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Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Threaten Economic Meltdown

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jerem...nomic-meltdown/

The biggest threat to recovery in the world economy has long seemed to me to be not that of a further leg in the financial crisis or even the fiscal ruination of developed economies, but some kind of geo-political shock, most likely eminating from Iran.

Revelations of a second, covert uranium enrichment facility on Iranian soil bring such a shock that much closer. Let me map out the nightmare scenario. Continued Iranian defiance causes the UN security council to back American led demands for sanctions. But they don’t work, possibly because Russia and or China continue to supply Iran with essential needs.

The failure of sanctions then prompts Israel to take unilateral military action against nuclear facilities in Iran, which in turn causes Iran to go through with its threat to mine Persian waters and attempt to halt the supply of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil sky rockets, tipping the world economy precipitously back into recesssion. Financial markets again panic, leading to a further crash on the stock market and another crisis of confidence in the banks. All the action taken by governments in trying to halt the downward spiral in the economy goes up the swannee. Impausible? Regrettably only too possible.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions have once more made the Middle East into a tinder box. This matters to us in the West not just because of the obvious threat to our own security from nuclear proliferation but because of the region’s vital role in supplying oil to the world.

The lurch into recession a year ago wasn’t exclusively down to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the wider financial crisis. In my view, it was always as much about the spike in oil prices. Shocked by prices at the pumps, American consumers en masse decided to stop spending.

The recovery would be shattered by a further oil price shock of this sort. The effect would be similar to, if not worse than, the Arab oil embargo of 1973. Claims by G20 leaders that thanks to decisive and unprecedented policy action the world has been saved from a second Great Depression would go up in smoke. Worse, there’s nothing left in the fiscal and monetary cannon to deal with any further upsets. It’s already been all used up.

OK, so nightmare scenarios rarely become a reality. I don’t want to frighten the horses, but I wish I could be so confident about this one.

Just think it could be worse.

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Anyone notice how they step up the tension with Iran? Good old Gordon does the right thing by suggesting a reduction from 4 subs to 3 to reduce those nasty nuclear weapons. (Barbaric relics of cold war?) The fact that we cant afford them is spining bad news into good. Looks like they are setting up the media to prepare the sheep for an attack on Iran. We cant have Israel commiting war crimes and now being subject to consequences from Iran with WMD. The history books wont look good if Iran gets to write them.

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Anyone notice how they step up the tension with Iran? Good old Gordon does the right thing by suggesting a reduction from 4 subs to 3 to reduce those nasty nuclear weapons.

yeah right,just as russia and china are vastly scaling up their military hardware.Nice move gordon!!.

That's tellytubby communism for you.Faced with two of the largest and hardest militaries on the planet,our illustrious leader has decieded his new defence policy will be to build a 50 foot high hedge around the entire coastline of the country....on the basis that if we can't see them they can't get us :lol:

I didn't realise that OUR navy is only 1/8 the size it was in the 1970's.

...and our merchant fleet is withered away too.

not good.

Edited by oracle

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yeah right,just as russia and china are vastly scaling up their military hardware.Nice move gordon!!.

That's tellytubby communism for you.Faced with two of the largest and hardest militaries on the planet,our illustrious leader has decieded his new defence policy will be to build a 50 foot high hedge around the entire coastline of the country....on the basis that if we can't see them they can't get us :lol:

I didn't realise that OUR navy is only 1/8 the size it was in the 1970's.

...and our merchant fleet is withered away too.

not good.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/war/ban...d-200909232084/

:lol::lol::lol:

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Its nothing to do with nuclear weapons its to do with nuclear power , seriously , though nuclear weapons are a nice little side effect for Iran.

In that if Iran gets nuclear power it can all of a sudden stop burning millions of barrels of oil and export the stuff instead, with Iran doing a Saddam ie trading oil in Euros instead of USD , this means that the USD will even faster become worthless.

With China spending billions on Iran upgrading its oil refining and petrol processing facilities this means they can export even more oil (to China) again giving yet another death blow to the US$ as demand for dollars vapourises.

And finally if you have nuclear power plants you suddenly have weapons capability to prevent what happened to Saddam happening to you.

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Oh f u c k. Cue Gordon - 'This economic depression ..... (pause for slackjawed air-sucking for effect) which started in Iran'

Edited by RajD

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if Iran ends up with a servicable nuke, and a delivery system, how long before the temptation to push the button becomes

irresistable? About two weeks I imagine.

After all, is it not the will of Allah that the Western oppressors learn to respect and fear the middle-east nations, and

if Allah had not wanted them to let it go, he would not have blessed them with the means to defend themselves.

Israel,( funded, informed and protected by the USA) will not tolerate such an escalating threat, and must surely launch a pre-emptive air strike to

remove such a burgeoning threat. As long as ArmouredDinnerJacket is at the top of the heap, then doing nothing is not really an option.

With Strike, See Spike, as oil leaps to hitherto unseen levels, who knows $250 a barrel..............Unleaded £2 per litre anyone ?

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Its nothing to do with nuclear weapons its to do with nuclear power , seriously , though nuclear weapons are a nice little side effect for Iran.

In that if Iran gets nuclear power it can all of a sudden stop burning millions of barrels of oil and export the stuff instead, with Iran doing a Saddam ie trading oil in Euros instead of USD , this means that the USD will even faster become worthless.

With China spending billions on Iran upgrading its oil refining and petrol processing facilities this means they can export even more oil (to China) again giving yet another death blow to the US$ as demand for dollars vapourises.

And finally if you have nuclear power plants you suddenly have weapons capability to prevent what happened to Saddam happening to you.

The US does have a trump card.

At 5% of the population it consumes about 25% of the worlds oil.

there is A LOT of room for improvement.

A sea change in psychology is needed,and a little incentive to depart from the 5 litre hummers that do 10mpg.

if they were paying our prices for petrol,then they would most certainly be driving more frugally.

and if the mass media would stop pushing the paedo-geddon molesters on every street corner,then paranoid parents kids might actually let their kids WALK to school,cutting fuel consumtion and obesity in one fell swoop.

Edited by oracle

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The US does have a trump card.

At 5% of the population it consumes about 25% of the worlds oil.

there is A LOT of room for improvement.

A sea change in psychology is needed,and a little incentive to depart from the 5 litre hummers that do 10mpg.

if they were paying our prices for petrol,then they would most certainly be driving more frugally.

and if the mass media would stop pushing the paedo-geddon molesters on every street corner,then paranoid parents kids might actually let their kids WALK to school,cutting fuel consumtion and obesity in one fell swoop.

Ah but the American way of life is non negotiable...

But

The cheapo US petrol thing is a bit of a misnomer though , although many do drive extremely poor MPG cars and have things which also mess up MPG (like automatic gear boxes ) , the thing is about the US is that its big , very big and hence an hour commuting on the motorway is perfectly normal to get to work daily. Hence if they have to commute double triple quadruple the distance any cost advantage of petrol , unless say you only go to the shops now and again is lost.

Kind of like when I went across Russia, sure sure the petrol is 21 roubles per litre of 98 Octane petrol which is great , except the distances in Russia especially Siberia are enourmous. I had a chat with a few people in Omsk , who were going to go to the next town , the next big town over was Novosibisk about 1200km away.... The next big town in the UK for me after Manchester is either Liverpool about 40 miles away or Leeds about 60 miles away. Stass the Irkusk leader of the Baikanour drove to Ulan Ude to pick up some bits 340km away.

Hence the Russian expression ,

1000km isn't distance

10 roubles isn't money

40% isn't vodka.

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