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Bears Who Have Turned Bull...

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Guest Daddy Bear

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I turned Bull in Feb 2009 after being very bearish on housing since July 2005.

I am bullish on UK housing Long term in NOMINAL TERMS ONLY - but also bullish on housing in the short term in REAL TERMS.

I am BEARISH on housing Long term in REAL TERMS (Price vs Wages), but think it will take 5 -10 years for equilibrium to be reached.

This is all due to my expectation of Massive inflation (currency collapse) in the not too distant future.

In my opinion we are in the early stages of a crack up boom.

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PT-AM520_Cover__F_20090918183107.jpg

I turned Bull in Feb 2009 after being very bearish on housing since July 2005.

I am bullish on UK housing Long term in NOMINAL TERMS ONLY - but also bullish on housing in the short term in REAL TERMS.

I am BEARISH on housing Long term in REAL TERMS (Price vs Wages), but think it will take 5 -10 years for equilibrium to be reached.

This is all due to my expectation of Massive inflation (currency collapse) in the not too distant future.

In my opinion we are in the early stages of a crack up boom.

I tend to agree. We will see real falls in value, which after time might even be coupled with the facility to erode debt as the jobs market picks up (a while to go yet though).

The nominal falls may wlle have stopped, or perhaps another 8-10% to go. But the biggest falls will be real and long term.

Edited by mikelivingstone

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Guest Daddy Bear
I tend to agree. We will see real falls in value, which after time might even br coupled with the facility to erode debt as the jobs market picks up (a while to go yet though).

I think the nominal falls may we have stopped, or perhaps another 8-10% to go. But the biggest falls will be real and long term.

ONG ! You are a Heretic - bring him to the stake...

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I hesitantly describe my current status as temporary bull. I think the recovery will continue for a while but the rug is being pulled, with the prospect of interest rates going up and a great big mass profit-take looming in stock markets. As soon as the clever investors perceive that the booming stock markets are running out of steam, they'll sell en masse.

Edited by blankster

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Guest happy?
PT-AM520_Cover__F_20090918183107.jpg

I turned Bull in Feb 2009 after being very bearish on housing since July 2005.

I am bullish on UK housing Long term in NOMINAL TERMS ONLY - but also bullish on housing in the short term in REAL TERMS.

I am BEARISH on housing Long term in REAL TERMS (Price vs Wages), but think it will take 5 -10 years for equilibrium to be reached.

This is all due to my expectation of Massive inflation (currency collapse) in the not too distant future.

In my opinion we are in the early stages of a crack up boom.

That's a lovely avatar.

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Guest Daddy Bear
That's a lovely avatar.

why thankyou - I thought it was time I revealed the real me.....

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How will the Global Economy play out 2005 onwards?

1. Global Housing Market Bubble Bursts

2. Global Bank Lending Implodes

3. Global Economy Begins to Contract

4. Global Banks begin to Fail

5. Global Unemployment Soars

6. Global Banks are Nationalised

7. Global Interest Rates are Lowered Dramatically to 0%

8. Global Quantitative Easing will be carried out on a Massive Scale

9. Global Dash For Assets

10. Global (Inflationary) Default on Debt - (Bond Market Collapse)

11. Global Hyperinflation

12. Global New Currencies introduced

13. Global Political Unrest & Change

I'm curious. When exactly did you first publish that timeline?

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Guest Daddy Bear
Daddy Bear

Have you moved from stage 8 to stage 9 on your timetable?

When do you think we'll get to stage 10?

Watch the dollar and £ - every % they decline is the continuation of the inflationary default on debt.

Bond Markets won't take it the end.

A tipping point will be reached - they will demand greater and greater yield.

World banks cannot put up IR's

World banks will have to print more and more money to "buy their own bonds as there will be no buyers"

Viscious feedback loop

HYPERINFLATION HERE WE COME....

I fully expect the markets to see this before it actually happens - a tipping point will come - a self fulfilling prophecy.

Good Night.

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Watch the dollar and £ - every % they decline is the continuation of the inflationary default on debt.

Bond Markets won't take it the end.

A tipping point will be reached - they will demand greater and greater yield.

World banks cannot put up IR's

World banks will have to print more and more money to "buy their own bonds as there will be no buyers"

Viscious feedback loop

HYPERINFLATION HERE WE COME....

I fully expect the markets to see this before it actually happens - a tipping point will come - a self fulfilling prophecy.

Good Night.

It will be a "real" house price crash.

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Watch the dollar and £ - every % they decline is the continuation of the inflationary default on debt.

Bond Markets won't take it the end.

A tipping point will be reached - they will demand greater and greater yield.

World banks cannot put up IR's

World banks will have to print more and more money to "buy their own bonds as there will be no buyers"

Viscious feedback loop

HYPERINFLATION HERE WE COME....

I fully expect the markets to see this before it actually happens - a tipping point will come - a self fulfilling prophecy.

Good Night.

If I was certain that high inflation was round the corner then I'd buy a house/take on debt/dash for assets/etc. i.e. anything to get out of cash.

However if I was certain that hyperinflation was round the corner then buying a house in the UK is the last thing I'd do. OK the mortgage would be wiped out, but so would the value of the house. The whole economy would collapse. Instead I'd buy foreign currency/gold/etc. i.e. anything to get out of the UK.

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I never got to be a bull :(

After 20% house price falls through 2008 I started to see a day I too might be a bull but sadly with the foundations of this 'recovery' built on sand I've just gone from bearish to uber-bearish and that day has been taken from me...

Edited by munimula

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Left Uni in 01

Didnt have the age/head to buy a property on my own at the time

Looked at property in spring 2004 after a pay raise and decided not to buy

Joined HPC in 2004 as a bear

The midlands saw a mini property crash from 2004-2005

Was neither in 2006

Turned Bull in 2006, and bought a house (with a big discount) at the end of the year

Turned Bear in 2007/8

Turned Bull in 2009

Bear->Neither->Bull->Bear->Bull

Edited by moosetea

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Joined HPC in 2004 as a bear

Was neither in 2006

Turned Bull in 2006, and bought a house (with a big discount) at the end of the year

Turned Bear in 2007/8

Turned Bull in 2009

I don't know which one of those I find more baffling :blink:

Turned Bull in 2006 - bullish on what exactly!?

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Guest Daddy Bear
If I was certain that high inflation was round the corner then I'd buy a house/take on debt/dash for assets/etc. i.e. anything to get out of cash.

However if I was certain that hyperinflation was round the corner then buying a house in the UK is the last thing I'd do. OK the mortgage would be wiped out, but so would the value of the house. The whole economy would collapse. Instead I'd buy foreign currency/gold/etc. i.e. anything to get out of the UK.

I think you will find a dose of Hyperinflation is just what we all need.

This whole monetary holocaust and starving, guns and survivalist threads that comes with it is a bit of an exageration.

Yeah..... things may get bad but they'll sort it pretty quick once the debts are cleared.

If the public would just accept an overnight reset done orderly by the government it would be much smoother - however they won't so we'll have to take a more painful dose.

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I don't know which one of those I find more baffling :blink:

Turned Bull in 2006 - bullish on what exactly!?

Bullish after the midlands crash, you could buy a large house for under 200k. cheaper than the 2001 price in many places the 2004 crash was so big. I saw the large debt and realised that a hyperinflation outcome was possible, and buying a house would be a good hedge against this. I also realised that banks would give me a big loan at a low interest rate fixed for 5 or 10 years, and had a hunch this probably wouldn't be possible during hyperinflation. I banked on hyperinflation and improved my living conditions tenfold at the same time. (which means I am now sat at home, and I have a chunk of money to pay down the mortgage when the fixed rate ends)

Edited by moosetea

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A few things to think about.

If the pound totally collapses - which it could well do if QE / overspending and the attidtude to debt based growth continue then.

i) You can say goodbye to London being any sort of financial centre.

ii) You can say goodbye to the cosy structure of the govt/BOE/status quo.

In the interest of the status quo losing their position of influence and ability to cream off the rest of the population then when push comes to shove they will stop the collapse of the currency. Cuts in government spending of a huge scale are going to happen.

It has long been my belief (with plenty of evidence) is that the largest proportion of housing bubbleheads in the wider (mass) economy are the public sector works. Doctors, teachers, leachers taking public money and spunking whatever they feel like on housing / BTL. They are in for a shock and when their feather-bedded circumstances are reduced to what the rest of the general population is experiencing then the housing market will adjust accordingly.

Edited by OnlyMe

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A few things to think about.

If the pound totally collapses - which it could well do if QE / overspending and the attidtude to debt based growth continue then.

i) You can say goodbye to London being any sort of financial centre.

ii) You can say goodbye to the cosy structure of the govt/BOE/status quo.

In the interest of the status quo losing their position of influence and ability to cream off the rest of the population then when push comes to shove they will stop the collapse of the currency. Cuts in government spending of a huge scale are going to happen.

It has long been my belief (with plenty of evidence) is that the largest proportion of housing bubbleheads in the wider (mass) economy are the public sector works. Doctors, teachers, leachers taking public money and spunking whatever they feel like on housing / BTL. They are in for a shock and when their feather-bedded circumstances are reduced to what the rest of the general population is experiencing then the housing market will adjust accordingly.

If we get deflation there will be public sector pension riots. Instead we will inflate and people will accept it.

The £30k pension promised from 2035 onward will just about buy you £3k can today.

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Having expected a crash since around 2004 I guess I turned bullish on the whole thing mid way through this year. I should point out I'm just a simple home-owning family guy struggling to survive as opposed to the many brilliant, affluent, financial whizz kids who frequent this site with their talk of 'instruments' and the like. I just want a home to raise my kids in and ended up going for something a lot less pleasant than I'd hoped for, prices being what they were.

While I always wanted a crash even though I'd in theory be worse off, and was very excited when it kicked off with N Rock going titsup and the ensuing mess, I can really see a situation unfolding where things just stagnate for 10 -12 years. I can no longer see a trigger for a crash. The blue touch paper was lit. It fizzed it popped. There were explosions in the world of finance, companies lost billions. The housing market, however, is like a tortoise, slowly plodding along. Yes, crappy overpriced new build BTL investment apartments are worthless, but the homes you and I want to live in aren't. Eventually wages/inflation/etc will do its work to make housing more affordable, and FTBs will be in with a chance again. Again, I'm not a financial whizz kid like 99% of the posters here, but is this a similar scenario to the Japan's? In which case its a real possibility?

Also, I really have an aversion to hive-mind groupthink. A couple of years ago it seemed more or less 50/50 bulls:bears. Bears were of course 100% correct, and as time went by and the crash became apparent, the bulls quietly vanished. Since the financial crash though things have become much less clear; it is not a given that house prices will fall much further, but sadly any attempt at suggesting that is met with a torrent of scorn and abuse. Its a shame because this used to be a site where you could learn a lot from some pretty sharp people. Now it seems to have become a palce where only one thought is allowed, there is only one truth, supported by "mathematical data" (these whizz kids sure are smart!), when the one thing we should have all learned from the last 2 years is that while you can get some predictions right, anything could happen.

I'll happily concede that yes, there could be a further huge crash in UK house prices within the next 2-3 years, but only because I think anything could happen. I just think that scenario is now less likely than 10 years of nothing.

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Left Uni in 01

Didnt have the age/head to buy a property on my own at the time

Looked at property in spring 2004 after a pay raise and decided not to buy

Joined HPC in 2004 as a bear

The midlands saw a mini property crash from 2004-2005

Was neither in 2006

Turned Bull in 2006, and bought a house (with a big discount) at the end of the year

Turned Bear in 2007/8

Turned Bull in 2009

Bear->Neither->Bull->Bear->Bull

That is the problem you will have had. I graduated in 1996, and I suspect it was somewhat easier for me then than it was for you in 2001.

I managed to buy in 2000, thanks to a good job (ie after 4 years saving), but you would have fallen straight into the trap in 2005 through no fault of your own.

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I think you will find a dose of Hyperinflation is just what we all need.

This whole monetary holocaust and starving, guns and survivalist threads that comes with it is a bit of an exageration.

Yeah..... things may get bad but they'll sort it pretty quick once the debts are cleared.

If the public would just accept an overnight reset done orderly by the government it would be much smoother - however they won't so we'll have to take a more painful dose.

OK. I think we're using different interpretations of hyperinflation. To me hyperinflation is inflation that has gone out of control (e.g. prices doubling every month) and is not something that comes in small doses.

If you're talking about say 20% pa inflation, then I'm sure that those in debt would welcome it (although pensioners might think differently). However 20% pa inflation is not really hyperinflation.

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