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F. T.: House Prices Back In Free Fall Again

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/10d4debc-ac1b-11...144feabdc0.html

Land Registry reports slight fall in house prices

By Daniel "Dan" Pimlott, Economics Reporter

Published: September 28 2009 13:46 | Last updated: September 28 2009 13:46

House prices fell slightly in August, but still show a stabilising trend in recent months after the rapid declines seen throughout last year and earlier this year, according to data from the Land Registry.

House prices fell by 0.1 per cent to an average of just under £156,000, the first fall since April and a small slip following a 1.8 per cent rise in July, which was the biggest one month jump since 2004, the Registry reported.

The biggest house price declines were in the Northwest, which saw prices drop by 2.1 per cent, and Yorkshire and Humber, where they fell by 1.8 per cent, more than wiping out gains in the previous month

TBH, I never thought the prices had stopped falling. Jus statistical quirks as fewer, more expensive homes, fouled the stats.

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TBH, I never thought the prices had stopped falling.

You should pop round my neck of the woods some time, that would set you straight.

Of course, in any market, some products will do better than others, and the flip side of your "prices back in free fall" in some areas is that they are still rising in London, the home counties and Oxford, to name but three areas where I know this to be the case.

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You should pop round my neck of the woods some time, that would set you straight.

Of course, in any market, some products will do better than others, and the flip side of your "prices back in free fall" in some areas is that they are still rising in London, the home counties and Oxford, to name but three areas where I know this to be the case.

I am in the SE (near Brighton) and prices are dropping steeply here. I am renting a nice bungalow that was on t' market last year for 260k. Remarketed again earlier this Spring for 230k and its now rented to me because there were no buyers. I suspect it peaked out at about 280k in 2007. The LL has offered to sell it at the end of my 6 month contract and if I was interested I would guess it would sell for just over 200k. Jobs are non-existent in this area and debt is flourishing. No one can afford 10 X income and few banks will offer such loans anyway.

The market in the SE is as doomed as it is up North. Perhaps more so.

According to the LR (which does not factor in the cost of improvements and is accordingingly too optimistic):

Brighton And Hove

Average house price

£243,168

Annual change in house price

-12.9%

According to the data from the LR today, my area (East Sussex) was up 0% last month and down 15.6 for the year. My previous area (Warwickshire) is down a mere 11% which suggests the SE is falling harder and faster?

Edited by Realistbear

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What do these regional figures tell you anyway - the property market in Dagenham is in no way comparable to the property market in Belgravia yet they all fall under the 'London average'.

Would be nice if they produced central London figures - and the rest (where most Londoners live).

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I am in the SE (near Brighton) and prices are dropping steeply here.

With you all the way RB but (near Brighton) is the devilish detail.

Near Cambridge things have crashed, are crashing some, will crash some more but where I really want to live in Cambridge proper things crashed some, are rising now and..well...I do believe will crash some again before we're out.

But let's not be mistaken, attractive areas where wealth (and low IRs of course) keeps supply low and cash can outbid more cash for that limited supply, growth is strong here and now.

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With you all the way RB but (near Brighton) is the devilish detail.

Near Cambridge things have crashed, are crashing some, will crash some more but where I really want to live in Cambridge proper things crashed some, are rising now and..well...I do believe will crash some again before we're out.

But let's not be mistaken, attractive areas where wealth (and low IRs of course) keeps supply low and cash can outbid more cash for that limited supply, growth is strong here and now.

The end game being a few gated communities in the land of gettos

I see some permanent structural changes in the nature of ongoing and planned for the next 6-12 months redundancies:

low- and medium-skilled office tasks and jobs are being outsourced abroad and hard to imagine any alternatives for those laid off

This is like closing the mines with permanent unemployment for majority of the miners but happening in the offices

Edited by threetimesdead

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With you all the way RB but (near Brighton) is the devilish detail.

Near Cambridge things have crashed, are crashing some, will crash some more but where I really want to live in Cambridge proper things crashed some, are rising now and..well...I do believe will crash some again before we're out.

But let's not be mistaken, attractive areas where wealth (and low IRs of course) keeps supply low and cash can outbid more cash for that limited supply, growth is strong here and now.

And there is your devilish detail, it doesn`t matter how sought after an area is, there are only a small amount of people who can pay cash or actually get a loan and be able to pay it when rates rise? Any one who is in the least bit clued in to what is happening will not be firing large sums into property, even for their "dream home"?

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The end game being a few gated communities in the land of gettos

I see some permanent structural changes in the nature of ongoing and planned for the next 6-12 months redundancies:

low- and medium-skilled office tasks and jobs are being outsourced abroad and hard to imagine any alternatives for those laid off

This is like closing the mines with permanent unemployment for majority of the miners but happening in the offices

Alas I fear you are right!

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The end game being a few gated communities in the land of gettos

I see some permanent structural changes in the nature of ongoing and planned for the next 6-12 months redundancies:

low- and medium-skilled office tasks and jobs are being outsourced abroad and hard to imagine any alternatives for those laid off

This is like closing the mines with permanent unemployment for majority of the miners but happening in the offices

An alternative could be burning "immigrants" out of their homes which is why some form of protectionism will have to be a feature of the future? The globalisation/outsourcing dream is over?

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An alternative could be burning "immigrants" out of their homes which is why some form of protectionism will have to be a feature of the future? The globalisation/outsourcing dream is over?

TB as first President of EU living like an immigrant under a bridge in Brussels?

Edited by threetimesdead

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The end game being a few gated communities in the land of gettos

I see some permanent structural changes in the nature of ongoing and planned for the next 6-12 months redundancies:

low- and medium-skilled office tasks and jobs are being outsourced abroad and hard to imagine any alternatives for those laid off

This is like closing the mines with permanent unemployment for majority of the miners but happening in the offices

Really. Which jobs are being outsourced?

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/10d4debc-ac1b-11...144feabdc0.html

Land Registry reports slight fall in house prices

By Daniel "Dan" Pimlott, Economics Reporter

Published: September 28 2009 13:46 | Last updated: September 28 2009 13:46

House prices fell slightly in August, but still show a stabilising trend in recent months after the rapid declines seen throughout last year and earlier this year, according to data from the Land Registry.

House prices fell by 0.1 per cent to an average of just under £156,000, the first fall since April and a small slip following a 1.8 per cent rise in July, which was the biggest one month jump since 2004, the Registry reported.

The biggest house price declines were in the Northwest, which saw prices drop by 2.1 per cent, and Yorkshire and Humber, where they fell by 1.8 per cent, more than wiping out gains in the previous month

TBH, I never thought the prices had stopped falling. Jus statistical quirks as fewer, more expensive homes, fouled the stats.

Traveling around the country i see large areas of the country were there are a lot of properties for sale, Don't see any shortage as some indicate.

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I am in the SE (near Brighton) and prices are dropping steeply here. I am renting a nice bungalow that was on t' market last year for 260k. Remarketed again earlier this Spring for 230k and its now rented to me because there were no buyers. I suspect it peaked out at about 280k in 2007. The LL has offered to sell it at the end of my 6 month contract and if I was interested I would guess it would sell for just over 200k. Jobs are non-existent in this area and debt is flourishing. No one can afford 10 X income and few banks will offer such loans anyway.

The market in the SE is as doomed as it is up North. Perhaps more so.

According to the LR (which does not factor in the cost of improvements and is accordingingly too optimistic):

Brighton And Hove

Average house price

£243,168

Annual change in house price

-12.9%

According to the data from the LR today, my area (East Sussex) was up 0% last month and down 15.6 for the year. My previous area (Warwickshire) is down a mere 11% which suggests the SE is falling harder and faster?

I think you'll find that while property prices just outside Brighton and Hove may have kept falling during summer (although I doubt if it was that steep), property prices within Brighton and Hove definitely have bounced.

You've selectively chosen to quote yoy figures to show the prices in Brighton are lower than a year ago (of course they are), but this monthly breakdown over the last year (taken from the Land Registry site) shows a clear bounce during the last few months:

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprice...amp;image2.y=14

You'll also find plenty of anecdotals to back this up the Brighton thread.

I don't like the fact that prices have bounced either, but we shouldn't try to hide it.

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Traveling around the country i see large areas of the country were there are a lot of properties for sale, Don't see any shortage as some indicate.

Shortage of houses? No.

Shortage of good quality houses? Definitely in some parts... I am occasionally looking around in the better parts of Surrey and the only property that is reduced is the rubbish that has been on the market for a few months. Good properties are made offers within weeks of coming on to the market and these offers are at least asking price.

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The article doesn't actually say or prove that 'prices are back in Free Fall again' ..... <_<

No need to gild the lilly - I expect some objectivity when reading this site. If people go nuts at every small bit of news it really detracts from the usefulness of HPC.

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Near Cambridge things have crashed, are crashing some, will crash some more but where I really want to live in Cambridge proper things crashed some, are rising now and..well...I do believe will crash some again before we're out.

I live in Cherry Hinton (about 1.5 miles from Cambridge City Centre) and we now seem to be back to 2007 peak prices. Houses on my road are now being sold for £220k after a brief spell last year of £200k asking prices.

However as you say places like Huntingdon, Ely etc are down a lot.

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I don't like the fact that prices have bounced either, but we shouldn't try to hide it.

+1 to being open that reality sometimes diverges from one's expectations

Some areas up 2%, some down 2%, overall -0.1%

In summary: flat.

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I though Land Registry figures lagged 3 months behind.

Round my way you'd be forgiven for thinking there's a property boom going on (SW England). All those 'frozen' building sites are full-steam ahead again and a major new housing development that has been on hold for years (not just the recession) has begun. I think this might be a bit premature, though, I can see it all going pear-shaped when we get the first rise in interest rates.

Edited by blankster

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And there is your devilish detail, it doesn`t matter how sought after an area is, there are only a small amount of people who can pay cash or actually get a loan and be able to pay it when rates rise? Any one who is in the least bit clued in to what is happening will not be firing large sums into property, even for their "dream home"?

Agree 100% --- but you'd be amazed [maybe not] at how DUMB many people are.... SO MANY supposedly "Intelligent" people really do believe that there is a "recovery" - and don't even have an INKLING of a clue as to how utterly unsustainable property "prices" are to the economy and general well-being of the UK.....

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The article doesn't actually say or prove that 'prices are back in Free Fall again' ..... <_<

No need to gild the lilly -

I've been watching RB gilding for 5 years .

Tedious at best.

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I've been watching RB gilding for 5 years .

Tedious at best.

I don't want to put words in to RB's mouth but I suspect he is making an ironic point about the positive spin in the media by doing the same thing in reverse.

Thats all.

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