1929crash Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...uble-ahead.html Yes, the money entrails can mislead. The gurus squabble like Trotskyists. But you ignore the data at your peril. Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research says that US bank loans have been falling at an annual pace of almost 14pc since early Summer: "There has been nothing like this in the USA since the 1930s." M3 money has been falling at a 5pc rate; M2 fell by 12pc in August; the Commercial Paper market has shrunk from $1.6 trillion to $1.2 trillion since late May; the Monetary Multiplier at the St Louis Fed is below zero (0.925). In Europe, M3 money has been contracting at a 1pc rate since April. Private loans have fallen by €111bn since January. Whether you see a credit crunch in Euroland depends where you sit. It is already garrotting Spain. Germany's Mittelstand says it is "a reality", even if not for big companies that issue bonds. The Economy Ministry is drawing up plans for €250bn in state credit, knowing firms will be unable to roll over debts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_chris c-t_* Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...uble-ahead.html no matter, Merv can force the reserve balances to be lent by simply sending the BofE's rate (for commercial bank deposits) below zero. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Deflation may be going global: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6853348.ece Japan toppled back into the deadly economic trap of long-term deflation today and experts have warned that the trend could blight the world's second largest economy for at least another three years. August consumer prices plummeted at a record rate of 2.4 per cent compared with a year earlier, adding momentum to a deflationary force that threatens to stifle economic recovery. The drop, though broadly in line with analyst predictions, prompted several prominent analysts to issue dark predictions of worse to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1929crash Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 no matter, Merv can force the reserve balances to be lent by simply sending the BofE's rate (for commercial bank deposits) below zero. Is that what the Swedish Riksbank is doing? There was a thread about Merv's vist to Sweden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Is that what the Swedish Riksbank is doing? There was a thread about Merv's vist to Sweden. The economists of london are at the BoE today having QE "explained" to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 IMO, we will likely get deflation until the current currency is either abandoned or freshly printed money is given to people, rather than the banks. How long they will wait is anyone's guess, but at some point they are bound to decide to "fix it" through debasement/replacement of the currency. QE in its current form seems to mostly* rely on people wanting and being able to borrow. If they won't or can't the QE money will remain in the banks and prices will fall due to less demand. *As The Spaniard pointed out the other day, gilts held then sold to the BoE by none-banks would be inflationary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Just out of interest, how many 'Ms' are there - I assume there is a M1 and M2 if there is a M3. How high does M goes before it becomes N? And why is what is happening to M3 important? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan B'Stard MP Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 QE in its current form seems to mostly* rely on people wanting and being able to borrow. If they won't or can't the QE money will remain in the banks and prices will fall due to less demand. Banks dont hold QE money within. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 The economists of london are at the BoE today having QE "explained" to them. didnt you receive your compulsory loan application in the post today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 See, no one has answered my question. Truth is, you are all having anxiety over something you do not understand. Those Quarks you know, they're vibrating and are so far apart it means that all of the Universe, including us, is mostly just nothing! There, worry about that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan B'Stard MP Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 (edited) See, no one has answered my question.Truth is, you are all having anxiety over something you do not understand. Those Quarks you know, they're vibrating and are so far apart it means that all of the Universe, including us, is mostly just nothing! There, worry about that! There are two measures in the UK. M0 and M4. There is M4 Lending but this is not a measure of monetary liabilities of the banking sector but asset creation. Often causes confusion. Edited September 29, 2009 by Alan B'Stard MP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiggerUK Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 See, no one has answered my question.Truth is, you are all having anxiety over something you do not understand. Those Quarks you know, they're vibrating and are so far apart it means that all of the Universe, including us, is mostly just nothing! There, worry about that! Actually it is only M42 that you need to comprehend, then you will have reached perfect karma. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uptherebels Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Now then TMT, I'd wager you hadn't considered the prospect of an MO had you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 There are two measures in the UK.M0 and M4. There is M4 Lending but this is not a measure of monetary liabilities of the banking sector but asset creation. Often causes confusion. So why the feck are we talking about M3? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daft Boy Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Just out of interest, how many 'Ms' are there - I assume there is a M1 and M2 if there is a M3. How high does M goes before it becomes N? Good question. My guess, based on fook all, is M9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Banks dont hold QE money within. I don't follow - are you suggesting that banks aren't swapping gilts for money from the BoE? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 So why the feck are we talking about M3? Different central banks release different measurements about their currencies. This may explain it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 There are two measures in the UK.M0 and M4. There is M4 Lending but this is not a measure of monetary liabilities of the banking sector but asset creation. Often causes confusion. how many measures of M4 are there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan B'Stard MP Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 So why the feck are we talking about M3? US probably. Not sure the Fed even publishes M3 anymore. Some spooks dream up their own figures I believe - but how they do this without the official bank returns is anyones guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveAndLetBuy Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 So why the feck are we talking about M3? Maybe it means something in the US? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 (edited) http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/...rrent/index.htm check out table A2.3 for M3 from the BoE and table A5.2 is interesting...specially last December. Edited September 29, 2009 by Bloo Loo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 So, um, basically we are having a discussion about something that no one is prepared to admit that they do not understand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiggerUK Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 So, um, basically we are having a discussion about something that no one is prepared to admit that they do not understand? No, no no. It all becomes clear when you study M42, have faith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 So, um, basically we are having a discussion about something that no one is prepared to admit that they do not understand? you are not supposed to understand it. thats banking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan B'Stard MP Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 So, um, basically we are having a discussion about something that no one is prepared to admit that they do not understand? The european aggregates are produced for our participation in the EU. I believe they can contain foreign currency accounts too. For GBP - M0 and M4 are the official measurements. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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