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Trampa501

Bulls Who Have Gone Bear

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I was actually more optimistic 6 months ago. I thought a modest easing of prices would lead to an increase in sales, and that the jobs figures would soon improve as our flexible workforce used the various opportunities offered by technology and the net to start up new ventures. Plus, the inevitable fall in the pound would help our exports.

I was wrong. The jobless figures are going to go ever higher, especially once the government cutbacks start (remember a lot of private business relies on government contracts). House prices were kept high over the summer by ramping techniques, so now they have further to fall. Additionally we're not benefiting as much as we'd like from a lower pound as demand for our products isn't going to be strong enough. But the main reason for my pessimism is the fear factor. People who fear for their jobs, next years pay rises, their pension etc will stop spending and try and save as much as possible. Who can blame them?

I never described myself as a bull, and chose the "neither" status here; however I'm now describing myself as a bear.

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I was actually more optimistic 6 months ago. I thought a modest easing of prices would lead to an increase in sales, and that the jobs figures would soon improve as our flexible workforce used the various opportunities offered by technology and the net to start up new ventures. Plus, the inevitable fall in the pound would help our exports.

I was wrong. The jobless figures are going to go ever higher, especially once the government cutbacks start (remember a lot of private business relies on government contracts). House prices were kept high over the summer by ramping techniques, so now they have further to fall. Additionally we're not benefiting as much as we'd like from a lower pound as demand for our products isn't going to be strong enough. But the main reason for my pessimism is the fear factor. People who fear for their jobs, next years pay rises, their pension etc will stop spending and try and save as much as possible. Who can blame them?

I never described myself as a bull, and chose the "neither" status here; however I'm now describing myself as a bear.

Welcome to the cool gang. ;)

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I understand from some post on here that the State now accounts for 50% of the economy.

Is the chancellor not looking into a few cuts here and there? Mr Balls was the first on message with his £2Bn worth of cuts (with indeacent haste). More will follow. The Torys and LibDems are trying to out tough each other. What is going to happen with all that Dosh being removed from the economy?

In the light of that along with: VAT coming back at 20%??,Stamp duty at the 125k point, the removal of help for struggling home owners (will go with cuts), interest rate rises (yes they will), and the end of car scrappage (yes, tenuous I know)...It is difficult to think bullish.

As far as QE and inflation is concerned, can they get away with printing more money than has been destroyed? I think no.

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I want to to go on official record that I think bulls are psychologically flawed.

There's so much stacked against them that it's harder to be a bull than a bear nowadays.

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