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Belfast Boy

Nationwide Up 9.7% In 3 Months.

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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q3_2009.pdf

Ok I have time now. Though I cannot use the full editor to change the title.

Nationwide Q2 2009 average price £135,862.

Nationwide Q3 2009 average price £147,204.

So, average house prices have risen £11,342 or 8.3%.

The third quarter saw a rise in house prices in Northern Ireland for the first time in two years. Prices rose by 9.7%, the highest of any UK region, and a substantial improvement from the 4.3% quarter-on-quarter fall seen in the second quarter. However, prices are still down 8.0% on Q3 2008, and have fallen 35% from their peak in Q3 2007. The softening in the year-on-year rate of decline this quarter might reflect that affordability has improved considerably given the sharp price falls experienced over the last two years. The ratio of house prices to earnings is now broadly in line with that for the UK as a whole, having been well above the UK average for most of the last two years.

The Northern Ireland (West) sub-region saw the largest annual fall in house price this quarter and has also been the worst performing area over the last two years. Elevated levels of unemployment in parts of the area are likely to have had a negative impact on prices.

Is this good or bad news?

Personally is see this as good news for the house price crash.

Question: why is this good news for the house price crash?

Edited by Belfast Boy

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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q3_2009.pdf

I don't have time to do the real figures. Will edit it later.

Is this good or bad news?

Personally is see this as good news for the house price crash.

Question: why is this good news for the house price crash?

Quickly 4 things:

1. News like this will encourage more properties onto the property market for sale and our dear friends supply and demand will be back in play

2. There may be a reduction in the number of properties for rent on the back of this news and once again supply and demand will raise its head

3. Given that transaction volumes are low and that all apartments that are completing now in Belfast are forcing completion to contracted 2006/07 levels is this artificially skewing the data?

4. When Quantitative Easing stops, interest rates go up and the 175k stamp duty threshold is cut back to the 125k limit (possibly during 2010) what might the impact be?

Edited by paul65

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Quickly 4 things:

1. News like this will encourage more properties onto the property market for sale and our dear friends supply and demand will be back in play

2. There may be a reduction in the number of properties for rent on the back of this news and once again supply and demand will raise its head

3. Given that transaction volumes are low and that all apartments that are completing now in Belfast are forcing completion to contracted 2006/07 levels is this artificially skewing the data?

4. When Quantitative Easing stops, interest rates go up and the 175k stamp duty threshold is cut back to the 125k limit (possibly during 2010) what might the impact be?

These are all really valid points.

I've never really thought of myself as a conspiracy theory crackpot but I flat out just don't believe these figures. I keep regular tabs on Propertynews and properties are only shifting after significant price reductions - how can this translate into a 9.7% increase?? Is there some sort of Voodoo economics going on here?

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These are all really valid points.

I've never really thought of myself as a conspiracy theory crackpot but I flat out just don't believe these figures. I keep regular tabs on Propertynews and properties are only shifting after significant price reductions - how can this translate into a 9.7% increase?? Is there some sort of Voodoo economics going on here?

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Does not compute!

Exactly. Seriously though - isn't there a danger of a yawning credibility gap opening up between statistics such as these and the experiences of 'real people in the real world' (to use a phrase I detest!)

People cant believe this - can they? :blink:

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i know we are deemed on here to love bad stories and disregard positive news on house prices but

treesdontgrowtothesky doesnt really back this up , asking prices are continuing to fall.

however expect to see numerous bel tel / EAs ramping articles

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i know we are deemed on here to love bad stories and disregard positive news on house prices but

treesdontgrowtothesky doesnt really back this up , asking prices are continuing to fall.

however expect to see numerous bel tel / EAs ramping articles

A number of points re your posting and earlier ones on this subject:

1. Yes asking prices are continuing to fall, but how many drops last week are still above what the nationwide say is the average price of £147k. The facts that asking prices are dropping does not automatically equate to drops in average sale prices

2. Would it not be more accurate to take the weekly sales agreed reports on TDGTTS and find the average sale price (Remember to adjust down by C. 10%, as only the asking price is shown here, not the actual sale price).

3. Does it say on the Nationwide report where they get there figures from anyway?

4. If this is all a big conspircacy, they've waited a bloody long time to pull their fingers out!

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I don't think it's a conspiracy just the results of a bounce - it was bound to happen people can't put their lives on hold forever.

Developers like Belfast VI are seeing buyers return to the market. There are loads of houses out there now at prices which can be afforded on 2 salaries. The crunch will come if one of the two loses their job or interest rates start to go back up and taxes increase. If you are using most of your salary to pay for a house then you cannot spend in the economy and the recession will continue.

However the house types I am interested in which at peak were 2 or 3 times DCV are now coming down in TDGTTS to 1.5 times DCV. I can afford to wait until they reach DCV. I am still quietly confident that the market will start to slide this autumn. If these Nationwide figures persuade more people to put their house on the market then I will be happy.

again valid argument there Doc...with interest rates going up, stamp duty going to "normal" again sometime soon and with a new government (maybe) next year, with increasing interest rates to pay off debt...I can't see a continued rise in prices.....bit of a small bounce for me personally imo.

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This is huge and pretty disappointing for ftbs like myself. I thought the banks were still demanding large deposits and that volumes were low. Looks like Gordon did manage to get the banks lending again.

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I don't think it's a conspiracy just the results of a bounce - it was bound to happen people can't put their lives on hold forever.

Developers like Belfast VI are seeing buyers return to the market. There are loads of houses out there now at prices which can be afforded on 2 salaries. The crunch will come if one of the two loses their job or interest rates start to go back up and taxes increase. If you are using most of your salary to pay for a house then you cannot spend in the economy and the recession will continue.

However the house types I am interested in which at peak were 2 or 3 times DCV are now coming down in TDGTTS to 1.5 times DCV. I can afford to wait until they reach DCV. I am still quietly confident that the market will start to slide this autumn. If these Nationwide figures persuade more people to put their house on the market then I will be happy.

You will see from earlier posts on this that I was dreading a report like this. I was hoping for flat of even a -2%. This is a disaster.

I don't believe the nonsense about a conspiracy its more a factor of low volume and more people buying further up the ladder. I don't think real prices have risen they have just stopped falling and have stopped falling from about Feb. I uses to analysis the TDGTTS figures but give up because of the amount of them that were going back for sale and the fact they were asking prices rather that agreed prices. It was also quire time consuming. But their averages were around £180k.

Why do I say this a disaster - because it is too high and is bound to fall a similar amount the next time. Whilst this will bring it back to a similar price it will start a panic about a second crash. The real prices have stead the same.

Job losses or even the fear of job losses is certainly a serious matter. And I agree it is now the single biggest factor. I know we disagree on the affordability issue. However if unemployment was to rise by 4% from its low base that means 96% of the working population will still be in a job. How many more are affected by increased job insecurity - you could say all the rest. So to me that is now the single biggest factor and job losses will continue on by the recovery in the economy, when that comes.

That withstanding, the question for me is will volumes increase on the back of the latest good/bad house price news? I think it will. I think it will also allow the lenders to free up more mortgages. Will prices rise - normality. Will the Nationwide be higher next time - I don't think so..

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Quickly 4 things:

1. News like this will encourage more properties onto the property market for sale and our dear friends supply and demand will be back in play

I agree, however the reported increase in prices could also bring buyers into the market who have been waiting for further drops.

I still don't think Nationwide provide a lot of mortgages in NI, but as I have been told on here over and over again they have been spot on in the past, why would they not be now. Did someone not say more transaction will drag the average price down.

If the quarterly figures show an increase with the back drop of todays economic conditions, what will happen as confidence returns and the media start the "don't miss the boat" reporting.

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That withstanding, the question for me is will volumes increase on the back of the latest good/bad house price news? I think it will. I think it will also allow the lenders to free up more mortgages. Will prices rise - normality. Will the Nationwide be higher next time - I don't think so..

+1

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BVI, if unemployment rises by 4%, it does not mean that 96% of the working population are still working. The 4% refers to the population as a whole.

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I broke out Excel to work out Q2 to Q3 changes for sub regions:

City of Belfast

190,647 -> 198,583 == 4.16%

Northern Ireland (North East)

155,584 -> 159,938 == 2.80%

Northern Ireland (South East)

170,267 -> 176,913 == 3.90%

Northern Ireland (West)

126,559 -> 124,330 == -1.76%

Plus I assume these are seasonally adjusted figures as well. Is Q3 considered the start of autumn and so in need of an upward push in comparison to spring-time Q2?

Edited to say: I just remembered that The Bakery apartments might be in these figures?

Edited by monorailkitty

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BVI, if unemployment rises by 4%, it does not mean that 96% of the working population are still working. The 4% refers to the population as a whole.

If I'm wrong I stand corrected but I assumed it excluded pensiones and minors ie those working and those 'available' for work. I know it probably excludes all those on DLA etc.

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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q3_2009.pdf

I don't have time to do the real figures. Will edit it later.

Is this good or bad news?

Personally is see this as good news for the house price crash.

Question: why is this good news for the house price crash?

The world is a funny place.

House prices go up

BB says this is good

I, a VI say it is bad.

You would have to laugh until you figure out we are actually both agreeing with other.

However, BB if the report had of shown the prices were actually falling would you have said that was bad?

Edited by BelfastVI

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wow - just checked the figs, NI H.P.s nothing if not volatile

i thought it would be flat but there you go, if this is what QE does to an economy, it begs the question what happens when and if QE is withdrawn, or have Merv, Gordo and the gang sacrificed sterling to save house prices?

edit - changed wording

Edited by p.p.

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You will see from earlier posts on this that I was dreading a report like this. I was hoping for flat of even a -2%. This is a disaster.

I don't believe the nonsense about a conspiracy its more a factor of low volume and more people buying further up the ladder. I don't think real prices have risen they have just stopped falling and have stopped falling from about Feb. I uses to analysis the TDGTTS figures but give up because of the amount of them that were going back for sale and the fact they were asking prices rather that agreed prices. It was also quire time consuming. But their averages were around £180k.

Why do I say this a disaster - because it is too high and is bound to fall a similar amount the next time. Whilst this will bring it back to a similar price it will start a panic about a second crash. The real prices have stead the same.

Job losses or even the fear of job losses is certainly a serious matter. And I agree it is now the single biggest factor. I know we disagree on the affordability issue. However if unemployment was to rise by 4% from its low base that means 96% of the working population will still be in a job. How many more are affected by increased job insecurity - you could say all the rest. So to me that is now the single biggest factor and job losses will continue on by the recovery in the economy, when that comes.

That withstanding, the question for me is will volumes increase on the back of the latest good/bad house price news? I think it will. I think it will also allow the lenders to free up more mortgages. Will prices rise - normality. Will the Nationwide be higher next time - I don't think so..

I think you've described there exactly why a bull trap happens - low volumes, cash-rich buyers thinking they see value - and why the crash will proceed. This is why I agree with BB that this is good for the crash in a way - the 'green shoots' will have been shown to be premature (in the middle of the worst recession in our lifetimes, remember) and once the second downleg starts people will have to accept the inevitable and the return to real sustainability in the market will be hastened.

My first reaction to this today was to laugh at how ridiculous it was - like the FTSE having the best quarter in its history in the middle of what could turn out to be a depression - and wonder at how anyone could believe this it is sustainable, yet I can already hear the media spin. I now feel faintly embarrassed as to how this looks to the rest of the UK, ROI and Europe - even the most bullish must be thinking what prize mugs we are.

Edited by shipbuilder

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8.3% rise - that is one sudden and big reversal of the house price trend. House prices didn't bottom they bounced or even spiked up.

Just to expand upon what some here have already said...

I think what has caused this spike is - people who bought houses and apartments off-plan in 2007 are now having to complete at peak prices.

There are other factors of course. Government intervention and media spin being the other main factors.

On another note: I have just checked the price of all the houses I am watching and none of them have gone up at all. They are still sitting at the same high price and nobody is buying them.

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