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ollie plimsolls

Land Registry Aug 09 Mom -0.1 Yoy -9.4

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The August data from Land Registry shows a fairly flat market with a monthly house price change of -0.1 per cent. The annual drop of 9.4 per cent - up from a low of 16.3 per cent in February - takes the average house price in England and Wales to £155,968.

Monthly sales in England and Wales have risen steadily during the first half of the year to 48,903 - up from 26,517 in January.

LR Aug 09

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They've revised last month's figure up slightly

LR HPI

July £156,170 (revised up from £155,885) +1.8% MoM -11.5% YoY

Aug £155,962 -0.1% MoM -9.4% YoY

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LR HPI 2009:

Jan £157,073

Feb £153,922

Mar £153,041

Apr £152,803 <---- min

May £152,867

Jun £153,385

Jul £156,170

Aug £155,968

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They've revised last month's figure up slightly

LR HPI

July £156,170 (revised up from £155,885) +1.8% MoM -11.5% YoY

Aug £155,962 -0.1% MoM -9.4% YoY

up slightly ? That's 21.6% annually (which of course it won't be...0

When is the next tranche of data hitting the LR website (and the sold prices websites) - they will cover the end of July and August (for those who filed on time) - I am awaiting them with a great deal of interest (as I believe a number of properties agents are claiming sold (sold, not under offer, or STC) in their sales bumf did not actually sell)

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One interesting point. L/R lags Haliwide by 3 or 4 months. There seems to be a bit of a dislocation. I'm sure that Sibley's excitathon started more than 4 months ago. p-o-p

It's probably just noise.

Whilst it would be nice, I can't see how the LR can start the next leg down before the other indexes.

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Hehe here's what the BBC have to say about it:

"House prices see 'slight decline'

House prices in England and Wales fell very slightly in August, according to the Land Registry"

But to be fair they do end with:

"The property market is surprisingly buoyant at present and sellers are achieving some attractive prices," he said.

Just how long this will last, though, is by no means certain"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8278129.stm

(Edit to remove question marks which I put for some reason at the end of a sentence which wasn't a question)

Edited by welsh1

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It's probably just noise.

Whilst it would be nice, I can't see how the LR can start the next leg down before the other indexes.

It would be interesting if there was a cash buyers index.

Maybe LR is has cut free from its ususal lag of the other indicies because cash buyers are turning the screw!

If this was the case which other indices would be affected? I think HMRC only report on volumes of sales without attaching a value.

Edit: Cannit speel!

Edited by Nick Dastardly

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It's probably just noise.

Whilst it would be nice, I can't see how the LR can start the next leg down before the other indexes.

I agree that the figures are so small that it is probably insignificant but a certain Mr Loo might latch onto it as evidence in support of his "Haliwide is approvals not completions - What about the broken chains?" dissertation.

p-o-p

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It would be interesting if there was a cash buyers index. Maybe LR is has cut free from its ususal lag of the other indicies because cash buyers are turning the screw! If this was the case which other indices would be afected? I think HMRC only report on volumes of sales without attaching a value.

Other than that, the revised FTHPI figure should be affected if that was the case, but as they are based on LR, that would add little to the debate.

As far as I am aware, all the rest are either asking prices, or lenders prices*.

* this includes the DCLG "index".

Edited by Timm

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I agree that the figures are so small that it is probably insignificant but a certain Mr Loo might latch onto it as evidence in support of his "Haliwide is approvals not completions - What about the broken chains?" dissertation.

p-o-p

Halifax index was actually down MoM by 0.5% in June, is this the period that these latest LR figures would be representing?

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Halifax index was actually down MoM by 0.5% in June, is this the period that these latest LR figures would be representing?

Here’s the comparison between LR and Haliwide: annualised QoQ and YoY on a shifted timeline to reflect the mid-point of the interval (YoY 6m and QoQ 1.5m) using SA data from each index [Nationwide is a rolling QoQ]. The agreement is quite good with LR showing the expected lag.

29qe6wm.jpg

Interactive charts:

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/graphs

Edited by spline

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As notmyrealname has poited out elsewhere, the LR seems to be backing up the Halifax more than NW.

Of course, the Halifax is showing a much smaller bull trap...

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One interesting point. L/R lags Haliwide by 3 or 4 months. There seems to be a bit of a dislocation.

I'm sure that Sibley's excitathon started more than 4 months ago.

p-o-p

Earlier in the year the times reported some 40% of sales were cash sales. That is ONE HELL of a percentage for Haliwide to be missing out.

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thanks

Monthly sales volumes are still very low considering the amount of intervention!

Graph shows sales by month since 1995, yellow line is 12 month trend (Excel standard methodology). Volumes are at an all time low. The market is dying /stagnating and unless prices drop it will continue to do so

ResSales.JPG

post-11344-1254150309_thumb.jpg

Edited by DaisyB

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Graph shows sales by month since 1995, yellow line is 12 month trend (Excel standard methodology). Volumes are at an all time low. The market is dying /stagnating and unless prices drop it will continue to do so

thanks.

I dunno prices can stabilise because of supply side measures. Still this will just delay the market sorting this mess out.

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Don't worry, I'm sure it will pick up over the winter... <_<

The Registry's figures add weight to recent suggestions that this year's revival in both prices and sales may be running out of steam, at least over the summer

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Could be a long winter :P

Edited by ontheirwaydown

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