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Where Will The Housing Stock Level Be In Ni In A Few Years?

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http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaki.../breaking31.htm

How long until the government in the south starts knocking down the worst ghost estates ?

Interesting stuff.

Does anyone know what the "normal" level of yearly transactions is for NI?

In my own business I'm always looking 3,5 and 7 years down the line. I'm interested to know where you guys think the housing stock will be a few years from now.

Maybe this should be a new thread?

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Interesting stuff.

Does anyone know what the "normal" level of yearly transactions is for NI?

In my own business I'm always looking 3,5 and 7 years down the line. I'm interested to know where you guys think the housing stock will be a few years from now.

Maybe this should be a new thread?

I think in the boom years there was over 40,000 transactions per year. Most of them were re-sale or second hand houses. New-build (increased supply), depending on which report ranged between 14,000 and 17,000 units. Taking out the boom years (2005 & 2006) the average has been 10,000 to 12,000 pa. This last two years it would not have went over 4,000 pa.

In good areas supply will return to its norm but in the secondary areas, where there has been a lot of construction in the boom, the oversupply hangover will last longer.

This is in stark contrast to the ROI where the oversupply was chronic.

They have a population of 4m and they were building 80,000 pa (1 house for every 50 people)

The UK has a pop of 60m and they were building about 150,000 pa (1 house for every 400 people)

NI, apart from 1 mad year builds around 10,000 for a pop of 1.8m (1 house for every 180 people)

There is no magic number or ratio to aim for. You have to take into account the age of the building stock, the age and demographics of the pop', the birth/marriage/divorce & death rate of the pop. All these things differ per region.

ROI way too high, UK too low and we are perhaps about right. A bigger question is what are we building. During the year or so of the boom, when the figures shot up, there was a larger proportion of apartments. This has left a serious oversupply of this housing type and it could be argued, and something that will become clearer in the future, there is a serious under supply of proper family housing.

Figures may be published of empty stock. 80% of these are uninhabitable and mostly owned by the HE, but in the future an increasing number of these may well be city centre apartments. However this should not hide the fact that underneath this there will be a shortage of family housing.

So you can guess where we are, and have been focusing.

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I think in the boom years there was over 40,000 transactions per year. Most of them were re-sale or second hand houses. New-build (increased supply), depending on which report ranged between 14,000 and 17,000 units. Taking out the boom years (2005 & 2006) the average has been 10,000 to 12,000 pa. This last two years it would not have went over 4,000 pa.

In good areas supply will return to its norm but in the secondary areas, where there has been a lot of construction in the boom, the oversupply hangover will last longer.

This is in stark contrast to the ROI where the oversupply was chronic.

They have a population of 4m and they were building 80,000 pa (1 house for every 50 people)

The UK has a pop of 60m and they were building about 150,000 pa (1 house for every 400 people)

NI, apart from 1 mad year builds around 10,000 for a pop of 1.8m (1 house for every 180 people)

There is no magic number or ratio to aim for. You have to take into account the age of the building stock, the age and demographics of the pop', the birth/marriage/divorce & death rate of the pop. All these things differ per region.

ROI way too high, UK too low and we are perhaps about right. A bigger question is what are we building. During the year or so of the boom, when the figures shot up, there was a larger proportion of apartments. This has left a serious oversupply of this housing type and it could be argued, and something that will become clearer in the future, there is a serious under supply of proper family housing.

Figures may be published of empty stock. 80% of these are uninhabitable and mostly owned by the HE, but in the future an increasing number of these may well be city centre apartments. However this should not hide the fact that underneath this there will be a shortage of family housing.

So you can guess where we are, and have been focusing.

How much of an oversupply of apartments is there I wonder? As a housing option they have only been recently available in NI and since then we've had the speculation-led boom, which has distorted things a bit.

On the other hand I see a lot of family homes being rented by students/young couples who might be the natural buyers/renters of apartments. I see this as unusual but perhaps i'm wrong?

While personally I don't see the point of the 'city centre apartment' option in a city the size of Belfast, it seems to appeal to many. In addition to this, the phenomenon of 'commuter towns' is one also relatively new to NI.

Basically what i'm saying is that it seems that we have an apartment oversupply and family home undersupply, but perhaps that is because our house-buying/renting demographic hasn't really established itself properly yet?

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Basically what i'm saying is that it seems that we have an apartment oversupply and family home undersupply, but perhaps that is because our house-buying/renting demographic hasn't really established itself properly yet?

What do mean by "house-buying/renting demographic"? Is this something more established on mainland UK / mainland Europe?

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What do mean by "house-buying/renting demographic"? Is this something more established on mainland UK / mainland Europe?

Rather than who is renting or buying, I mean that NI has changed a lot in terms of employment, wealth, security and so on over the last 10 years. The city centre has changed immeasurably and in many ways we are only now catching up with where other European cities have been for decades. Transport and infrastructure has also improved and centres of employment moved. This will inevitably have an effect on where people choose to live and the type of housing.

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Rather than who is renting or buying, I mean that NI has changed a lot in terms of employment, wealth, security and so on over the last 10 years. The city centre has changed immeasurably and in many ways we are only now catching up with where other European cities have been for decades. Transport and infrastructure has also improved and centres of employment moved. This will inevitably have an effect on where people choose to live and the type of housing.

One only has to drive into Belfast along the M2 or M3 between 7-9am and see how heavy the traffic is to see that certainly there have been great changes in the demographics as you mention SP. Perhaps this heavy traffic is a symptom of this.

Edited by VedantaTrader

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Rather than who is renting or buying, I mean that NI has changed a lot in terms of employment, wealth, security and so on over the last 10 years. The city centre has changed immeasurably and in many ways we are only now catching up with where other European cities have been for decades. Transport and infrastructure has also improved and centres of employment moved. This will inevitably have an effect on where people choose to live and the type of housing.

You have to remember that only 15 years ago Belfast City Centre was locked up at night. No one went there, never mind lived there. Belfast was the only city in Europe where nobody lived in the city centre. So with the peace process etc came the massive influx of city living that was missing before. Also at the time a sit-com called Friends took off. This had a major effect of the young population, where they choose to extend the student lifestyle into the 20's and live/rent /own an apartment. This all went well until 2001 when a, perhaps unnoticed mini-crash/correction too place, partly because of oversupply of apartments and partly because of 9/11. However 6 mths later the general housing market began again, however apartments lagged and didn't boom again to perhaps 2004/2005. The rest is history.

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Figures may be published of empty stock. 80% of these are uninhabitable and mostly owned by the HE, but in the future an increasing number of these may well be city centre apartments. However this should not hide the fact that underneath this there will be a shortage of family housing.

I still have not gotten to the bottom of that, there seems to be a big discrepancy in figures knocking about. I have 60,000 empty houses from the 2009 HE housing market review, half of which occurred in the last 3 years centred around the boom. It was stated that around 7,500 where uninhabitable in 2006, seems more like 80% are habitable.

Anyway current transaction level is about 4,000 pa, I'd say a normal amount would be 10K/year. Interestinly the UK figures seem to oscillate on a 2-3 year cycle, but gradually increase I guess with population (or credit?). The heights of 1988 are only 2.2x the lows of 1992. But of course we might break some records this time, and N.I might be the worst of all.

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/ho...ls/table533.xls

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Also at the time a sit-com called Friends took off. This had a major effect of the young population, where they choose to extend the student lifestyle into the 20's and live/rent /own an apartment.

Have you any research to back this up?

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Have you any research to back this up?

No, I doubt if it exists. But when you are in the game as long as I am you see the new trends sweep in. The first apartment phase: 'the Manhattan apartment', IMHO was heavily influenced by the lifestyle seen on sitcoms at the time. I remember Estate Agents also discussing this. I remember discussions like 'The apartments had to be designed with the the open plan, Manhattan style, that people seen on Friends'. They were bigger then and of course there was alot less of them.

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