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Watt Does This Indicate

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Guest P-Diddly

. . . please switch off the light

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20090924/tuk-u...sb-fa6b408.html

UK's Q2 power consumption down 9.2%

Rather a lot I'd say.

Looking into gas, DECC said total indigenous gas production was down 9.8 percent at 184.1 terawatt hours (TWh). Exports jumped 41.7 percent to 45.5 TWh, while imports stood at 83.1 TWh, up 1.2 percent.

Electricity supply was down 8.1 percent. Supply from nuclear jumped 48.8 percent and from renewables climbed 17.5 percent, but supply from coal plunged 27.5 percent and gas fell 12.3 percent.

Industry's electricity consumption fell 11.6 percent to 24.7 TWh and domestic electricity consumption inched down 4.4 percent o 24.5 TWh, pushing down total final consumption by 7.9 percent.

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. . . please switch off the light

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20090924/tuk-u...sb-fa6b408.html

UK's Q2 power consumption down 9.2%

Rather a lot I'd say.

Looking into gas, DECC said total indigenous gas production was down 9.8 percent at 184.1 terawatt hours (TWh). Exports jumped 41.7 percent to 45.5 TWh, while imports stood at 83.1 TWh, up 1.2 percent.

Electricity supply was down 8.1 percent. Supply from nuclear jumped 48.8 percent and from renewables climbed 17.5 percent, but supply from coal plunged 27.5 percent and gas fell 12.3 percent.

Industry's electricity consumption fell 11.6 percent to 24.7 TWh and domestic electricity consumption inched down 4.4 percent o 24.5 TWh, pushing down total final consumption by 7.9 percent.

:lol:

Recovereh!

IMO this is one of the most telling statistics to date, and shows what bullsh1t the recovery really is.

If industry was working it would need power.

Edited by gleeful_expat

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. . . please switch off the light

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20090924/tuk-u...sb-fa6b408.html

UK's Q2 power consumption down 9.2%

Rather a lot I'd say.

Looking into gas, DECC said total indigenous gas production was down 9.8 percent at 184.1 terawatt hours (TWh). Exports jumped 41.7 percent to 45.5 TWh, while imports stood at 83.1 TWh, up 1.2 percent.

Electricity supply was down 8.1 percent. Supply from nuclear jumped 48.8 percent and from renewables climbed 17.5 percent, but supply from coal plunged 27.5 percent and gas fell 12.3 percent.

Industry's electricity consumption fell 11.6 percent to 24.7 TWh and domestic electricity consumption inched down 4.4 percent o 24.5 TWh, pushing down total final consumption by 7.9 percent.

This indicates power consumption was down 9.2% through the summer...................read more into it if you like, but it was simply because the summer was sh1te. Not warm enough for all the air con not cold enough to fire up the heating.

However, for those of you interested in forward contract prices for leccy and gas the trend line is up, which is why I am sat on two schemes right now and not offering them to the market until we get to the end of next week when I will be forced to ;)

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:lol:

Recovereh!

IMO this is one of the most telling statistics to date, and shows what bullsh1t the recovery really is.

If industry was working it would need power.

Amazing extrapolation of data...............You need to come and work for me............

Was this an extrapolation based on what you know or what you wish it to be?

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Guest UK Debt Slave
That's a large drop - recession?

Wash your mouth out

The 'R' word and the 'D' word have been removed from the common vernacular

It's a 'downturn' don't you know ;)

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Any seasonal evidence. I'd imagine there are large reductions in the use of electricity and gas for lighting and heating during the spring/summer time.

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Guest P-Diddly
Any seasonal evidence. I'd imagine there are large reductions in the use of electricity and gas for lighting and heating during the spring/summer time.

Nah, it's compared to the same period the previous year.

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Guest P-Diddly
Last summer wasn't that warm here either IIRC...

Yeah, I thought you lot hadn't had a decent summer since like 1976?

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Amazing extrapolation of data...............You need to come and work for me............

Was this an extrapolation based on what you know or what you wish it to be?

If you think it's wrong, let's hear your reasons. Always happy to learn something.

Economics isn't a medical experiment, not being able to identify and track everything doesn't make a theory invalid.

Let's consider the possible reasons for industry using 11.6% less power when comparing Q2 2008 to Q2 2009 :

1. Industry is now 11.6% more energy-efficient.

2. Industry has switched to gas/oil for some things previously using electricity and needs 11.6% less electricity.

3. Industry is working less and is using 11.6% less energy.

4. It is a measurement error or a statistical blip.

5. Anything else I haven't thought of.

OK it's a lagging indicator, and energy-hungry sectors will skew the figures, but my money is on 3.

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If you think it's wrong, let's hear your reasons. Always happy to learn something.

Economics isn't a medical experiment, not being able to identify and track everything doesn't make a theory invalid.

Let's consider the possible reasons for industry using 11.6% less power when comparing Q2 2008 to Q2 2009 :

1. Industry is now 11.6% more energy-efficient.

2. Industry has switched to gas/oil for some things previously using electricity and needs 11.6% less electricity.

3. Industry is working less and is using 11.6% less energy.

4. It is a measurement error or a statistical blip.

5. Anything else I haven't thought of.

OK it's a lagging indicator, and energy-hungry sectors will skew the figures, but my money is on 3.

It's more complicated than 'its just a recession oh my god we are fecked' which was the implication from the OP and even my tongue in cheek explanation although hot summers do consume more power. You must remember that we are also an exporter of gas and oil and thus weakened demand elsewhere can have an influence we also export power to our European neighbours.

If you are interested the industry as a whole is anticipating average long term power prices (wholesale) to be around £100.00 per meg, which is 3 times what it is today, we are around £38.50 per meg today but was as low as £35.00 through the summers months, the short term and long term trend is up. The main and simplistic reasons behind this, is dwindling fossil fuel reserves, increasing demand and replacement with much more expensive 'green' technologies, the environment comes at a price ya know.

I will give you todays market on gas as a snapshot........

Gas: Gains seen in Tuesday’s session were consolidated yesterday as further increases were seen across the market. Prompt and near-term contracts ticked up on the back of supply/demand fundamentals; following a 2 week maintenance period, the UK-Zeebrugge Interconnector resumed operations yesterday, exporting gas to the continent and lifting UK demand to 238mcm, above seasonal-norm levels. With increased demand, the supply system was sent short in the afternoon driving up the prompt and near-curve. Day-Ahead added over 2.5p/th whilst the near-curve generally added between 0.5p/th and 1p/th. Further out, gains of around 0.5p/th were seen on seasonal contracts, mimicking activity on the US Henry Hub. This morning, the market has opened lower with S10 and W10 down around 0.5p/th on yesterday’s close

Who'd a thunk it eh? A house price forum and you get all this traders information just goes to show you never know who you are talking to......... ;)

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This indicates power consumption was down 9.2% through the summer...................read more into it if you like, but it was simply because the summer was sh1te. Not warm enough for all the air con not cold enough to fire up the heating.

However, for those of you interested in forward contract prices for leccy and gas the trend line is up, which is why I am sat on two schemes right now and not offering them to the market until we get to the end of next week when I will be forced to ;)

q2 - apr, may, june

q3 jul, aug, sept

q2 is more spring than summer and as i recall we did have a spell of great weather before

q3 turned miserable

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q2 - apr, may, june

q3 jul, aug, sept

q2 is more spring than summer and as i recall we did have a spell of great weather before

q3 turned miserable

For 'industry', the weather makes naff all difference.

For IT, the cooler the weather the less hard air con has to work to cool datacentres, same goes for any refrigeration or even posh offices.

Any other sectors I've missed? Don't think the slightly milder summer is enough to make up that drop...

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It's more complicated than 'its just a recession oh my god we are fecked' which was the implication from the OP and even my tongue in cheek explanation although hot summers do consume more power. You must remember that we are also an exporter of gas and oil and thus weakened demand elsewhere can have an influence we also export power to our European neighbours.

If you are interested the industry as a whole is anticipating average long term power prices (wholesale) to be around £100.00 per meg, which is 3 times what it is today, we are around £38.50 per meg today but was as low as £35.00 through the summers months, the short term and long term trend is up. The main and simplistic reasons behind this, is dwindling fossil fuel reserves, increasing demand and replacement with much more expensive 'green' technologies, the environment comes at a price ya know.

I will give you todays market on gas as a snapshot........

Gas: Gains seen in Tuesday’s session were consolidated yesterday as further increases were seen across the market. Prompt and near-term contracts ticked up on the back of supply/demand fundamentals; following a 2 week maintenance period, the UK-Zeebrugge Interconnector resumed operations yesterday, exporting gas to the continent and lifting UK demand to 238mcm, above seasonal-norm levels. With increased demand, the supply system was sent short in the afternoon driving up the prompt and near-curve. Day-Ahead added over 2.5p/th whilst the near-curve generally added between 0.5p/th and 1p/th. Further out, gains of around 0.5p/th were seen on seasonal contracts, mimicking activity on the US Henry Hub. This morning, the market has opened lower with S10 and W10 down around 0.5p/th on yesterday’s close

Who'd a thunk it eh? A house price forum and you get all this traders information just goes to show you never know who you are talking to......... ;)

Well yes, that is interesting. In particular the anticipated longterm prices, though that isn't a great surprise to me, hence my plans for a semi-autonomous house, I'm more of a pragmatist than a greenie. It'll make driving a car a bit pricey though. :rolleyes:

The minutiae of the short term gas trading market is of interest to traders only I would think.

However I don't see how you've disproved anything I wrote. Industry using 11.6% less electricty is a very strong sign that industry is working a lot less than the same quarter in 2008. The price is relevant, sure, but it's consumption that's being discussed here.

From this I extrapolated that the recovery is mainly QE and borrowing, and that without this the GDP figures for the UK would reflect the electricity consumption figures more closely, as they do in some other countries. Simplistic, perhaps, maybe wrong if there are other points I haven't thought of, but definitely not just wishful thinking.

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Amazing extrapolation of data...............You need to come and work for me............

Was this an extrapolation based on what you know or what you wish it to be?

If it's alright for Albert Edwards, it's alright for me....

Besides, industrial energy usage is a pretty clear economic indicator isn't it? (esp as the falling pound is supposed to boost exports, I would have thought those machines would be firing up again compared with similar period in 2008, if all this "UK rebalancing its economy" stuff is to be believed....)

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Guest P-Diddly
If it's alright for Albert Edwards, it's alright for me....

Besides, industrial energy usage is a pretty clear economic indicator isn't it? (esp as the falling pound is supposed to boost exports, I would have thought those machines would be firing up again compared with similar period in 2008, if all this "UK rebalancing its economy" stuff is to be believed....)

Speaking of which . . . has anyone had a look? $1.60 about 10 mins ago.

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If you think it's wrong, let's hear your reasons. Always happy to learn something.

Economics isn't a medical experiment, not being able to identify and track everything doesn't make a theory invalid.

Let's consider the possible reasons for industry using 11.6% less power when comparing Q2 2008 to Q2 2009 :

1. Industry is now 11.6% more energy-efficient.

2. Industry has switched to gas/oil for some things previously using electricity and needs 11.6% less electricity.

3. Industry is working less and is using 11.6% less energy.

4. It is a measurement error or a statistical blip.

5. Anything else I haven't thought of.

OK it's a lagging indicator, and energy-hungry sectors will skew the figures, but my money is on 3.

Is there no way in this black-and-white world it could in fact be a mixture of all 5 reasons? Or does it have to be one and one only?

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Yeah, I thought you lot hadn't had a decent summer since like 1976?

Well, here in our part of God's own county we have giant heaters the size of football pitches floating in the sky to make sure that the outdoor swimming pools really do add the value to our houses that we want them to.

Oooh, maybe they got turned off this summer. Esher hasn't even got the money for Xmas lights this year. :lol:

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Guest P-Diddly
Well, here in our part of God's own county we have giant heaters the size of football pitches floating in the sky to make sure that the outdoor swimming pools really do add the value to our houses that we want them to.

Oooh, maybe they got turned off this summer. Esher hasn't even got the money for Xmas lights this year. :lol:

Wot? :blink:

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Wot? :blink:

Oh it has been in all the local papers. They are trying to find the 10k to put up the Xmas lights in Esher.

You would think it was small potatoes for the posh folks round here.

Won't anybody think of the children? :(

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What's all this bo!!ox about air conditioning?

In the UK?

WTF???

yeah!!! Every house has air conditioning now, all installed by the Government to improve our air quality. Its nice and comfy now and no one has any problems anymore and were all really happy!!! Its great, i cant believe you survive without your air conditioning.

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Guest P-Diddly
yeah!!! Every house has air conditioning now, all installed by the Government to improve our air quality. Its nice and comfy now and no one has any problems anymore and were all really happy!!! Its great, i cant believe you survive without your air conditioning.

Air-con makes me ill. After about 3 weeks you no longer suffer with the heat. Damn cold today, about 30C.

Only need floor fans and high ceilings. Electric bill still about £12-£15 a month.

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