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House Sales "stalled In August"

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'Stalled' or 'Fell'? 87,000 to 83,000. That would be 'Fell', then.

The assumed recovery to the 'natural' state of things (rising sales ergo prices as we "return to normal") has stalled, and that's confusing the not-entirely-impartial BBC.

Nowt as blind as them that can't see that the boom wasn't normal and neither is the fake recovery.

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I've just posted the updated graph on the charts thread.

SA August 2009 is provisionally 74K. July was revised up from 76K to 80K. August last year was 62K, but we're still roughly 50% down on August 2007.

I'd regard this as noise until we see a couple more months. The data are subject to significant revision.

hmrctrans0809.gif

Data: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_prop/menu.htm

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Is this bad news for the jobless recovery?

It's great news!

Fewer houses selling = more pent up demand = less supply = higher prices = recovery = more houses selling = higher prices = higher demand =

I've gone cross-eyed :blink:

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any chance you have a chart showing both prices and transactions levels?

Quick version, but I'm not sure it's a particularly meaningful chart as the data series is so short. It's also subjective in how you scale the axes.

Average house price is the Halifax seasonally-adjusted series.

pricevtrans0809.gif

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Again with the subtle “HPI-is-good†spin on the picture - usually they use an image with a sea of estate agents boards,… and the caption is very on-message.

_46420353_007802975-1.jpg

The property market has undergone a revival so far this year

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Sorry if this has been posted, couldn't see it.

Didn't mortgage approvals rise though? Could cash be starting to make up less of the market for now?

Edit - no they didn't sorry am mixing up my months/statistics!

Interesting anyway...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8268440.stm

Figures from HMRC show that 83,000 homes were sold last month, down from 87,000 in July.

So is that over 50% bought cash ?

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Nowt as blind as them that can't see that the boom wasn't normal and neither is the fake recovery.

..for real...

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Guest absolutezero
Quick version, but I'm not sure it's a particularly meaningful chart as the data series is so short. It's also subjective in how you scale the axes.

Average house price is the Halifax seasonally-adjusted series.

pricevtrans0809.gif

Quite a decent correlation there.

And transactions lead the prices. Let's hope for less volume!

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Interestingly, HMRC have revised the July figures up substantially (they collate by completion date, so will under-count to some extent on recent months, although they did revise June down slightly)

Month NSA SA

June 74(75) 64(65)

July 87(82) 80(76)

August 83 74

with previous figures in brackets().

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Interestingly, HMRC have revised the July figures up substantially (they collate by completion date, so will under-count to some extent on recent months, although they did revise June down slightly)

Month NSA SA

June 74(75) 64(65)

July 87(82) 80(76)

August 83 74

with previous figures in brackets().

just to be sure, if things arent increasing or decreasing, then the SA figures should be the same from month to month?

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just to be sure, if things arent increasing or decreasing, then the SA figures should be the same from month to month?

Broadly yes, the SA aims to take out the seasonal variation ... but given that the last two years have had smaller than usual seasonal variation (‘capped’ by mortgage availability rather than following normal seasonal demand) the current SA may be slightly underestimated; however, August is usually SA corrected down by about 10-11% and the current SA looks to be about the same.

The largest source of noise seems to be monthly volatility/counting.

Anyway, these are completions, and will lag the approvals by a month or so. Early indications on the August approvals is up 7% MoM, BoE Trends in Lending, with the BBA and full BoE to follow in next two weeks.

Edited by spline

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Quite a decent correlation there.

And transactions lead the prices. Let's hope for less volume!

Does it have to follow? I can see that in the data, but if the uptick in sales were because of more repos, which might happen in future, more sales could equate to lower prices perhaps?

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here's a quote from an EA in 2008.

...As an Estate Agent i wish that Gordon Brown would phone me to ask how things are on the 'front line'. In essence there is no market at the moment. I cut my teeth on the last recession and the property market now, is easily worse than in the early 90's...
LINK

that was in may 2008, when sales were, um, at exactly the same volume they are now [see the chart]. only with higher prices. the industry has just decided, for whatever reason, that making bullish noises is the way to go, even as dozens upon dozens of branches close down every week...

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Is this bad news for the jobless recovery?

The jobless recovereh is all good news.

Vive la recouvereh joblesse!

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