970's, or that in the majority of advanced economies - it's not for everyone, it's not a right - it's a huge risk that can bankrupt you. George Osbourne is quite right when he says: "We're all in it together". I would add: "Yes, but we've all got to work it out for ourselves!"

Of course, I could be wrong.

I'd be curious to know your views on this ... 'How is the economy/housing market affected by the fact that probably not 1 person in a thousand, maybe not even 1 in 10,000, would have any idea what you are talking about and, as a result, never give those matters a second thought. They think Gordon Brown has fixed it and it's business as usual.'

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Everything seems to have ground to a halt... no more bad news... no more panic sales from M&S, no more worries about banks going bust... The bad news is disappearing by the day...

The same dozen threads seem to dominate the first page in this forum - nothing new then?

Is, dare I say it, the battle lost and the war in doubt?

that WAS the crash. with rightmove now reporting prices bouncing back many canny investors have held firm and are reaping the rewards of bricks and mortar. with an uptake of mortgages reported by the CML and uk business surveys reporting the return of the feel good factor, i guess that was the great crash of 08. now is the time to invest your savings cannily into the property ladder as you can now see its as safe as 'houses'. id expect a return to +10% annual house prices rises now the recovery is finally here.

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Damn, forgot:-

Is Anything Happening?

I've just become a Ryanair virgin because of the Panorama induced free online check-in.

Isn't that a 'Happening'?

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:o 'she' used the 'd' word Mr. Mainwaring!

& she is absolutely right. It's just so phoney

emmkay, please seriously into getting those savings out of Sterling & into something more 'substantial'. This might be the time to be brave; though I am much older than you & don't have that long to go if I screw up & talk is cheap.

Also NB:- Not all of us older ones took part in the credit fest that has wrecked the UK

I know not all of the older generation are the blame, I probably shouldn't have said that. As for alternative savings well i'm open to suggestions. My friend recommended an Icelandic savings account. :)

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that WAS the crash. with rightmove now reporting prices bouncing back many canny investors have held firm and are reaping the rewards of bricks and mortar. with an uptake of mortgages reported by the CML and uk business surveys reporting the return of the feel good factor, i guess that was the great crash of 08. now is the time to invest your savings cannily into the property ladder as you can now see its as safe as 'houses'. id expect a return to +10% annual house prices rises now the recovery is finally here.

what's your favorite No-Money-Down technique to defraud - err creatively exploit - banks

Do you think I should invest my granny's life-savings in a studio-flat in middlesborough? no risk really...

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what's your favorite No-Money-Down technique to defraud - err creatively exploit - banks

Do you think I should invest my granny's life-savings in a studio-flat in middlesborough? no risk really...

theres no creation in it. the property ladder has always been the best investment for any canny investor. bricks and mortar have enjoyed continual returns over your lifetime due to under supply and rising overseas interest in london property investments. prices in london are surging ahead once again and this pattern is set to repeat itself over and over. renting is dead money. you should be turning that 'payment' into an 'investment'.

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It's easy to be right once. Show me a commentator who predicted the crash AND the subsequent rescue, made money from the crash, the rescue and has a plausible story about the future based on fundamentals.

I don't think it was that easy, because predictions of that sort involve taking a risk wih reputation, having the guts to actually come out and say it. How many people in nice safe positions chose instead to keep quiet and let the chips fall where they may?. Prescience is worthless without the ability and courage to take the risk of being wrong.

There was a lot of ridicule and derision heaped on those who dared to question the 'great moderation'- they were portrayed as idiots and doom mongers. So I will listen to those who had the courage to stand against the herd, rather than those who chose to take the money and say nothing, or were too dumb to see it coming at all.

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If they did, don't you think he'd be doing better in the polls?

Personally, I have no idea what will happen next. Hence I am now a neither, but I still feel no pressure to buy so people are welcome to it if its that important.

well with prices rising all over the country your going to miss the boat again....!!

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theres no creation in it. the property ladder has always been the best investment for any canny investor. bricks and mortar have enjoyed continual returns over your lifetime due to under supply and rising overseas interest in london property investments. prices in london are surging ahead once again and this pattern is set to repeat itself over and over. renting is dead money. you should be turning that 'payment' into an 'investment'.

DSS holiday villages will be the way to go.

Watch this space.

I know not all of the older generation are the blame, I probably shouldn't have said that. As for alternative savings well i'm open to suggestions. My friend recommended an Icelandic savings account.

Yes you should, for the Wilsons alone.

As for alternative savings suggestions, I'm not qualified to answer, but paper money does not look like the place to be, so I followed the yellow brick road two years back. Scariest thing I've ever done mentally but I've felt much calmer about Brown & the mobsters since. I just refused to be used to fund their rescue scheme, so dumping Sterling became a quest.

As ever, DYOR; & be thankful for the internet.

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It's easy to be right once. Show me a commentator who predicted the crash AND the subsequent rescue, made money from the crash, the rescue and has a plausible story about the future based on fundamentals.

Closest I can think of is hugh hendry, but he doesn't quite tick the box of making money during the rescue rally.

Jeremy Grantham has been very impressive so far.

From an article back in May:

Jeremy Grantham was one of the few forecasters to call the crash, He was also one of the few to call the bottom two months ago--publishing "Reinvesting While Terrified" on the exact day the market bottomed. And now, in his quarterly letter, the great Grantham has a surprise for those expecting a return to unremitting gloom: He's (mostly) bullish!

Yes, stocks have once again reached fair value, which means there's no enticing valuation opportunity. But what the bears are missing, Grantham says, is that the entire world is now pumping more stimulus into the system than the entire world has ever seen. And stimulus has a much bigger impact on stocks than it does on economies, Grantham says.

--------

This is what Grantham said in his Q1 newsletter:

"So by analogy to the normal Presidential Cycle effect, driven by stimulus and moral hazard, we are likely to have a remarkable stock rally, far in excess of anything justified by either long-term or short-term economic fundamentals.

My guess is that the S&P 500 is quite likely to run for a while, way beyond fair value (880 on our revised data), to the 1000-1100 level or so before the end of the year.

[...]

In a rally to 1000 or so, the normal commercial bullish bias of the market will of course reassert itself, and everyone and his dog will be claiming it as the next major multi-year bull market. But such an event – a true lasting bull market – is most unlikely.

A large rally here is far more likely to prove a last hurrah … a codicil on the great bullishness we have had since the early 90s or, even in some respects, since the early 80s. The rally, if it occurs, will set us up for a long, drawn-out disappointment not only in the economy, but also in the stock markets of the developed world."

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There is only one way house prices can go now. Up!!

The banks have been saved and money printing is now the order of the day. Retailers have been busy, as have estate agents. I have noticed people look and feel much much happier now it is all over.

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The truth is that we are in unchartered waters - nothing like this has happened before on anything resembing this scale but as usual the bulls on here see matters in extremely simplistic one-dimensional terms.

Even without a credit crunch the emergence of the BRIC countries posed massive questions as to the fate of western nations.

I'm a naturally cautious person, others are naturally hubristic. That's fine, that's their choice but one thing is now for sure - as I'm registered in Singapore for tax I won't be paying anything to help the British Govt to bailout those who come unstuck gambling with the price of the nation's housing stock.

Is anything happening?

With so many regulars having departed the site, we have lost a lot of people who used to post highly revealing news reports from a varierty of sources from around the world. Many have left because much of the attention grabbing shock and awe has fizzled out. No-one, for instance, has posted anything from Nouriel Roubini, Max Keiser or Karl Deninger recently or mentioned things like the Baltic Dry index. There were plenty of other sources being quoted by insiders here too last year.

2008 will never be forgotten; it was exciting and gratifying - watching grins being wiped from the faces of many of the world's biggest swaggering *****ers.

Today, the economy feels like it has been placed under heavy anaethestic by the action the governments have taken. The body is triage, in an induced coma recovering from massive CPR and the pulse is returning to something more regular - but that's not to say the patient is fighting fit. Far from it. Its still very much on life support.

There is so much shock out there at what happened - the crash and the bailouts that nobody really knows where things are going. The catastrophe has not gone away, its just morphed from what we saw last year into something else.

Once the Tories have won the election, we will see their true colours - the cloak of their managed pre-election image will disappear and they'll reassert themselves on the British people the only way they know how - promoting their upperclass buddies to the Lords and cutting massive numbers of jobs in the public sector. Britain is a massively indebted country and that debt has to be tackled one way or another.

The Tories winning the election will really seal complete victory for the plutocrats in Britain. Labour will be haunted by its failings for a decade. The banks should have been allowed to go bust, but then again the banks should never have been allowed to get into such a disasterous state of affairs in the first place.

In terms of its economic impact, some will see the forthcoming jobs cull as chicken feed relative to the hurricane that happened last year. What shouldn't be forgotten is that all the conditions that allowed last year's catastrophe happen in the first place are still in place (don't be fooled by the window dressing we've been seeing regarding liar loans, they'll be back in vogue within a few short years).

Worse still we've now learned that when it happens again - and it most certainly will - the government won't hesitate to bailout the crooks and saddle the tax-payer with that bill too.

Its just that I won't be contributing - and neither should you.

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I think more and more of us know that it is not happening now. In recent weeks I have even detected a change, reading between the lines, in Moneyweek and their thoughts on the housing crash. Talk of buying now in Florida, etc, etc, only makes me think that it is over and that HPs simply will not fall here.

We are all holding out for another bank crisis - they will just do more QE.

Definitely. I must admit before the crash (which I knew was coming) I argued with someone who said that the government "wouldn't let it happen". I countered by saying that a crash would be beyond the powers of the government to stop. I can now see that Labour are so crazy they are prepared to bankrupt the country just to keep the bubble as inflated as possible. Of course, they may still fail, and we end up with a bankrupt country and worthless houses, but really noone can know the answer to that one.

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The truth is that we are in unchartered waters - nothing like this has happened before on anything resembing this scale but as usual the bulls on here see matters in extremely simplistic one-dimensional terms.

Even without a credit crunch the emergence of the BRIC countries posed massive questions as to the fate of western nations.

I'm a naturally cautious person, others are naturally hubristic. That's fine, that's their choice but one thing is now for sure - as I'm registered in Singapore for tax I won't be paying anything to help the British Govt to bailout those who come unstuck gambling with the price of the nation's housing stock.

Is anything happening?

With so many regulars having departed the site, we have lost a lot of people who used to post highly revealing news reports from a varierty of sources from around the world. Many have left because much of the attention grabbing shock and awe has fizzled out. No-one, for instance, has posted anything from Nouriel Roubini, Max Keiser or Karl Deninger recently or mentioned things like the Baltic Dry index. There were plenty of other sources being quoted by insiders here too last year.

2008 will never be forgotten; it was exciting and gratifying - watching grins being wiped from the faces of many of the world's biggest swaggering *****ers.

Today, the economy feels like it has been placed under heavy anaethestic by the action the governments have taken. The body is triage, in an induced coma recovering from massive CPR and the pulse is returning to something more regular - but that's not to say the patient is fighting fit. Far from it. Its still very much on life support.

There is so much shock out there at what happened - the crash and the bailouts that nobody really knows where things are going. The catastrophe has not gone away, its just morphed from what we saw last year into something else.

Once the Tories have won the election, we will see their true colours - the cloak of their managed pre-election image will disappear and they'll reassert themselves on the British people the only way they know how - promoting their upperclass buddies to the Lords and cutting massive numbers of jobs in the public sector. Britain is a massively indebted country and that debt has to be tackled one way or another.

The Tories winning the election will really seal complete victory for the plutocrats in Britain. Labour will be haunted by its failings for a decade. The banks should have been allowed to go bust, but then again the banks should never have been allowed to get into such a disasterous state of affairs in the first place.

In terms of its economic impact, some will see the forthcoming jobs cull as chicken feed relative to the hurricane that happened last year. What shouldn't be forgotten is that all the conditions that allowed last year's catastrophe happen in the first place are still in place (don't be fooled by the window dressing we've been seeing regarding liar loans, they'll be back in vogue within a few short years).

Worse still we've now learned that when it happens again - and it most certainly will - the government won't hesitate to bailout the crooks and saddle the tax-payer with that bill too.

Its just that I won't be contributing - and neither should you.

Excellent post.

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IMPO all these financial video sites where so-called financial experts who I have never heard of talking doom and gloom are no different to all those wacky far-right radio stations that exist in the US.

Just because someone appears on the Internet saying that the World will end tomorrow does not mean that it will. Some no doubt will believe it but the odds are on the Sun rising in the moring.

Well said.

It is a simple case of:

"Could it happen?, of course!. Will it happen? Probably not..."

Plus, the internet is full of nutters.

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This forum has gone down the toilet because people like me post nothing but a load of rubbish and MI# have got at the webmaster and insisted he TOTALLY SH4G UP THE READABILITY OF THE FORUM with this new flipping skin!

Oh and at least on facebook there's a slim chance of getting some..

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There is only one way house prices can go now. Up!!

The banks have been saved and money printing is now the order of the day. Retailers have been busy, as have estate agents. I have noticed people look and feel much much happier now it is all over.

Good one. Now that unemployment is falling again and people aren't worried about losing their jobs ... everything in the garden is rosy.

A friend's wife has been looking for a job for a year now - office job - PA/ Admin / Secretarial - usual boring nonsense - she uses various web sites that show you how many people are applying for each job. She's a lot more optimistic now. Anything with a half decent salary only has between 100 and 200 applicants. It was 400 at the peak of the recession.

It's all good news.

The only niggling doubts are:

What happens when tax rises to start paying down government debt?

What happens when interest rates rise?

What happens when an axe is taken to public sector employment?

Edited by Let's get it right
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I think the wacky redesign of this site was a signal for many disillusioned to depart HPC.

I think more and more of us know that it is not happening now. In recent weeks I have even detected a change, reading between the lines, in Moneyweek and their thoughts on the housing crash. Talk of buying now in Florida, etc, etc, only makes me think that it is over and that HPs simply will not fall here.

We are all holding out for another bank crisis - they will just do more QE.

We are all holding out for big public sector cuts in 2010 - may well not happen.

Why are we hear here?

Moneyweek September 2009 Four Reasons Why UK House Prices Will Keep Falling

.....there's been a big brouhaha about the latest HSBC 1.99% home loan offer, don't expect many other lenders to follow suit. A lot of lending power has now left the market for good. Almost £300bn of UK mortgage debt was securitised, i.e. packaged up and sold off from bank balance sheets onto the bond markets, between 2005 and 2007.

"That represents more than 90% of the growth in mortgage debt over that period", says CreditSights. And "the world isn't exactly clamouring for British securitised mortgages anymore, and won't be for a long time", says Matthew Lynn on Bloomberg. "With less money coming into the market, there won't be the same kind of demand for houses".

Yet a Rightmove survey at the end of August gave the "encouraging" signal that 78% of respondents reckoned UK house prices won't fall any further this year. And also that "the UK property industry is now seeing a virtuous circle of confidence building upon confidence"Why's this another worry? Well, as Fidelity's Anthony Bolton explained in the weekend's FT about the stock market, "if everyone is positioned for the market to rise, it means these bullish expectations are already discounted" – i.e. factored into the price. As a result, "the market often moves to make the majority wrong and does the unexpected… so at turning points especially, the correct is the minority view".

And while there are plenty of differences between shares and houses, the principles of crowd behaviour are the same for every asset class. When almost everyone is bullish, get ready for a price fall. The near-8.5% bounce in property prices within the last six months (using Nationwide's figures at least) now looks ripe for a reversal.

.

Moneyweek September 2009

A Double Dip Recession is coming : Here are 3 reasons why

Moneyweek September 2009

The Housing Market Hasn't Hit Bottom Yet

I honestly cannot see why so many on HPC are losing hope, started at thread at the weekend Where Will the Funding Come From for a Continuation of this Bubble

I can see that sentiment is VERY strong and seemingly unstoppable currently but LOGIC tells me that NOTHING has changed since the start of the year in relation to lending / affordability etc and things can change again VERY quickly

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