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Buffer Bear

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b40046ee-ab94-11...144feabdc0.html

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/a...wG_ep-nAxDh07DQ

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/130400...e-rise-in-South

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aBSapiGlLQ.Y

House prices rise in London and SE

By Daniel Pimlott, Economics Reporter

Published: September 28 2009 00:02 | Last updated: September 28 2009 00:02

House prices rose in September, but the improvement is concentrated in London and the South-East and is being driven by a shortage of homes on the market, according to a report out on Monday.

Hometrack, the housing market data group, said prices rose by 0.2 per cent this month and for the second month in a row, after two years of falling or stagnant values. Rising prices have been recorded by all the main measures of the market, and its recovery has been one of the biggest surprises among a plethora of green shoots sprouting across the economy.

“A general lack of supply is set to remain a feature of the housing market over the medium term, but as prices rise and sellers become more demanding, so the recent pick-up in activity may well start to moderate over the autumn,†said Richard Donnell, Hometrack’s research director.

Several aspects of the report suggest that prices may be unable to keep up the pace. First, the price rises are focused on only a few areas. In London prices rose by 0.4 per cent last month, and in the South- East they rose by 0.3 per cent. But in the north, Wales, Yorkshire, the East Midlands and East Anglia prices were flat.

Edited to add links!

Edited by Buffer Bear

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That's good news.

Anything up is what we want. It's setting homeowners in the mood that houses only ever go up.

This credit crunch lark wasn't that bad. Now you can see it was only a blip and you only had to sit it out a year.

Me, me, me, me.

"Only a blip" - tell that to the 100s of thousands who have lost their jobs, and remain unemployed.

"Only a blip" :lol:

:rolleyes:

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bankers of course will now be able to stop buying up their own possessions and start to look at valuing their other assets properly now?

no?

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There are not enough people on here that actually want prices to simply level out as they are now.

If they fall more then more people will be in neg eq and cash buyers prosper but if they rise, then people wth homes are happy and the FTB is at a disadvantage.

Its one or the other on here and depending where you are in the UK you are affected more or less. We will never ALL be happy.....

Edited by munners

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Some recent favourite quotes

On top of all this, the housing market, a key economic component, remains in the doldrums, with transactions and mortgage lending still frozen at extremely low levels. The recent hype regarding a series of summer house price rises should be discarded, as it's based on severely depressed sales levels, and it is likely that a second - and prolonged - fall in prices is imminent. Banks are simply not open for business and a large deposit and unblemished credit rating are prerequisites for today’s buyers, holding a true market recovery firmly at bay.

Also confirmed by Rightmove's own HPI August :

Future price and transaction growth is now controlled by the bottleneck of mortgage availability. This is unlikely to change for years to come, with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasting that mortgage application levels will recover slowly and remain well below the levels seen in he early part of this decade as far ahead s 2013. Even in 2013 the CEBR state that numbers will still be 24% below 2006 levels. This may well reflect a paradigm shift in access to mortgage lending. While HSBC is the only major lender to have taken a more proactive stance and increased its market share, its reported average loan-to-value of circa 50% on new mortgage lending is a perfect illustration of the new era of both caution and cherry picking.

RM's HPI September suggesting it will take 10 years for the banking system to rebuild let alone return to normal lending as opposed to irresponsible lending that led to the 2007 crash:

.....too few buyers can put down the 40% deposits that are needed in order to secure the best mortgage deals. Finance greases the wheels of the property market, and it is anybody’s guess when we might see the necessary level of competitive funding return. Frustrated homehunters should note the expected ten year timetable to wind up Lehman Brothers, giving a clear indication of the time required to rebuild the banking system.â€

Moneyweek

.....Further, although there's been a big brouhaha about the latest HSBC 1.99% home loan offer, don't expect many

other lenders to follow suit. A lot of lending power has now left the market for good. Almost £300bn of UK mortgage debt was securitised, i.e. packaged up and sold off from bank balance sheets onto the bond markets, between 2005 and 2007.

"That represents more than 90% of the growth in mortgage debt over that period", says CreditSights. And "the world isn't exactly clamouring for British securitised mortgages anymore, and won't be for a long time", says Matthew Lynn on Bloomberg. "With less money coming into the market, there won't be the same kind of demand for houses".

Yet a Rightmove survey at the end of August gave the "encouraging" signal that 78% of respondents reckoned UK house prices won't fall any further this year. And also that "the UK property industry is now seeing a virtuous circle of confidence building upon confidence".

Why's this another worry? Well, as Fidelity's Anthony Bolton explained in the weekend's FT about the stock market, "if everyone is positioned for the market to rise, it means these bullish expectations are already discounted" – i.e. factored into the price. As a result, "the market often moves to make the majority wrong and does the unexpected… so at turning points especially, the correct is the minority view".

And while there are plenty of differences between shares and houses, the principles of crowd behaviour are the same for every asset class. When almost everyone is bullish, get ready for a price fall. The near-8.5% bounce in property prices within the last six months (using Nationwide's figures at least) now looks ripe for a reversal.

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There are not enough people on here that actually want prices to simply level out as they are now.

If they fall more then more people will be in neg eq and cash buyers prosper but if they rise, then people wth homes are happy and the FTB is at a disadvantage.

Its one or the other on here and depending where you are in the UK you are affected more or less. We will never ALL be happy.....

with salaries falling and unemployment rising, which it is, and the pound falling and therefore food costs rising, even stable prices are a nightmare for sellers.

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Is it slightly better than 'irrationalization' and simply listening to the press / government and VI's ? Surely what I do is only what we all do, except I would like to think I try to quote that which points towards what is actually taking place closer to the realm of reality than the view that house prices are on the up.........

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I'm sorry it's just I thought it would help to sit back and consider whether you are being over selective in trying to bolster your resolve, perhaps because you so deeply wish it to be true. In these circumstances if you turn out to be incorrect, it could lead to deep resentment.

For what it's worth, I think we are in for the long haul. It may only be when you look back in 10 years time you find out that prices have corrected another 30-40% in real terms. At that speed people won't even really notice it's happening.

Deep resentment ? Not me. In my own simple way I try to intuit trends. I read all the stuff and ask myself what feels right, what we currently have does not feel right , I do sense that there will be a change in sentiment so yes I rally and resonate with those who also sense it.

I wonder if you feel you can no longer hope for a quickish correction because you would risk disappointment ? I wonder if there is some aspect of yourself that feels some resentment at the current stand off ? Perhaps my 'rationalisation ' sparks off a bit of Projection ?

Just teasing .....I actually like your posts and love your avatar :rolleyes:

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Deep resentment ? Not me. In my own simple way I try to intuit trends. I read all the stuff and ask myself what feels right, what we currently have does not feel right , I do sense that there will be a change in sentiment so yes I rally and resonate with those who also sense it.

I wonder if you feel you can no longer hope for a quickish correction because you would risk disappointment ? I wonder if there is some aspect of yourself that feels some resentment at the current stand off ? Perhaps my 'rationalisation ' sparks off a bit of Projection ?

Just teasing .....I actually like your posts and love your avatar :rolleyes:

be careful...he's from Norfolk.

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