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Trigger For The Next Downleg?


IMHAL

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HOLA441
A good deposit and credit history. Isn't that the way it should be? Or shall we go back to the crazy days?

First loan I ever took out was for a small motorbike in 1980 (Kawasaki 250). It was via the Yorkshire bank and I had to attend an interview with a senior member of staff before the loan was agreed. 18 month later I went back for a bigger loan, same procedure, but they took into account my circumstances and turned me down. Banking with a personal touch - they were being responsible for the teenage me, on my behalf.

If you had fast forwarded to 2005ish then I'm absolutely sure that the same bank would have been urging me to take out a loan 2 or 3 time bigger (in real terms). The would have been throwing dosh at me, at a price.

To me, that realisation indicates what a fools paradise many of us, and the banks, have been living in for the last 10 years or more.

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HOLA442

What I can't get my head around is why and how could someone on benefits could have got a loan, did they have a disposable income high enough to meet the repayments? Surely that is highly irresponsible lending and would put the borrower into a precarious and unhealthy financial situation... :huh:

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HOLA443
What I can't get my head around is why and how could someone on benefits could have got a loan, did they have a disposable income high enough to meet the repayments? Surely that is highly irresponsible lending and would put the borrower into a precarious and unhealthy financial situation... :huh:

I guess it wouldn't matter to the banks as long as each loan generated a commission and bonus for somebody; a small proportion of the borrowers getting into deep personal s**t would essentially be irrelevant to them.

And the loans/debts could all be packaged up and sold on to generate more funds for more loans, and more commissions and bonuses, etc, etc.

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HOLA444
I guess it wouldn't matter to the banks as long as each loan generated a commission and bonus for somebody; a small proportion of the borrowers getting into deep personal s**t would essentially be irrelevant to them.

And the loans/debts could all be packaged up and sold on to generate more funds for more loans, and more commissions and bonuses, etc, etc.

Where were the FSA when they were needed? :blink:

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HOLA445

to answer the OP

The next downleg is when interest rates start going up.

when will this happen?

when the government need to issue bonds to someone other than the BOE.

i.e. when QE ends, which is not so long to wait :ph34r:

& the BOE chairman talking down the pound discourages foreign bond holders, therefore will force interest rates up even higher. country is doomed.

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HOLA446
to answer the OP

The next downleg is when interest rates start going up.

when will this happen?

when the government need to issue bonds to someone other than the BOE.

i.e. when QE ends, which is not so long to wait :ph34r:

& the BOE chairman talking down the pound discourages foreign bond holders, therefore will force interest rates up even higher. country is doomed.

Its the 'not so long to wait' that is getting under the skin of most I would say. Logically and by any stretch of the imagination we should have had a correction in 2005 - the correction 'should' have bottomed out by now and we 'should' have been in recovery. Instead we have a continuation of the 2007 party with from what I see no sensible rhetoric of getting back to some sort of sanity.

I am guessing that QE can persist for longer than expected mainly because we actually are in a depression - it could easily go for years could it not, especially if everyone is at it. The question is - is Mystic Merv playing a canny game by obliging his NuLabour paymasters and in effect triggering an early IR rises by trashing sterling. I just don't know.

The triggers identified seem far and few inbetween and mostly rely on either the gubmint or the BoE 'doing the right thing' to support the integrity of our fiat money. Both of these from what I have seen seem like wishfull thinking.

Therefore I conclude we are stuffed.

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