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Help! Will House Prices Fall Further


souljahslim

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HOLA441

No such thing as a balanced view on here. Almost everyone either:

(1) signed up to the site because they want and/or believe that house prices will fall [i'm in both of these camps as are most others]; or

(2) signed up the site because they are scared about house prices falling since this would have a negative financial impact on them & they therefore want to make as much bullish noise as possible.

The closest that I could get to a balanced line might be along the lines of:

There's a good chance that house prices will fall. this is because prices are so high relative to earnings, with unemployment high and rising. the best 'hope' for stable or rising house prices is probably high inflation, and there must be a reasonable likelihood of this.

Taking everything into account I would probably say a neutral view is maybe:

"If you were thinking of buying with a very high LTV, don't bother. There's an appallingly high risk that you'll be left stuck in negative equity. If, though, you have a lot of cash squirrelled away & are worried about seeing it eroded by inflation, you could probably do worst than use it to buy a large slice of a house. In both cases the price is key - if you can get a nice juicy cut of over 20% from peak then you should maybe think about it regardless, if you're on the verge of paying something close to peak [or, heaven forbid, higher] then you really ought to considre pulling out".

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HOLA442
No such thing as a balanced view on here. Almost everyone either:

(1) signed up to the site because they want and/or believe that house prices will fall [i'm in both of these camps as are most others]; or

(2) signed up the site because they are scared about house prices falling since this would have a negative financial impact on them & they therefore want to make as much bullish noise as possible.

The closest that I could get to a balanced line might be along the lines of:

There's a good chance that house prices will fall. this is because prices are so high relative to earnings, with unemployment high and rising. the best 'hope' for stable or rising house prices is probably high inflation, and there must be a reasonable likelihood of this.

Taking everything into account I would probably say a neutral view is maybe:

"If you were thinking of buying with a very high LTV, don't bother. There's an appallingly high risk that you'll be left stuck in negative equity. If, though, you have a lot of cash squirrelled away & are worried about seeing it eroded by inflation, you could probably do worst than use it to buy a large slice of a house. In both cases the price is key - if you can get a nice juicy cut of over 20% from peak then you should maybe think about it regardless, if you're on the verge of paying something close to peak [or, heaven forbid, higher] then you really ought to considre pulling out".

+1

Although I am more on the side that they WILL fall.

However, if you are getting a bargain price then why not, atleast they will have to fall more before you take a bath

Much depends on the scarcity of the property itself, how often do they come up with the features this one has? namely location? If there is plenty, give the sellers a low offer

I own my house outright and am looking to buy one simply because although I believe they will fall, so will the one I am in and the difference is small.

If I was in cash I would hold on for atleast a year.

There is a lot of bad news to come, this sustained rise is enough to keep people believing this slump is over.....it isn't.

A lot of banks being less flexible in the future and it is likely to become even more of a buyers market

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HOLA444
HI,

I am in the process of purchasing a house.

However after further research I have learnt via a number of oppinions that house will fall further in lead to the general election and after next year.

what I want to know is should I pull out and wait a bit longer ie 1 year.. (I am a first time buyer ) or should I continue with the purchase of the house which is in the East midlands as prices will not fall any further and if they do the fall will be minimal.

Your oppinion would be greatly appreciated.

thanks in advance

Kind Regards,

Personally I am adamant that we are coming out of a bull trap and hence the real crash is just around the corner now. Even though prices are currently going up and the property market has shown great promise over the past couple of months, I am still adamant that things will turn ugly in the coming winter months.

Your circumstances are your own and hence no-one on this forum is in a position to tell you what to do for the best. I know in certain circumstances whether house prices will crash or not, it will still be better financially and in the long term to purchase a property now.

My friend was desperate to start up her own business and having her own property was vital to her setting it up. There were no alternatives, if she wanted to pursue her dream and despite buying at the top of the market, she has made the right choice because her turnover has exceeded her goals. She already owns the house outright, so house prices do not affect her in the slightest now.

The key is to look towards the future, what if you could buy a house double the size of this one at the same price in 12 months time, how will you feel? Will you comfortably live in this property for many years to come knowing as long as it meets your criteria then the money side of things do not matter? Or will you begin to hate the house, knowing you have made the biggest financial mistake of your life and possibly even ruined the future you could of had, should you have waited?

Hope this helps a little. It's your choice - be brave and good luck.

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HOLA445
or should I continue with the purchase of the house which is in the East midlands as prices will not fall any further and if they do the fall will be minimal.

Is that what EA told you? Amazing how they can still brainwash people! but, if this is not what you were told and it is your personal opinion, then you should walk away from this purchase until you learn the fundamentals of the market.

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HOLA447
HI,

I am in the process of purchasing a house.

However after further research I have learnt via a number of oppinions that house will fall further in lead to the general election and after next year.

what I want to know is should I pull out and wait a bit longer ie 1 year.. (I am a first time buyer ) or should I continue with the purchase of the house which is in the East midlands as prices will not fall any further and if they do the fall will be minimal.

Your oppinion would be greatly appreciated.

thanks in advance

Kind Regards,

IMO, yes. Probably about 5% this year. Next year I'm not so sure, my head is saying the absolutely must fall at least another 10% (probably more south of Watford), just because they are still way out of kilter with wages. If we see positive HPI from now to 2011, I'll eat my hat. (prepare the BBQ sauce ;))

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HOLA448
Personally I am adamant that we are coming out of a bull trap and hence the real crash is just around the corner now. Even though prices are currently going up and the property market has shown great promise over the past couple of months, I am still adamant that things will turn ugly in the coming winter months.

Your circumstances are your own and hence no-one on this forum is in a position to tell you what to do for the best. I know in certain circumstances whether house prices will crash or not, it will still be better financially and in the long term to purchase a property now.

My friend was desperate to start up her own business and having her own property was vital to her setting it up. There were no alternatives, if she wanted to pursue her dream and despite buying at the top of the market, she has made the right choice because her turnover has exceeded her goals. She already owns the house outright, so house prices do not affect her in the slightest now.

The key is to look towards the future, what if you could buy a house double the size of this one at the same price in 12 months time, how will you feel? Will you comfortably live in this property for many years to come knowing as long as it meets your criteria then the money side of things do not matter? Or will you begin to hate the house, knowing you have made the biggest financial mistake of your life and possibly even ruined the future you could of had, should you have waited?

Hope this helps a little. It's your choice - be brave and good luck.

+1 ... it is all about where you are and your life situation. If you are looking at buying a small (if lovely) flat and think a family might be on the way in the next 2 - 5 years ... then I would step back from the brink fast ... but if the house is going to work for what you could conceive as where life is going .. and you can afford it (expect the interest rates to rise tho!) ... then getting on with your life is hugely valuable.

You can't take it (money) with you ... but FTBers can get soooo badly trapped right now.

Aidanapword

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HOLA449

1) There is nothing (except hot air) to support prices being three times or so what they were pre the credit binge.

2) The UK economy is in far far worse shape than it was pre credit binge & it can only get worse.

Print those two facts indelibly in your brain & act accordingly.

All else is designed to fool you, & line others pockets.

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HOLA4412

i recon London might fall 20% but the East Midlands will probably only fall 5%, because:

people will only sell there house for peanuts if they NEED to sell. otherwise they will just sit there starring at the for sale sign for the next 5 years. they would rather take there property off the market than sell it for peanuts.

we would need to see some proper unemployment in the East Midlands before prices fall, and even then it will only be the repo's that will sell the rest of the overpriced stock will just sit there starring at there for sale signs.

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HOLA4415
what I want to know is should I pull out and wait a bit longer ie 1 year.. (I am a first time buyer ) or should I continue with the purchase of the house which is in the East midlands as prices will not fall any further and if they do the fall will be minimal.
And this declaration of fact is based upon...??

The fact you even wrote that tells me you have absolutely no clue as to what is going on with the housing market, the wider economy and what this whole "credit crunch", "global recession" thing is all about or what caused it.

Is that what EA told you? Amazing how they can still brainwash people! but, if this is not what you were told and it is your personal opinion, then you should walk away from this purchase until you learn the fundamentals of the market.

I think the OP's writing style has mislead you - I read it as

"should I pull out and wait a bit longer eg 1 year or is it likely that prices will not fall any further (or just minimal falls) in which case should I continue with the purchase of the house"

I'm disappointed by the rude or comedy responses - this person had sufficient respect in the members of this site to ask our opinion on a key life decision. It's not much repayment to the compliment to be glib.

Unfortunately my only view would be that house prices as a multiple of earnings will fall. Whether that means house prices fall 50% and earnings 20%, or houses increase 20% and earnings increase 50% I really don't know. Is it 1933 or 1973?

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HOLA4416
HI,

I am in the process of purchasing a house.

However after further research I have learnt via a number of oppinions that house will fall further in lead to the general election and after next year.

what I want to know is should I pull out and wait a bit longer ie 1 year.. (I am a first time buyer ) or should I continue with the purchase of the house which is in the East midlands as prices will not fall any further and if they do the fall will be minimal.

Your oppinion would be greatly appreciated.

thanks in advance

Kind Regards,

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8253331.stm

"The TUC has published a report analysing the effects of possible public spending cuts on the 25 local authorities with the highest levels of unemployment.

It suggests that areas such as Liverpool, Leicester and Middlesbrough would suffer increases in unemployment of around 40%.

The report also warns that a 10% cut in public sector staff would lead to 700,000 workers being laid off."

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HOLA4417
Guest Steve Cook
HI,

I am in the process of purchasing a house.

However after further research I have learnt via a number of oppinions that house will fall further in lead to the general election and after next year.

what I want to know is should I pull out and wait a bit longer ie 1 year.. (I am a first time buyer ) or should I continue with the purchase of the house which is in the East midlands as prices will not fall any further and if they do the fall will be minimal.

Your oppinion would be greatly appreciated.

thanks in advance

Kind Regards,

If the debt will be large and you cannot afford it to go down in value, no

If the debt will be small and you are not bothered if it goes down in value, yes

Edited by Steve Cook
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HOLA4419

i think his biggest problem is not so much wether to buy, but rather availability. theres like 40% the market activity, apparently, which means theres 60% less choice than in regular times. In practice, for me, this means even if i decided to pull the trigger, there isnt nesseccarily a house out there to buy. people are sitting on their assets.

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HOLA4420
HI,

I am in the process of purchasing a house.

However after further research I have learnt via a number of oppinions that house will fall further in lead to the general election and after next year.

what I want to know is should I pull out and wait a bit longer ie 1 year.. (I am a first time buyer ) or should I continue with the purchase of the house which is in the East midlands as prices will not fall any further and if they do the fall will be minimal.

Your oppinion would be greatly appreciated.

thanks in advance

Kind Regards,

The East Midlands is a vast area - can you tell us the postcode or the town?

Have you been running PropertyBee [ www.property-bee.com ] for the area your buying in?

Are you buying for cash or with a deposit plus mortgage?

How safe is your job?

Are you buying 100% of the property eg: not some part share?

Are you buying to live in the property or is this an investment like buy-to-let ?

Edited by HouseDog
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HOLA4421

Do yourself a favour and read up on ALT-A and Option ARM resets, mortgage backed securities (MBS), credit default swaps (CDS), reverse leverage, fractional reserve banking, bonds/guilts and everything you might find on the way. - My advice don't buy.

HI,

I am in the process of purchasing a house.

However after further research I have learnt via a number of oppinions that house will fall further in lead to the general election and after next year.

what I want to know is should I pull out and wait a bit longer ie 1 year.. (I am a first time buyer ) or should I continue with the purchase of the house which is in the East midlands as prices will not fall any further and if they do the fall will be minimal.

Your oppinion would be greatly appreciated.

thanks in advance

Kind Regards,

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HOLA4422
.........../....... which means theres 60% less choice than in regular times. In practice, for me, this means even if i decided to pull the trigger, there isnt nesseccarily a house out there to buy. people are sitting on their assets.

:P Sitting on their DIMINISHING assets --- "assets" which were pumped up big time by the world's most massive fraud, a pyramid/ponzi scam, fuelled by mortgage fraud/liar loans -- themselves fuelled by SIVS, CDO's, etc. etc. -- and thus fictitious. Fake. Unreal. A fraud.

And thus - these "assets" will, inevitably, diminish to what they are REALLY worth in the REAL world....

And that is a HUGE, COLOSSAL amount LESS than they thought.

Edited by eric pebble
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HOLA4425

what I want to know is should I pull out and wait a bit longer ie 1 year.. (I am a first time buyer ) or should I continue with the purchase of the house which is in the East midlands as prices will not fall any further and if they do the fall will be minimal.

Whoever told you that 'prices will not fall any further and if they do the fall will be minimal' should be regarded as a fool or a spinner of falsehood. How does she or he know? All the factors are in place for major falls, slow maybe, but major.
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