CountryMove Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 (edited) Sorry if this has been posted, couldn't see it. Didn't mortgage approvals rise though? Could cash be starting to make up less of the market for now? Edit - no they didn't sorry am mixing up my months/statistics! Interesting anyway... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8268440.stm Edited September 22, 2009 by welsh1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrpleasant Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 (edited) 'Stalled' or 'Fell'? 87,000 to 83,000. That would be 'Fell', then. Edited September 22, 2009 by mrpleasant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drrayjo Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 'Stalled' or 'Fell'? 87,000 to 83,000. That would be 'Fell', then. The assumed recovery to the 'natural' state of things (rising sales ergo prices as we "return to normal") has stalled, and that's confusing the not-entirely-impartial BBC. Nowt as blind as them that can't see that the boom wasn't normal and neither is the fake recovery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 I've just posted the updated graph on the charts thread. SA August 2009 is provisionally 74K. July was revised up from 76K to 80K. August last year was 62K, but we're still roughly 50% down on August 2007. I'd regard this as noise until we see a couple more months. The data are subject to significant revision. Data: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_prop/menu.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Is this bad news for the jobless recovery? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountryMove Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Is this bad news for the jobless recovery? It's great news! Fewer houses selling = more pent up demand = less supply = higher prices = recovery = more houses selling = higher prices = higher demand = I've gone cross-eyed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8268440.stm "House sales had been rising steadily this year, with the property market reviving from the sudden slump triggered by the credit crunch in 2007. " Looking at Freetrader's chart I can't see the revival but yes the data does look noisey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadman Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Is this bad news for the jobless recovery? No this is the historically low house sales recovereh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 any chance you have a chart showing both prices and transactions levels? Quick version, but I'm not sure it's a particularly meaningful chart as the data series is so short. It's also subjective in how you scale the axes. Average house price is the Halifax seasonally-adjusted series. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Cavey Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Again with the subtle “HPI-is-good†spin on the picture - usually they use an image with a sea of estate agents boards,… and the caption is very on-message. The property market has undergone a revival so far this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wallah Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Speaking of BBC presentation bias, this is from intro of smarmy rampfest prog this morning: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00fv...Episode_2/?t=1s "Despite all the doom and gloom in the news, the property market IS still a good place to invest your money.........." That's us told then!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Sorry if this has been posted, couldn't see it.Didn't mortgage approvals rise though? Could cash be starting to make up less of the market for now? Edit - no they didn't sorry am mixing up my months/statistics! Interesting anyway... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8268440.stm Figures from HMRC show that 83,000 homes were sold last month, down from 87,000 in July. So is that over 50% bought cash ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ManorHouseOwner Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 5% drop is 'stalling' is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikthe20 Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 5% drop is 'stalling' is it? Yes, and a 5% increase is known as a "surge". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Nowt as blind as them that can't see that the boom wasn't normal and neither is the fake recovery. ..for real... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest absolutezero Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Quick version, but I'm not sure it's a particularly meaningful chart as the data series is so short. It's also subjective in how you scale the axes.Average house price is the Halifax seasonally-adjusted series. Quite a decent correlation there. And transactions lead the prices. Let's hope for less volume! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 christmas day had a seasonally adjusted temperature of 22C Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Interestingly, HMRC have revised the July figures up substantially (they collate by completion date, so will under-count to some extent on recent months, although they did revise June down slightly) Month NSA SA June 74(75) 64(65) July 87(82) 80(76) August 83 74 with previous figures in brackets(). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Interestingly, HMRC have revised the July figures up substantially (they collate by completion date, so will under-count to some extent on recent months, although they did revise June down slightly)Month NSA SA June 74(75) 64(65) July 87(82) 80(76) August 83 74 with previous figures in brackets(). just to be sure, if things arent increasing or decreasing, then the SA figures should be the same from month to month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 (edited) just to be sure, if things arent increasing or decreasing, then the SA figures should be the same from month to month? Broadly yes, the SA aims to take out the seasonal variation ... but given that the last two years have had smaller than usual seasonal variation (‘capped’ by mortgage availability rather than following normal seasonal demand) the current SA may be slightly underestimated; however, August is usually SA corrected down by about 10-11% and the current SA looks to be about the same. The largest source of noise seems to be monthly volatility/counting. Anyway, these are completions, and will lag the approvals by a month or so. Early indications on the August approvals is up 7% MoM, BoE Trends in Lending, with the BBA and full BoE to follow in next two weeks. Edited September 22, 2009 by spline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairies Wear Boots Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Quite a decent correlation there.And transactions lead the prices. Let's hope for less volume! Does it have to follow? I can see that in the data, but if the uptick in sales were because of more repos, which might happen in future, more sales could equate to lower prices perhaps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the flying pig Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 here's a quote from an EA in 2008. ...As an Estate Agent i wish that Gordon Brown would phone me to ask how things are on the 'front line'. In essence there is no market at the moment. I cut my teeth on the last recession and the property market now, is easily worse than in the early 90's... LINKthat was in may 2008, when sales were, um, at exactly the same volume they are now [see the chart]. only with higher prices. the industry has just decided, for whatever reason, that making bullish noises is the way to go, even as dozens upon dozens of branches close down every week... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Is this bad news for the jobless recovery? The jobless recovereh is all good news. Vive la recouvereh joblesse! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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