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Hung Parliament

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Latest Poll just flashed up on Sky, 37%, 30%, 21% (Con, Lab, Lib) and in fact the last few that have come out, have pointed to a hung parliament next May/June. (vote swing as per http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator)

Now, if no one party is first past the post, am I right in thinking that any other parties that can get first past the post by forming coalitions get a chance to do that? So in other words a Lib Lab pact with 51% of the total vote would actually be able to form a Government?

I think a Tory win is far from a given, much though I'd like it to be.

My "black horse" scenario is where the Tories need the Lib Dems support and try to end up in a "Government of Talents", with Vince Cable as Chancellor. Probably worth a punt at 25-1 at Ladbrokes or better at Betfair...

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If you had the Tories slashing spending and welfare and the LibDems making sure the rich pay all

the tax they're meant to ... it would be a very good option.

Can't see it myself. Tories way ahead and they've not said or done anything. They must have loads

saved up to destroy Labour ..... it wouldn't take much effort.

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I think a Tory win is far from a given, much though I'd like it to be.

My "black horse" scenario is where the Tories need the Lib Dems support and try to end up in a "Government of Talents", with Vince Cable as Chancellor. Probably worth a punt at 25-1 at Ladbrokes or better at Betfair...

Part of the problem is that the electoral boundaries are skewed against the conservatives; if Labour had a 37-30 lead they'd be looking at a majority of well over 100.

Can't see the libs wanting to work with the conservatives, politically they're much closer to Labour and would probably support them in return for electoral reform. Probably would only happen if the conservatives fall short of an overall majority by a few seats.

Would the conservatives even want to form a minority/coalition government? Given the state of the public finances you'd almost want to say "let the lib/labs f*** the country up even more and give us a call once we've gone to the IMF"

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Now, if no one party is first past the post, am I right in thinking that any other parties that can get first past the post by forming coalitions get a chance to do that? So in other words a Lib Lab pact with 51% of the total vote would actually be able to form a Government?

No, you're not right in thinking that.

The sovereign will ask whoever claims to have a majority in the Commons - whether by their own party or a combination - to form a government. If no-one is able to do so, there could be a minority government, and as long as they don't get voted down on 'important' issues, they'd carry on.

The overall vote in the country has nothing to do with it (at present) - it's all down to power at Westminster. If Brown's plan, mentioned yesterday, comes to pass, perhaps there'll be a more representative government in power in the future.

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No, you're not right in thinking that.

The sovereign will ask whoever claims to have a majority in the Commons - whether by their own party or a combination - to form a government. If no-one is able to do so, there could be a minority government, and as long as they don't get voted down on 'important' issues, they'd carry on.

The overall vote in the country has nothing to do with it (at present) - it's all down to power at Westminster. If Brown's plan, mentioned yesterday, comes to pass, perhaps there'll be a more representative government in power in the future.

Yeah, wonder why Crash is suddenly all for electoral reform?

If you're looking to give credit I think the Libs deserve just a teensy bit more.

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Latest Poll just flashed up on Sky, 37%, 30%, 21% (Con, Lab, Lib) and in fact the last few that have come out, have pointed to a hung parliament next May/June. (vote swing as per http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator)

Now, if no one party is first past the post, am I right in thinking that any other parties that can get first past the post by forming coalitions get a chance to do that? So in other words a Lib Lab pact with 51% of the total vote would actually be able to form a Government?

I think a Tory win is far from a given, much though I'd like it to be.

My "black horse" scenario is where the Tories need the Lib Dems support and try to end up in a "Government of Talents", with Vince Cable as Chancellor. Probably worth a punt at 25-1 at Ladbrokes or better at Betfair...

I will suspend judgement until I see the polls following the Conservative conference.

What I can say is that without the Sun's support over the next eight months Labour will not sustain support at 30%.

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Latest Poll just flashed up on Sky, 37%, 30%, 21% (Con, Lab, Lib) and in fact the last few that have come out, have pointed to a hung parliament next May/June.

This is just a flash in the pan - it always happens at Conference time. Next week you'll see the swing back to the Conservatives. But, it could be close when the election comes. It's OK as long as the Lib Dems don't do too well - they'd jump at the chance of supporting Labour in putting up a PR referendum. PR isn't something the Conservatives support and it's for very good reasons. It would slaughter the party and the idea needs to be slammed.

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This is just a flash in the pan - it always happens at Conference time. Next week you'll see the swing back to the Conservatives. But, it could be close when the election comes. It's OK as long as the Lib Dems don't do too well - they'd jump at the chance of supporting Labour in putting up a PR referendum. PR isn't something the Conservatives support and it's for very good reasons. It would slaughter the party and the idea needs to be slammed.

I support the introduction of some system of proportional representation.

Slaughter the Tories? Top idea!

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There's a very poor correlation between share of the vote and number of seats won - and it especially works against the Liberal Democrats who tend to be geographically spread, rather than being concentrated into specific constituencies. The Lib Dems would have to be polling around 50%+ I would guess to even be in with a chance.

Enough Labour voters will stay at home, and all the Conservatives will come out, certainly in all he marginals. England is Conservative anyway. The real questions will be how the nationalist parties do in Scotland and Wales, how many seats they take away from Labour.

Unless David Cameron is caught in bed with a goat he'll have a majority of 40-80 no problem.

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Unless David Cameron is caught in bed with a goat he'll have a majority of 40-80 no problem.

I have heard the goat story.....

But even if the Tories were to win, do not expect Camermoron to last very long. The Tory Far Right will see him off in short order.

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I have heard the goat story.....

But even if the Tories were to win, do not expect Camermoron to last very long. The Tory Far Right will see him off in short order.

So I guess life must be getting a bit lonely for you Dolly?

Dream on, ZaNu are finished.............. :lol:

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According to www.electoralcalculus.co.uk that poll result (assuming uniform swings in every seat which won't happen) would see the Tories 32 seats short of a majority. The only way they could command a majority would be to link up with the predicted 58 Lib Dems.

Reading polls during conferences is pointless anyway - next week you will see the Tories pulling ahead again as they are on our TVs every day with Labour slipping back a bit.

No point checking the polls until late October - by then people will have forgotten about the conferences.

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Latest Poll just flashed up on Sky, 37%, 30%, 21% (Con, Lab, Lib) and in fact the last few that have come out, have pointed to a hung parliament next May/June.

What percentage of the votes you get has nothing to do with how many seats you get.

Last election, Labout got a third of the votes, but won 2 thirds of the seats.

Labour could get 20% of the votes and still get 51% of the seats... it's simply a case of how good they are at gerrymandering... and they'll have had 12 years to perfect it.

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England will really not like the imposition of a Labour and LibDem co-allied administration.

We will see fireworks if that happens, and it's really not that unlikely.

Incidentally, Clegg is 50-1 to be the next PM, which is a fantastic bet when you consider how strong his hand would be in the event of a hung parliament and a badly damaged and rejected Brown.

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It probably is today but it wasn't at the last election.

Actually it was. More people voted Conservative than Labour at the last election.

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According to www.electoralcalculus.co.uk that poll result (assuming uniform swings in every seat which won't happen) would see the Tories 32 seats short of a majority. The only way they could command a majority would be to link up with the predicted 58 Lib Dems.

Worryingly the same site says that 37-30 in labour favour would give a majority of 104.

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Actually it was. More people voted Conservative than Labour at the last election.

Sorry about that; I should have remembered that it was more seats that Labour had than Conservatives. Whether we like it or not, that's what counts.

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If the Conservatives want to form the government in the event of a hung parliament, they will have to promise to hold a referendum too ...

That is highly unlikely. If the PR system proposed is one where the voter gives a first and a second choice vote, the latter to be used if no-one reaches 50%, then the Conservatives will definitely want to avoid it at all cost. It's been calculated that there is a much greater likelihood of Labour and Lib Dem voters giving their second choice to each others party, with the result that the Conservatives would lose out big time. 'Big time' as in 'being out of power for decades'! So, there's no way they'll support it - which is why Brown's suggesting it, of course.

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