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porca misèria

Too Good To Be True?

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That's the IMF's conclusion in its latest World Economic Outlook, out yesterday. It says the typical housing boom lasts six years and sees house prices in real terms go up by about 50%. Downturns last five years, during which time house prices in real terms fall about 24%.

What´s typical about what has happened? Multiply by two at least for this time around.

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What´s typical about what has happened? Multiply by two at least for this time around.

indeed - capital economics have done just that

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One way or another - whether through higher lifetime taxes or unemployment at a crucial time in the career - young people are going to be paying for this crisis for a long time to come. It would be no bad thing if they could at least come out of it able to afford a home.

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on her volumes point - she says about 4% turnover now, it was 7-8%, so being fair, house sales volumes have plummeted. I'd agree. But she's talking about pre-crash - not adjusted trends. If you take out the hundreds of thousands of flats and shoeboxes (probably pushing a million or so) chucked up in the last 8 years or so, which have gone to BTL people, then is turnover really down - the developers have shut up shop for a lot of 2008/2009 - their volumes of new sales are down, so logically numbers of sales of houses have also dropped with it.

This must have had a major effect on sales volumes....

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The readers don't seem to like it very much. Apparently she's ignoring the basic problems of supply and demand.

:lol:

I can't login to BBC, but perhaps someone shd ask those people what rents have done over the last 10 years, and whether that backs up their theories.

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on her volumes point - she says about 4% turnover now, it was 7-8%, so being fair, house sales volumes have plummeted. I'd agree. But she's talking about pre-crash - not adjusted trends.

I think that's uncontroversial. Bubble-volumes were indeed inflated, and have fallen to something more normal. What we've seen over the summer season is a supply and demand situation, where the supply was distorted by zero-interest-rates.

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