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So What's The Future For House Prices Then?


judas

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HOLA441
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Daddy Bear has had all his fingers removed by the Lizard Kings for attempting to publicize their fiendish plans. He thus can no longer type, but is reduced to cut and pasting pictures using his chin to drag a mouse around and his nose to right click.

Make the most of it, as the scaly overlords are taking his nose off tomorrow.

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<!--quoteo(post=2173107:date=Sep 30 2009, 08:32 PM:name=judas)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (judas @ Sep 30 2009, 08:32 PM) <a href="index.php?act=findpost&pid=2173107"><{POST_SNAPBACK}></a></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->We thought the world would change forever.

A global financial crisis to define a generation.

Bookies taking bets of the first city to riot.

HPC members talking seriously (some of them yes) about stocking up on food.

Deflation, hyperinflation, lives ruined forever.

And house prices to fall by at least 50% and up to 90%.

Here we are 15% peak to present in over a year ??!!! A bit dissapointing no? Certainly unexpected.

So what happens now. How much further will real house prices fall. I feel that even the HPC official prediction of 40 - 50% may be silly.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

We are in the stand-off phase where there are hardly any transactions. This is quite normal at the beginning of the beginning of a house price crash. It is going to be a few years yet before we hit bottom.

Gosh this new format is pretty awful isn't it?

Re "stand-off phase". I was thinking about this this morning because every day I look at the news the news seems to be growing ever more positive (depending on which way you look at this ) with regards house prices and I get a sense that we haven't seen the end of positive HPI. I also sense that the only reason things are not BOOMING is because the lenders are now cautious, the sentiment seems to be the same as ever with regards property prices going up and up and up.

BUT, I also know that with the constraints on lending and high LTV's (although loan to incomes seem to be nowhere near historic norms), even the few properties that are on the market are struggling to sell because very few can afford to buy them .

So on the one hand we appear to have a market that is BOOMING with increased approvals , but on the other hand we have very limited lending with Rightmove themselves saying :

Future price and transaction growth is now controlled by the bottleneck of mortgage availability. This is unlikely to change for years to come, with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasting that mortgage application levels will recover slowly and remain well below the levels seen in

the early part of this decade as far ahead as 2013. Even in 2013 the CEBR state that numbers will still be 24% below 2006 levels. This may well reflect a paradigm shift in access to mortgage lending. While HSBC is the only major lender to have taken a more proactive stance and increased its market share, its reported average loan-to-value of circa 50% on new mortgage lending is a perfect illustration of the new era of both caution and cherry picking.

Shipside adds: “Lenders are looking to remove as much risk as possible from their mortgage book. While the government’s left-hand is waving them on to lend to more home movers and small businesses, the right-hand is effectively flagging them down again by urging lenders to re-build balance sheets and improve capital adequacy”.

There are lots of positives but too few buyers can put down the 40% deposits that are needed in order to secure the best mortgage deals. Finance greases the wheels of the property market, and it is anybody’s guess when we might see the necessary level of competitive funding return. Frustrated homehunters should note the expected ten year timetable to wind up Lehman Brothers, giving a clear indication of the time required to rebuild the banking system.”

I KNOW WE CAN'T HAVE BOTH - a market that is recoverying and returning to NORMAL (that is back to 2007) , AND a market with severe restrictions and very few FTB's with loan to incomes way higher than historic norms.

Blanchflower simply saying what others are saying:

'How much further will house prices fall? The best guide is the ratio between average earnings and average house prices. This is a measure of affordability. Between 1983 and 2001, before house prices started to climb, the ratio averaged 3.62. By July 2007 the ratio had reached 5.84; it has subsequently fallen back to 4.33.

'To get back to the long-run average of 3.62 from 5.84 implies a drop of 38%. So far we are down 26%, so it looks like there is more to go. The possibility is that house price falls will be even greater than that if the ratio falls below its long-run trend before recovering, as it did in the early 1990s.

House prices probably have a good way to drop yet. Lots of people may tell you otherwise − estate agents, mortgage brokers and bankers − because they have something to gain. My advice is just to look at the data.'

The FT recently called this an "irrational rally" ....

House price fall tipped after end of 'irrational' rally

By Daniel Thomas, Property Correspondent

Published: September 11 2009 03:00 | Last updated: September 11 2009 03:00

House prices are forecast to suffer a significant fall over the next 18 months as an "irrational" rally ends, according to a report today from a leading property consultancy.

Housing analysts are increasingly predicting the likelihood of a W-shaped cycle where the recent house price bounce tails off and falls back in 2010 before recovering again in 2012.

There is the view that :

"if everyone is positioned for the market to rise, it means these bullish expectations are already discounted" – i.e. factored into the price. As a result, "the market often moves to make the majority wrong and does the unexpected… so at turning points especially, the correct is the minority view".

And while there are plenty of differences between shares and houses, the principles of crowd behaviour are the same for every asset class. When almost everyone is bullish, get ready for a price fall. The near-8.5% bounce in property prices within the last six months (using Nationwide's figures at least) now looks ripe for a reversal

.

What I can't understand however is HOW people are managing to pay 2007 values on property that is being correctly valued (or so we are told) by surveyors , meaning at least 20% below peak ? What I can't understand is how all these people can't afford to move or sell because of negative equity, if property hasn't fallen at all!

It was only a few months ago that we were hearing via Hometrack / RM / Savills etc that most offers were 25% - 30% off peak and the market appeared to have found a new floor at these levels, but now we seem to be saying that not only are "offers" seen as an insult but that property is going up!

Dr Bubb a while back seemed to be saying that a "swing" "rug pull" was on its way and:

Many HPCers are "stuck in the crowd" and influenced heavily by the resurgent mania around them.

(Maybe it is easier for me to be detached from it, living here in Hong Kong - we have our own manias here.)

This will die. And the higher the sentiment swings, the bigger the disappointment and disillusion when it

(eventually) swings back the other way.

When prices are speeding downwards in a few months time, after the rug pull, I will remind people that

the very painful next stage of the crash, would not have been fully possible without the huge surge in false

hopes that we are seeing now.

But even Dr B seems "bullish" on house prices these days .......

Normally I only trawl through 70 + houses that I keep an eye on rather than the whole of Rightmove, this week I trawled through Rightmove for Dorset £170000 - £250000 and was surprised to see SO MANY houses that have been on for SO LONG still sat there. However, we all know, that for the one house that is lucky to get a cash buyer willing to pay 2007 value there are dozens of properties that will not find a cash buyer , what I would REALLY like to know is what happens then?

Are lenders happy to lend at 2007 values as long as the buyer takes the risk upon themselves against 40% falls by putting up a 40% deposit ? But how many people have 40% deposits ? So what will keep this market where it is ? And as the OP said, "what next"? Are we at the end of an "irrational rally" or will sentiment just keep pushing this one back up as it is currently doing , to levels where EA's are starting to add £30000 + to 2007 values ?

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Guest The Relaxation Suite

We thought the world would change forever.

A global financial crisis to define a generation.

Bookies taking bets of the first city to riot.

HPC members talking seriously (some of them yes) about stocking up on food.

Deflation, hyperinflation, lives ruined forever.

And house prices to fall by at least 50% and up to 90%.

Here we are 15% peak to present in over a year ??!!! A bit dissapointing no? Certainly unexpected.

So what happens now. How much further will real house prices fall. I feel that even the HPC official prediction of 40 - 50% may be silly.

It's your birthday. You're in your kitchen blowing up one of those long balloons that fly all over the room and howl when you release them. OK. You blow and blow and blow. The balloon gets bigger. It starts to get very tight and shiny and thin. It's now almost solid and is about to pop. But you want the balloon to be the biggest at the party so you keep on blowing. Then, you run out of air and as you gasp one more time you let go of the balloon.

Quesiton. What does the balloon do?

Key: You are the Fed, the balloon is the price of the average house.

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HOLA445

Lets remind ourselfs the 90`s. I bought in 89 and couldnt sell for 9 years. When I sold it in 1998 the price was only slightly above the purchase price. I had a nice and sound Edwardian house. What chances of selling today have the owners of crappy flats, ex rental prop and properties in poor conition? NONE. Beware cos you may end up in your property for another 10 years ! No chance of selling and no chance of any price rises untill unemployment falls but by then interest rates will be 5% haha so that will stop any hp rises. I saw 5 houses recently and 4 of them were empty and ex rental. How long the owners can keep paying all the fees? Something will give in soon + add 200 000 repo hiting the market soon after election.

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HOLA446

We thought the world would change forever.

A global financial crisis to define a generation.

Bookies taking bets of the first city to riot.

HPC members talking seriously (some of them yes) about stocking up on food.

Deflation, hyperinflation, lives ruined forever.

And house prices to fall by at least 50% and up to 90%.

Here we are 15% peak to present in over a year ??!!! A bit dissapointing no? Certainly unexpected.

So what happens now. How much further will real house prices fall. I feel that even the HPC official prediction of 40 - 50% may be silly.

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HOLA447

No one knows at what will happen when economics is complete guesswork.

How this will all end is anyone's guess but it appears that we are seeing a direct challenge to Von Mises premise.

Ludwig von Mises describes the endgame brought on by reckless expansion of credit: "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

I would say Von Mises is still absolutely correct. With the contraction of broad money, we are seeing a "voluntary abandonment of further credit" just as has happened in Japan.

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HOLA448

It has become the norm in the UK for people to equate personal wealth with the value of ones house.

This is a fact and shows what a basicially thick population we have.

High house prices mean equity and therefore the opportunity to borrow against it.

Think about it-F**k all Industry, thick population with no skills other than " Computer Skills",what they used to call" New Work"-----C****s.

All the connections to the Housing Market-from Carpets to Solicitors and beyond. No wonder the b******s are hung upon it! `Its all we have f*****g got. It keeps the rich rich and the poor happy! Its want everyone in the ruling classes wants, and that includes politicians.

So----------my feeling is that HP,s will stagnate,please don,t listen to the popular media, and in W.London, Bath and Poole,prices might rise,and in Newport,Belfast and Burnley they will fall. 4-5 years and the whole thing starts again.

Unless we become more European.Do you know Denmark has the cheapest house in the modern world, very little HP inflation, and virtually no one but the Danes can buy one. Offer low and hope for the best.

Take up a hobby. Chill.F**k it !

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HOLA449

We thought the world would change forever.

A global financial crisis to define a generation.

Bookies taking bets of the first city to riot.

HPC members talking seriously (some of them yes) about stocking up on food.

Deflation, hyperinflation, lives ruined forever.

And house prices to fall by at least 50% and up to 90%.

Here we are 15% peak to present in over a year ??!!! A bit dissapointing no? Certainly unexpected.

So what happens now. How much further will real house prices fall. I feel that even the HPC official prediction of 40 - 50% may be silly.

the government 'didnt let it happen'

as people used to say.

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HOLA4410

It has become the norm in the UK for people to equate personal wealth with the value of ones house.

This is a fact and shows what a basicially thick population we have.

High house prices mean equity and therefore the opportunity to borrow against it.

Think about it-F**k all Industry, thick population with no skills other than " Computer Skills",what they used to call" New Work"-----C****s.

All the connections to the Housing Market-from Carpets to Solicitors and beyond. No wonder the b******s are hung upon it! `Its all we have f*****g got. It keeps the rich rich and the poor happy! Its want everyone in the ruling classes wants, and that includes politicians.

So----------my feeling is that HP,s will stagnate,please don,t listen to the popular media, and in W.London, Bath and Poole,prices might rise,and in Newport,Belfast and Burnley they will fall. 4-5 years and the whole thing starts again.

Unless we become more European.Do you know Denmark has the cheapest house in the modern world, very little HP inflation, and virtually no one but the Danes can buy one. Offer low and hope for the best.

Take up a hobby. Chill.F**k it !

This is exactly why you shouldn't listen to people who post on forums because they have very little knowledge of what they're talking about.

Danish house prices are not the cheapest in the modern world by any stretch of the imagination. In fact they are comparable to the UK and have also seen a similar boom and bust.

Sweden on the other hand does have cheap housing but that is a different country with a different language and a different monarchy.

This is my first and last post on this site. It really is inhabited by a bunch on nutters who clearly have nothing better to do than salivate over the possibility of financial armageddon.

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HOLA4411

the government 'didnt let it happen'

as people used to say.

Edited for you:

'The government have kicked the can down the road'

A bit like using the credit card to pay the mortgage, what happens when you hit the credit limit? It'll all end in tears.

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HOLA4412

Lets remind ourselfs the 90`s. I bought in 89 and couldnt sell for 9 years. When I sold it in 1998 the price was only slightly above the purchase price. I had a nice and sound Edwardian house. What chances of selling today have the owners of crappy flats, ex rental prop and properties in poor conition? NONE. Beware cos you may end up in your property for another 10 years ! No chance of selling and no chance of any price rises untill unemployment falls but by then interest rates will be 5% haha so that will stop any hp rises. I saw 5 houses recently and 4 of them were empty and ex rental. How long the owners can keep paying all the fees? Something will give in soon + add 200 000 repo hiting the market soon after election.

This seems like the most likely outcome for me <_<

Raging inflation will be contained through interest rate rises

The government and the BoE have already shown they will moves heaven and earth to avoid deflation

There will be a few people who bought executive BTL "city centre executive high rise apartments" who will never get their money back of course :lol:

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HOLA4413
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HOLA4414

Prices may have stabilized over the past 6 months, but sales volume has continued to drop (comparison with same month in 2008. A declining number of people are willing/able to buy at the current inflated price, unless that changes prices will have to strat dropping

ResSales.JPG

post-11344-12543938287273_thumb.jpg

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HOLA4415
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HOLA4416

Answer? Nobody knows.

I must admit I am beginning to wonder where all this is heading. So far those in power have crushed the crash, so to speak. And to boot, they've punished savers in favour of the debt ridden. The majority want house prices protected, and so it is.

Often we've seen posts declaring the next leg down, citing this and that as the catalyst. But it's come to nothing. The truth is houses are still ridiculously overpriced, and they ain't budging. It's as if everyone has learnt from history this time, and taken steps to smother a crash no matter what the long term cost. It's a pity they didn't learn from history, and keep house prices under control in the first place.

Personally I think there is perhaps one glimmer of hope left. Labour have held the dam in place with a view to reaching the next election. Their claim will be "we steered the UK out of recession and crash". But once the election has passed that dam may finally break.

I'm not convinced anything spectacular will happen though. It been slow motion all the way. Who knows, maybe we're heading the Japan route. But regardless, it's been disappointing so far. Anyone with an escape route to better climes should probably take it IMO.

Housing is becoming a subject I prefer not to discuss. Passion has been replaced by weariness. We all have lives to live, and that can't be put on hold waiting for "the bargain buy".

Just my 2 cents.

excellent post. I concur with this and what the OP has to say.

Basically we've learned that there is NO problem too big or complicated that govt. intervention cannot fix or atleast put a floor under. That's the theory, in practice, govts. are constrained by political pressure which often lead them to create double dip scenarios. But when you have a 'global' consensus to tackling a crisis such as this you see the full capabilities of what they can do.

don't look at they say, look at what they do. For me, the risk of a double dip from govt. actions is minimal to non-existent, the japan scenario is more likely because we may be about to enter a period far different to the early noughties. Now, the minimal wage inflation experienced by the many, will become none existent for some, and will provoke some reaction in behaviour from the populace. This will play out over years, but it has already begun with housing. I foresee a period of historically low transaction volumes for some time to come. This current period of lack of supply will become normal, interest rates won't deviate much, this has been an opportunity for some to save and pay down debts and for others to speculate......but i can't enisage a scenario where's there's much scope for the skyrocketing prices of the early noughties. Not when there will be tough choices ahead.

Just don't expect the tough choices to create hpc part deux. at this point stagnation would be good.

Edited by spivtastic
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HOLA4417

Lets remind ourselfs the 90`s. I bought in 89 and couldnt sell for 9 years. When I sold it in 1998 the price was only slightly above the purchase price. I had a nice and sound Edwardian house. What chances of selling today have the owners of crappy flats, ex rental prop and properties in poor conition? NONE. Beware cos you may end up in your property for another 10 years ! No chance of selling and no chance of any price rises untill unemployment falls but by then interest rates will be 5% haha so that will stop any hp rises. I saw 5 houses recently and 4 of them were empty and ex rental. How long the owners can keep paying all the fees? Something will give in soon + add 200 000 repo hiting the market soon after election.

fair point. the only thing i would say is that govt. and local councils really have created a situation where there is and will continue to be a shortage of good housing in the right locations. they could quite easily redevelop small tracts of disused land in these areas to, in one fell swoop, address the supply crunch, but they are more interested in selling out to build 'em small and shoddy, price them high developers. That's before we even get started on the issue of planning permission.

In other words, the crap stuff will continue to struggle to meet 2007 expectations, the good stuff could well exceed expectations becuase there's just not enough of it about. And that's down to govt. and councils. almost every new development i've seen in my area has been priced at what i would describe 'inflated'. That govt. have left the supply of new homes in the hands of these speculators is a disgrace.

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HOLA4418
Guest The Relaxation Suite

Lets remind ourselfs the 90`s. I bought in 89 and couldnt sell for 9 years. When I sold it in 1998 the price was only slightly above the purchase price. I had a nice and sound Edwardian house. What chances of selling today have the owners of crappy flats, ex rental prop and properties in poor conition? NONE. Beware cos you may end up in your property for another 10 years ! No chance of selling and no chance of any price rises untill unemployment falls but by then interest rates will be 5% haha so that will stop any hp rises. I saw 5 houses recently and 4 of them were empty and ex rental. How long the owners can keep paying all the fees? Something will give in soon + add 200 000 repo hiting the market soon after election.

B+

Houses have a long way to fall before the stagnation you describe happens. ;)

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fair point. the only thing i would say is that govt. and local councils really have created a situation where there is and will continue to be a shortage of good housing in the right locations. they could quite easily redevelop small tracts of disused land in these areas to, in one fell swoop, address the supply crunch, but they are more interested in selling out to build 'em small and shoddy, price them high developers. That's before we even get started on the issue of planning permission.

In other words, the crap stuff will continue to struggle to meet 2007 expectations, the good stuff could well exceed expectations becuase there's just not enough of it about. And that's down to govt. and councils. almost every new development i've seen in my area has been priced at what i would describe 'inflated'. That govt. have left the supply of new homes in the hands of these speculators is a disgrace.

+1

I've had the good fortune of living in a land far, far way (ok, ok, 30 miles from Dover...) where they have this strange system: individuals buy a plot of land and build a house on it.

The UK seems blind to this idea; building land can only be acquired by 'developers' - i.e. intermediaries and speculators - who then sell it on to the people who actually need it.

I find it all very strange :unsure:

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HOLA4420

So what happens now. How much further will real house prices fall. I feel that even the HPC official prediction of 40 - 50% may be silly.

Well there are plenty of people around (;)!) who always suspected we wouldn't see anything massively dramatic. It was ironic that a site that so actively condemned pro price ramping spin couldn't curtail it's own house price dumping spin! Things will bumble up and down over the next few years I'm sure making it increasingly difficult to "guess" the optimum time to buy (as if anyone could do this with certainty anyway...! - although I'm sure some will claim that they did!).

This makes the "buy a house because you can afford it and want it" brigade look increasingly the most sensible. I'm glad I didn't put my life on hold when I first found this site back in 2003. But it's the people who are left without a choice that I feel sorry for.

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HOLA4421

Suppose it all boils down to whether the government that has the most fiscally unsustainable policies since we have been at war can sustain the housing bubble.

The whole question revolves around QE and as we have seen with the Telegraph article today the more they use it as a prop the more long term damage it will do.

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HOLA4422

Well there are plenty of people around (;)!) who always suspected we wouldn't see anything massively dramatic. It was ironic that a site that so actively condemned pro price ramping spin couldn't curtail it's own house price dumping spin! Things will bumble up and down over the next few years I'm sure making it increasingly difficult to "guess" the optimum time to buy (as if anyone could do this with certainty anyway...! - although I'm sure some will claim that they did!).

This makes the "buy a house because you can afford it and want it" brigade look increasingly the most sensible. I'm glad I didn't put my life on hold when I first found this site back in 2003. But it's the people who are left without a choice that I feel sorry for.

"Buy a house because you can afford it and want it " AND you do not mind seeing it possibly losing 40 - 50% of its value over the next few years (depending on inflation etc). I do think this is an important element of any decision to buy a property in todays market , and I KNOW that property is about homes and not invesment, but people increasingly seem to think this way "I will buy this and in 3 years it will be worth such and such". The property prog a few months ago on BBC 2 (?) where they looked at various aspects of the market and followed 2 young FTB's, just left me speechless, that two young people could have been involved in a programme about a property crash yet despite ALL the warnings were still so caught up in the previous hype, I remeber a poignant moment when Merryn Somerset Webb asked them "where they saw themselves in 2 years?" And it turned out that BOTH despite all the warnings had bought believing they would sell in 2 years, one wanted to travel and the other to buy somewhere to have a family. I DO think therefore it is important if you are buying in todays market to realise that your property might not be worth what you are paying for it today (especially of that TODAYS value is based on what the seller might have got for it in 2007), for a long long time to come. If LOSS really doesn't bother you you want that property you love that property and you don't care what it has cost you, then GREAT , but I don't honestly believe many do really feel like this, most who are buying today (unless they are very very well off), just HOPE that somehow or other the market can correct without prices having to fall to a level where people can afford to buy!

Edited by Sybil13
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HOLA4423

What is the future for anything with a price on it, it will fall, the whole economy has been supported by debt...what we are seeing is a major re-set. In the future £1 will equal one unit of real work, only real work can create real growth. ;)

Agreed but in a global economy the 'real' work whatever that might be can be done somewhere else. We were probably the first post industrial nation and hence can lead the way in a jobless recovery. No amount of real work is any good without sales people, lawyers to protect it and logistics to move it.

Don't hold your breath for the return of 'real' work it will be done by robots instead grasp the opportunity that your language and location bestows upon you.

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HOLA4424

We thought the world would change forever.

A global financial crisis to define a generation.

Bookies taking bets of the first city to riot.

HPC members talking seriously (some of them yes) about stocking up on food.

Deflation, hyperinflation, lives ruined forever.

And house prices to fall by at least 50% and up to 90%.

Here we are 15% peak to present in over a year ??!!! A bit dissapointing no? Certainly unexpected.

So what happens now. How much further will real house prices fall. I feel that even the HPC official prediction of 40 - 50% may be silly.

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HOLA4425

It's an interesting question/observation - there's actually a degree of disbelief around at the moment about the current rally in the market. Why are prices stabilizing - or actually rising?

There are a few points I'd make about this question:

1. At the moment there aren't a lot of forced sellers - repossessions have risen, for sure, but not massively. There's been no fire sale in the BTL market because low interest rates and strong rental demand are supporting a lot of landlords.

2. Stock levels are low at the moment - down 20% year-on-year according to our new House Prices & Affordability Index.

http://www.findaproperty.com/media/house-prices/FindaProperty_HPA_Index_Sep09.pdf' rel="external nofollow">

3. Low supply levels have supported prices. But while prices are rising at present there are significant divergences in the market - strongest at the top end and for larger properties; but still falling at the lower end (our index segments the market into first-time buyers and movers).

4. The reason for this is fairly straightforward - it's all about who can move at present, and that's a limited number of people with equity (older homeowners), cash (professional investors, the wealthy), first-timers with large deposits, and overseas buyers attracting by weak pound. These buyers are predominantly at the middle to upper ends of market and are chasing limited stock (with 1m people in negative equity the possibility of selling/moving is constrained).

For the crash scenario you desire you would need some of the following to happen:

  • Increased unemployment leading to more forced sales and stock increases
  • Higher interest rates putting pressure on owners
  • A tougher Gov/banking policy that pushed more struggling owners into repossession and sell-off
  • A continuation, or exacerbation of current tight lending situation
  • Further troubles in the financial markets

Whether these things will happen remains to be seen – but do you really want to see more unemployment, and more repossessions?

My own view is the current revival in prices is relatively shallow and will probably ease off – thereafter we will see prices bumping along the bottom over the coming year.

I’d be interested to hear views on this!

Cheers

Michael O'Flynn

FindaProperty.com

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