ollie plimsolls Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 The August data from Land Registry shows a fairly flat market with a monthly house price change of -0.1 per cent. The annual drop of 9.4 per cent - up from a low of 16.3 per cent in February - takes the average house price in England and Wales to £155,968.Monthly sales in England and Wales have risen steadily during the first half of the year to 48,903 - up from 26,517 in January. LR Aug 09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Sig updated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piece of paper Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 One interesting point. L/R lags Haliwide by 3 or 4 months. There seems to be a bit of a dislocation. I'm sure that Sibley's excitathon started more than 4 months ago. p-o-p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 They've revised last month's figure up slightly LR HPI July £156,170 (revised up from £155,885) +1.8% MoM -11.5% YoY Aug £155,962 -0.1% MoM -9.4% YoY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Is it just me or does the bull trap feel like it is running out of steam ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohrayme Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Is it just me or does the bull trap feel like it is running out of steam ??? Don't worry, I'm sure it will pick up over the winter... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 LR HPI 2009: Jan £157,073 Feb £153,922 Mar £153,041 Apr £152,803 <---- min May £152,867 Jun £153,385 Jul £156,170 Aug £155,968 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rachman Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 They've revised last month's figure up slightlyLR HPI July £156,170 (revised up from £155,885) +1.8% MoM -11.5% YoY Aug £155,962 -0.1% MoM -9.4% YoY up slightly ? That's 21.6% annually (which of course it won't be...0When is the next tranche of data hitting the LR website (and the sold prices websites) - they will cover the end of July and August (for those who filed on time) - I am awaiting them with a great deal of interest (as I believe a number of properties agents are claiming sold (sold, not under offer, or STC) in their sales bumf did not actually sell) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buytoilet Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Is it just me or does the bull trap feel like it is running out of steam ??? Oh yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hpc_uk08 Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Excellent news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 One interesting point. L/R lags Haliwide by 3 or 4 months. There seems to be a bit of a dislocation. I'm sure that Sibley's excitathon started more than 4 months ago. p-o-p It's probably just noise. Whilst it would be nice, I can't see how the LR can start the next leg down before the other indexes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountryMove Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 (edited) LR Aug 09 Hehe here's what the BBC have to say about it: "House prices see 'slight decline' House prices in England and Wales fell very slightly in August, according to the Land Registry" But to be fair they do end with: "The property market is surprisingly buoyant at present and sellers are achieving some attractive prices," he said. Just how long this will last, though, is by no means certain" http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8278129.stm (Edit to remove question marks which I put for some reason at the end of a sentence which wasn't a question) Edited September 28, 2009 by welsh1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveat Mortgagor Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 (edited) It's probably just noise.Whilst it would be nice, I can't see how the LR can start the next leg down before the other indexes. It would be interesting if there was a cash buyers index. Maybe LR is has cut free from its ususal lag of the other indicies because cash buyers are turning the screw! If this was the case which other indices would be affected? I think HMRC only report on volumes of sales without attaching a value. Edit: Cannit speel! Edited September 28, 2009 by Nick Dastardly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piece of paper Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 It's probably just noise.Whilst it would be nice, I can't see how the LR can start the next leg down before the other indexes. I agree that the figures are so small that it is probably insignificant but a certain Mr Loo might latch onto it as evidence in support of his "Haliwide is approvals not completions - What about the broken chains?" dissertation. p-o-p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 (edited) It would be interesting if there was a cash buyers index. Maybe LR is has cut free from its ususal lag of the other indicies because cash buyers are turning the screw! If this was the case which other indices would be afected? I think HMRC only report on volumes of sales without attaching a value. Other than that, the revised FTHPI figure should be affected if that was the case, but as they are based on LR, that would add little to the debate. As far as I am aware, all the rest are either asking prices, or lenders prices*. * this includes the DCLG "index". Edited September 28, 2009 by Timm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 LR Aug 09 thanks Monthly sales volumes are still very low considering the amount of intervention! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bb7t6 Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 I agree that the figures are so small that it is probably insignificant but a certain Mr Loo might latch onto it as evidence in support of his "Haliwide is approvals not completions - What about the broken chains?" dissertation.p-o-p Halifax index was actually down MoM by 0.5% in June, is this the period that these latest LR figures would be representing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 (edited) Halifax index was actually down MoM by 0.5% in June, is this the period that these latest LR figures would be representing? Here’s the comparison between LR and Haliwide: annualised QoQ and YoY on a shifted timeline to reflect the mid-point of the interval (YoY 6m and QoQ 1.5m) using SA data from each index [Nationwide is a rolling QoQ]. The agreement is quite good with LR showing the expected lag. Interactive charts: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/graphs Edited September 28, 2009 by spline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 As notmyrealname has poited out elsewhere, the LR seems to be backing up the Halifax more than NW. Of course, the Halifax is showing a much smaller bull trap... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 One interesting point. L/R lags Haliwide by 3 or 4 months. There seems to be a bit of a dislocation. I'm sure that Sibley's excitathon started more than 4 months ago. p-o-p Earlier in the year the times reported some 40% of sales were cash sales. That is ONE HELL of a percentage for Haliwide to be missing out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 How can this be a negative figure when they are supposed to lag the recent Halifax and Nationwide increases by months? Aren't the Halifax and Nationwide figures to be trusted? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaisyB Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 (edited) thanksMonthly sales volumes are still very low considering the amount of intervention! Graph shows sales by month since 1995, yellow line is 12 month trend (Excel standard methodology). Volumes are at an all time low. The market is dying /stagnating and unless prices drop it will continue to do so Edited September 28, 2009 by DaisyB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Graph shows sales by month since 1995, yellow line is 12 month trend (Excel standard methodology). Volumes are at an all time low. The market is dying /stagnating and unless prices drop it will continue to do so thanks. I dunno prices can stabilise because of supply side measures. Still this will just delay the market sorting this mess out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awaytogo Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Is it just me or does the bull trap feel like it is running out of steam ??? No steam left just free wheeling downhill now/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awaytogo Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 (edited) Don't worry, I'm sure it will pick up over the winter... The Registry's figures add weight to recent suggestions that this year's revival in both prices and sales may be running out of steam, at least over the summer --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Could be a long winter Edited September 28, 2009 by ontheirwaydown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.