Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Barb E Dahl

October 2009 Prediction ...on The Future Of The Housing Market

Recommended Posts

Thanks for your votes!

_____________________________________________

Previously....

September 2009 Vote

75.68% believed prices would go DOWN over the next 12 months

16.22% believed prices would stay the same overall and just 8.11% believed prices would go up.

48.65% believed property sales would INCREASE over the next 12 months

35.14% believed property sales would decrease and 16.22% believed property sales would remain roughly the same.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
September 2009 Vote

75.68% believed prices would go DOWN over the next 12 months

16.22% believed prices would stay the same overall and just 8.11% believed prices would go up.

48.65% believed property sales would INCREASE over the next 12 months

35.14% believed property sales would decrease and 16.22% believed property sales would remain roughly the same.

You're missing a "fluctuate wildly" option for sales!

Oh, and what's this "previous" vote? Thought I read September 2008, which would've had the majority getting it right, but a surprisingly small majority for that time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My best guess is that sales will stay in the same low volume ballpark because:

1. Only people who have to move will be moving, damping sales activity. Lots in fear and many trapped by neg equity.

2. There will be a steady but slowly increasing stream of ever cheaper repossession hitting the market (esp when IRs go up next year) that will stimulate sales

So a flat market and falling prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest UK Debt Slave
Tentative "roughly the same" on prices from me.

I don't expect anything remotely remarkable to happen until the next election is out of the way.

I think house prices will remain nominally where they are, perhaps fall a littl over the winter months

However, the economic pain is only just beginnning

So I expect houses to remain unaffordable for a long time. This is quite understandable given that the scum who run things do not want anyone owning any real asset wealth unless it is cripplingly expensive to service the debt.

The middle class is being wiped out

Students are graduating with 25-30K debts before they've even had their first job.

The cost of the economic collpase will move everyone into new levels of economic misery and debt slavery. Expect crippling taxation to come, more regulation, taxes and red tape for existing homeowners, more infringements of your privacy and civil liberties.

Owning a home is going to become a bureaucratic nightmare for a lot of people, especially if they wish to earn an income from letting. There will be mountains of red tape coming. Your home will have to be inspected to ensure you have the proper energy saving lightbulbs, that the house is properly thermally insulated, that the heating and electrical systems meet prescribed standards and you have those yellow and black chevrons above every doorway in your home with a Max Headroom warning to stop any people over 6'6" bumping their heads.

We're FEKKED folks. Anyone expecting affordable housing in this country anytime soon is delusional

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think house prices will remain nominally where they are, perhaps fall a littl over the winter months

However, the economic pain is only just beginnning

So I expect houses to remain unaffordable for a long time. This is quite understandable given that the scum who run things do not want anyone owning any real asset wealth unless it is cripplingly expensive to service the debt.

The middle class is being wiped out

Students are graduating with 25-30K debts before they've even had their first job.

The cost of the economic collpase will move everyone into new levels of economic misery and debt slavery. Expect crippling taxation to come, more regulation, taxes and red tape for existing homeowners, more infringements of your privacy and civil liberties.

Owning a home is going to become a bureaucratic nightmare for a lot of people, especially if they wish to earn an income from letting. There will be mountains of red tape coming. Your home will have to be inspected to ensure you have the proper energy saving lightbulbs, that the house is properly thermally insulated, that the heating and electrical systems meet prescribed standards and you have those yellow and black chevrons above every doorway in your home with a Max Headroom warning to stop any people over 6'6" bumping their heads.

We're FEKKED folks. Anyone expecting affordable housing in this country anytime soon is delusional

I think you're being overly pessimistic. As you point out, many are stretched to breaking point (and ramming their cars into Tesco) as it is and it'll only take a small increase in interest rates to tip them into all kinds of grief.

Yoof unemployment means that all these amateur landlords hoping to rent to the 'priced out' have no way of upping rents to cover their costs. The Wilsons are right - give it a year to eighteen months.

Whether you'll actually want to buy a place and settle in the UK of 2012 is of course another matter!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Personally I think it'll remain steady on prices and sales volumes for another year. Most people believe that the second leg down in house prices will be due to a a rise in interest rates. Labour won't do this unless forced before the election. The election looks set to be May next year, whoever wins won't have much time before the summer recess to put their policies in place. The earliest that we might see some major decisions made will be in about a years time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Daddy Bear
Thanks for your votes!

REAL TERMS or NOMINAL TERMS ??

You're poll is a waste of time without this clarification.

For what its worth..

Massive increase in Nominal prices over the next 5 years

A Fall in Real Terms reaching its nadir in 5-10 years.

(I did not vote)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

REAL TERMS or NOMINAL TERMS ??

You're poll is a waste of time without this clarification.

For what its worth..

Massive increase in Nominal prices over the next 5 years

A Fall in Real Terms reaching its nadir in 5-10 years.

(I did not vote)

REAL TERMS DUMB @RSE!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Daddy Bear
REAL TERMS DUMB @RSE!

right..... - actually 90% would have assumed you meant nominal terms.

Anyway I think it is a foregone conclusion that virtually everyone on here reckons prices in REAL TERMS will return to (or go below) the long term average in relation to average earnings.

They have to. (most stopped debating this over a year ago).

Out of interest what do you think will happen to house prices in NOMINAL TERMS....

DUMB @RSE

(I presume this is a term of affection?)

edited to add - on reading your posts it has dawned on me you have not really considered the concept of "nominal" and "real term" ....sorry i just assumed you would understand these simple terms....

Edited by Daddy Bear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Daddy Bear
90% of people find it annoying when one just posts a smiley because they cannot think of anything half decent to say.

and....? your view on nominal prices as opposed to real term prices?

(sheesh there was more useful content in my smug face icon)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Daddy Bear
Considering almost 100 people have voted - I find that highly unlikely! :lol:

Sadly for you most have assumed you were talking about nominal prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Daddy Bear
ZZZZZzzzz ...go and find some other thread to play on.

sorry - every month you do this silly poll and every month you get ridiculed.

You change you name frequently from "crimson" to "borden" etc.....

you don't know the difference between nominal and real terms and most of all when this is pointed out politely you are rude.

my advice: read more - post less

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sorry - every month you do this silly poll and every month you get ridiculed.

You change you name frequently from "crimson" to "borden" etc.....

you don't know the difference between nominal and real terms and most of all when this is pointed out politely you are rude.

my advice: read more - post less

Anyone else realise it was a crime to change your name? Geez...*slaps my wrist*

Typical frustrated Bull! What happened? Lose your home?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest The Relaxation Suite

Prices will go down. Sales will increase. FTSE is going to shock a few people before Christmas. Massive demand destruction in United States. QE money struggling to keep economies above water. Expect a lot of deflation before any inflation starts. It's still too early to buy a house IMHO.

If you were a politician trying to get elected, deflation is worse than inflation, but it is a lot better and easier to recover from than hyperinflation.

In sum: I expect more inflation - it always comes in cycles, after all. But first there is a lot of inflationary pressure already in the system and the only way the markets know how to deal with this is to let go of the balloon. Deflation first, then back to inflation. Up and down, in and out.

Edited by D-503

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How many STR's are there out there in the population? 31% of all people on the board seems a lot (though I guess a forum like this will attract a higher number of STR's than in the general population). With all these STR's floating around, with all their cash, surely they will keep the market ticking over for ages. As they get nervous, or start calling the bottom of the drop, they will keep the house prices up. I mean as soon as the STR come back into the market, prices will start to rise again (a sort of mini bubble driven by STRs). What % of the population are STR's?

There is the same issue with FTBs. As soon as they can afford to many will just jump onto the market. Each age group of FTB have been saving for years, so those who would have bought at 20 are being replaced by those who are now at 28 (as they couldn't buy at 20) and so as house prices drop a bit/stabalise they will all start to jump into the market. Again this will stabalise the market even more (and perhaps drive up prices).

Surely only a massive loss of jobs and defaults on loans, resulting in a massive flood of houses onto the market which can absorb all the FTB and the STR, will result in a crash in house prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   289 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.