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the_dork

Anyone Done Serious Gambling?

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I reckon I'm about double up from the small stakes I play with. If I had a big capital fund (I mean 30k here not even 300k-many baby boomers would easily have this though) I'd be confident of easily making 10-20% a year. larger fund would let you double up more and chase any losses.

I see it's easy to just bet on 50 50 sports events, under 2.5 goals or odd/even in a game, all at slightly less than evens. Or even just sticking to the roulette table and having a set target to make (ie. being able to follow up say 10 reds in a row with doubled stakes each time)

Has anyone done this? Do betting firms shut down accounts where it's clear people are trying to do this? Is it actually that hard to beat the bookies if you have a set strategy and don't get excited/irrational

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I reckon I'm about double up from the small stakes I play with. If I had a big capital fund (I mean 30k here not even 300k-many baby boomers would easily have this though) I'd be confident of easily making 10-20% a year. larger fund would let you double up more and chase any losses.

I see it's easy to just bet on 50 50 sports events, under 2.5 goals or odd/even in a game, all at slightly less than evens. Or even just sticking to the roulette table and having a set target to make (ie. being able to follow up say 10 reds in a row with doubled stakes each time)

Has anyone done this? Do betting firms shut down accounts where it's clear people are trying to do this? Is it actually that hard to beat the bookies if you have a set strategy and don't get excited/irrational

I did fixed odds betting with IG index when they introduced it several years ago.

They offer all sorts of fixed odds markets, sports and financial.

I stuck to financial bets.

I ran 4K up to over 100K and kept it.

IG have made it much harder to make money with fixed odds financial bets these days, as bet outcomes are more random now due to more over rounding and wider spreads than before.

So now i gamble/speculate on the financial Futures markets with InteractiveBrokers.

On a bad day i might lose 50K on a good day make over 100K.

The bookies will always make it hard to bet large size if you are a net winner and the game is rigged against you with over rounding and wide spreads etc

Better to gamble on an exchange where everyone is equal.

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I see it's easy to just bet on 50 50 sports events...all at slightly less than evens. Or even just sticking to the roulette table and having a set target to make (ie. being able to follow up say 10 reds in a row with doubled stakes each time)

Has anyone done this? Do betting firms shut down accounts where it's clear people are trying to do this? Is it actually that hard to beat the bookies if you have a set strategy and don't get excited/irrational

Honestly, I don't mean any offense, and I don't generally like to get personal here, but you sound like a total moron.

Do bookies shut you down if you try and double your roulette stake every time?? Try going to a casino, they'll roll out the red carpet for you....Every stake you put on a roulette red/black stake will return you on average 48.65% if it has a single-zero or 47.37% if it has a zero and a double-zero, as I think American ones do (maybe the Yanks are just thicker). That's 18/37, or 18/38, depending. Long-term, you SHOULD lose. If you had an infinite amount of money, your doubling up strategy would win, less than that, its a long-term loser.

And by definition, betting on 50-50 sports events at "slightly less than evens" is also a loser...

I have a large "stake" and have been trading for years, occasionally poker (which is really the only casino game where skill can overcome the slight odds against you) but more often the financial markets (through spread-betting), where your opinion counts. It's not easy, but I win...having a larger stake makes it no easier than a smaller stake. Good luck and stick with it, but get a calculator and have a think about what odds you are getting, you'll soon move away from roulette and onto events where your opinion can make you a winner.

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I have yet to meet a poor bookie.

About 25 years ago I had a chum who worked as a commodities dealer for a major City house: he was a frenetic and insane gambler who would bet on anything which moved.

When the City house closed much of their commodities trading side they agreed to sell one of the small companies to my chum and two other directors, stripped of assets and with zero liabilities.

They took a small office and started: the senior guy was a spice trader and did well: my chum stuck to "softs" and veered from making £100K to losing £100K week after week.

Then one day a friend of his, a retired bookie shook him by the scruff of the neck and said: "You are an arch gambler who will bet on anything: and knows every possible combination of bets and odds. Isn't it about time you wised up and became a bookie?"

So they jumped in the ex-bookies new Roller and set off for South London and found a suitable empty shop: which beame my chum's first betting shop.

Last time I spoke to him it was Derby Day and I caught him in one of his six shops: and he had just paid out a punter £500 on the favourite.

"Did you lay his bet off?" I asked thinking of his pain!

"Nope!" he replied, " At present he has gone to the pub with his mates: he usually punts 50 pence each way and drinks halves of stout. He is drinking double brandies and buying 'em for everyone else too; and smoking cigars instead of his habitual rolls ups. Before he left the shop he was laying down £5 each way on the follow up races. And he'll be back soon doing his brains!"

"Before the day is out I'll have my £500 back: and a load more!"

Another friend blew his last million in one of London's casinos playing roulette: and it wasn't his only million!

At the end he had lost two adjoining and beautiful purpose built houses in a quiet leafy lane in Surrey: all his money (Millions) and finished up living in a rented flat and working at a filling station evenings to make ends meet at the age of nearly 70.

Mug's game.

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i'll gamble on most things, Poker is my main poison.

my theory is that what ever i play and playing with, im and fully prepared to loose, and i can afford to loose it. if i win its a bonus.

Casino games are massivly set against the player, yes there are some big winners, but how many? whats the foot fall of that casino?

Poker, is a part skill, part luck game, and IMHO the only one that involves skill in a Casino.

i make imaginary bets on motor racing, then kick myself when they win and that i didnt put money down, but i know the minute i do i will loose it.

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I reckon I'm about double up from the small stakes I play with. If I had a big capital fund (I mean 30k here not even 300k-many baby boomers would easily have this though) I'd be confident of easily making 10-20% a year. larger fund would let you double up more and chase any losses.

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

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There are two common and basically legal ways to win at gambling where the odds are on your side.

1. Be an online poker player and become very good. The reason is that the sites take a comission and if you're a good player you have the edge over the inexperienced masses.

2. Learn to count cards in blackjack.

Both require a very good head for arithmetic, probability and hundreds of hours play to get really good (during which you'll lose money).

Of the two, becoming a serious online poker player requires less maths because you can run widgets on screen to do most of it for you and less risk because you won't get 'politely' asked to leave the casino when the dealer suspects you're counting at blackjack.

There are also, of course, dozens of illegal ways!

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It's rather funny.

I've known two other compulsive gamblers in my life: they both maintained they and the bookies were "About even".

Yes..............................

The first I had the misfortune to start a part-time business with in my trusting youth: after my main work I was grafting selling stuff and we were, on paper doing very well.

He "Looked after" the stock.

What stock?

With him another of his then friends and I tried everything: religion; hypnotherapy; going to gaming clubs in the early hours and dragging him back to his wife and baby: hitting him. Nothing worked.

Sod the cash: what about his wife and their 6 months old babe?

Lovely girl too. She later re-married and found a bloke worthy of her and was very happy.

Him?

Carried on and tucked up a local dodgy player over a deal where the player fronted a bundle of capital for a business and chummy spunked the lot in the clubs.

Surprised he wasn't found one dark night with his throat slit.

Waster and loser.

The second worked for a major City bank: and his wife worked part-time for me for a couple of years.

One day she came into the office and after a rah rah sales meeting asked if we could have a word: at which point after everyone else had gone, she burst into floods of tears and expressed here concern about keeping their house (Nice place too on, in those days, an maazing bank preferrential mortgage at circa 1%!).

Turned out her husband was doing his salary mainly gambling.

Tosser!

Nice lady and two nice kids.

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I reckon I'm about double up from the small stakes I play with. If I had a big capital fund (I mean 30k here not even 300k-many baby boomers would easily have this though) I'd be confident of easily making 10-20% a year. larger fund would let you double up more and chase any losses.

I see it's easy to just bet on 50 50 sports events, under 2.5 goals or odd/even in a game, all at slightly less than evens. Or even just sticking to the roulette table and having a set target to make (ie. being able to follow up say 10 reds in a row with doubled stakes each time)

Has anyone done this? Do betting firms shut down accounts where it's clear people are trying to do this? Is it actually that hard to beat the bookies if you have a set strategy and don't get excited/irrational

The whole western financial system has been playing this kind of retarded Martingalesque strategy, that's why we're in this mess. They thought their ridiculous system was sure to increase their stake by X% a year without stopping to consider the 1 year in Y that it would wipe them out completely.

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Honestly, I don't mean any offense, and I don't generally like to get personal here, but you sound like a total moron.

And by definition, betting on 50-50 sports events at "slightly less than evens" is also a loser...

It's fine, it's not something I've done and I can take any insults (not that you've insulted me there)

My point is that of course, you'll lose on average. However, martingaling with a set strategy can surely give you a fair return IF you have enough capital. Let's say you're playing red/black on casino, target of £50 a day. Bet £50, if lose £100, if lose again £200, again £400, again £800, then £1600 then £3200. The odds of getting say a run of seven is slightly less than 0.5 to the power of 7. Even if we assume a majorly unlucky run of say 20 losses, there's surely people (not myself unfortunately) who can cope with this

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It's fine, it's not something I've done and I can take any insults (not that you've insulted me there)

My point is that of course, you'll lose on average. However, martingaling with a set strategy can surely give you a fair return IF you have enough capital. Let's say you're playing red/black on casino, target of £50 a day. Bet £50, if lose £100, if lose again £200, again £400, again £800, then £1600 then £3200. The odds of getting say a run of seven is slightly less than 0.5 to the power of 7. Even if we assume a majorly unlucky run of say 20 losses, there's surely people (not myself unfortunately) who can cope with this

The casinos have a max bet size on each table so you cant keep on doubling up.

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It's fine, it's not something I've done and I can take any insults (not that you've insulted me there)

My point is that of course, you'll lose on average. However, martingaling with a set strategy can surely give you a fair return IF you have enough capital. Let's say you're playing red/black on casino, target of £50 a day. Bet £50, if lose £100, if lose again £200, again £400, again £800, then £1600 then £3200. The odds of getting say a run of seven is slightly less than 0.5 to the power of 7. Even if we assume a majorly unlucky run of say 20 losses, there's surely people (not myself unfortunately) who can cope with this

What happens when the ball lands on green and neither red nor green wins ?

Only two casino games you can win at. Blackjack, if you count the cards. That's why the majors have multiple decks and some even continuously shuffle (the Mirage in Vegas).

Poker, because you're playing other people, not the casino. The casino takes its rake per game and doesn't card about the outcome. It takes some skill though to overcome both the other players and the rake/tips. In fact playing say 2:4 limit it's very difficult to overcome the rake/tips.

Roulette, slots, baccarat, craps, big wheel, it's a mugs game if you're looking to win. If you're having fun its a different issue.

You don't think the casinos got that big by losing money do you ?

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Only two casino games you can win at. Blackjack, if you count the cards. That's why the majors have multiple decks and some even continuously shuffle (the Mirage in Vegas).

Many casino dealers now use machines that constantly shuffle the deck making card counting impossible. Card counting is very difficult anyway, It's much easier to become a good poker player than a successful card counter. Most casinos run poker tournaments, where you can play for relatively low stakes. I typically play in tourneys with an entry fee of £30 to £50 (there's a further 10% rake to the casino), and I am up on the year. My hourly rate is probably lower than minimum wage though :( .

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Many casino dealers now use machines that constantly shuffle the deck making card counting impossible. Card counting is very difficult anyway, It's much easier to become a good poker player than a successful card counter. Most casinos run poker tournaments, where you can play for relatively low stakes. I typically play in tourneys with an entry fee of £30 to £50 (there's a further 10% rake to the casino), and I am up on the year. My hourly rate is probably lower than minimum wage though :( .

If you're having fun that's all that counts.

Had a mate who claimed he was making "30k a year tax free" playing on line poker. Gave it up due to the sheer boredom and the fact that he couldnt play when the money was easy (Friday/Saturday night after the pubs close).

I only play live poker because interaction with the other players is an important part of the game for me. Online bores me rigid.

It's hard with tourneys if you're playing live. If you go to Vegas you may be able to play say 2 tourneys a day. If you win once then you are probably getting a good return on your money. But it's relatively easy to go a week without winning, even if you are a good player. And that's such a downer it spoils it for me.

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There are a few ways you can make a living from sports betting. None of which are easy and of course require you to risk money. If you succeed the bookies will get to know you and be less willing to take big bets from you, so you may need to find a fresh supply of bookies worldwide to keep this up:

  1. Arbitrarge Betting - finding an event where the best odds offered by different bookies are such that the overround < 100%, and you can get a guaranteed profit regardless of outcome. Profits can be anything from 1% to 50% of the amount staked. Beware of transactional costs. E.g. a 2% credit card fee could eliminate the profit.
  2. Value Betting - knowing your sports well, and betting when you believe the book has got the odds wrong. People can and do make money doing this. The idea is not to win everytime, but for example if you can get 10-1 on an outcome that has a 20% probability, you will lose most of the time, but on average of a number of instances you will come out on top.
  3. Angle Shooting - looking for ways to beat the system such as making bets on live games at the exact moment a goal is scored, a corner etc. Bookies will soon close your account if you do this though.

Plus anyone, yes anyone over 18 can easily make £1000+ one off by using arbitrage in conjunction with the free bet offers given by bookies. Due to the free bets, you don't need overround <100% so you can use any reasonable event to tease out the free bet. The idea is to spend for example £105 to win a guaranteed £100 and lose just £5 to get the free bet. Then just value bet it, or arb the free bet against another account.

It is possible also to make a living from online or live poker by being more skillful than your opponents. Also playing at the right times of day can help (when others are drunk for example).

Blackjack can be beaten in casinos by card counting as seen in the 21 film. I believe fruit machines can be beaten if you know what you are doing, the machine has a house advantage, but I think it gives out clues that can be picked up about when it is ready to pay out, so effectively you win money off drunk and inexperienced players.

Roulette cannot be beaten in the long term because it is pure luck with a house advantage. Best strategy for roulette is to make a single bet with your entire stake and walk away win or lose.

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QUOTE (traderboy @ Sep 19 2009, 12:20 PM) *

Every stake you put on a roulette red/black stake will return you on average 48.65% if it has a single-zero...

Er, 97.3% surely....

Oops, yes that's what I meant to say, probability of win = 48.65%, average payout double that......my maths is better than my command of English it seems......

Back to the topic....card-counting in Blackjack in reality is too hard, due to use of mutiple decks and not using the decks right to the end....and poker you can have an edge but the amount of time it takes, as another poster mentioned, means that your "average wage" is suprisingly small....I still think financial markets are the way to trade....read/research and have a view....if you want to try turning a small stake into a large stake, use the guaranteed stop-losses they offer, and try and ride a trend, increasing your position and moving your stop to maintain the same downside....not my style personally, but am sure would work for some.

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I know of someone who has made quite a few million on horses. However, he knows them inside out. I have had the priviledge of having his "info" for the last 8 months, and have seen first hand and with my small betting account that he has an edge. As an example, he totally cleaned up at Cheltenham in March. However, not many people can do this without seriously hard work and dedication and more importantly passion. When you sit down to study a horse race and look at the variables such as, gradient on that course in the run in, horse wearing blinkers, wind speed, weight ratios, trainer, average furlong speed, watching the last 3 races of every horse in that race-how strong they finished, did they look tired, were they catching...etc etc. The horse that finished in 3rd, 4th , 5th etc might be one to watch if he was finishing strong, the going conditions, the pedigree, the distance...As you can see countless variables...Perhaps 8 hours work in preparation for one race. True wealth and money rarely comes easy. This guy also does not look at the odds, the horse does not know the odds.

It is the 90% who help pay these guys. The bookies are not stupid. They will price odds in many races to fool joe public. Lets say the bookies make a horse favourite at 7/4 or 2/1...The bookies might make this a false favourite, knowing it is not a true favourite, however, the punter likes to back favourites so the heavy money goes here and this horse will only win about 1 in 3 times. Someone who knows horse will know the true favourite at 6/1, 10/1 etc, or good value can be found perhaps at above 14/1...I have had a lot of 14/1 winners, and I even had a 100/1 winner in the national this year, and a 33/1 winner in the irish grand national with Niche Market. These horses were stupidly priced, but the betting was low on them, so the bookies won big as joe public stayed away from value and went for what the bookies odds suggested was the best horse which is not always the case.

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The bookies are not stupid. They will price odds in many races to fool joe public.

I think people give the bookies too much credence when it comes to pricing....the betting exchanges, particularly Betfair, are now the pricing source, anyone can go on and offer odds to back or lay any horse on any race. The bookies then just make their odds worse than Betfair. And any big bets they take I would think they are likely to lay-off on Betfair if they haven't got a balanced book.

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Don't do it. I was once into Texas hold'um and went to a few tournaments. In some ways a cheap night out, 10 or 20 buy in, no one drinks a lot to keep a clear head and if you play well it can be a whole nights entertainment for £10. The problem comes when you start to think you're getting good. At the end of the day everyone is at the mercy of the cards that come and the last time i played i just sat there getting 2s and 7s watching the blinds destroy my stack after 4 hours doing well and getting to the final table. I felt like a piece of my soul had been ripped out as i left Luton casino (dive). But a lot of people stay on and get into cash games on the side. No limit cash game when you think you should be winning..... fvck that ;)

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