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It's All Over Guys - Time To Call It A Day


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Guest Parry aka GOD
OT but does anybody think that Meridith Whitney is a good sh@g or would she be boring? She is my number 1 girl-she makes all the other chicks on both sides of the pond look like bozos. I love her and plan on asking her to marry me.

:ph34r:

We talked about this unfortunate institution before Tom.

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What Meridith is saying is that US property will correct ANOTHER 25%. Sheeez that's about 60%+ all told. Also she is long Goldmans-thinks they still have some "gas in the tank" and basically bearish on all the other banks. I am short BOA and Citi mostly so I love her. Plus she has a great track record and knows her stuff.

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OT but does anybody think that Meridith Whitney is a good sh@g or would she be boring? She is my number 1 girl-she makes all the other chicks on both sides of the pond look like bozos. I love her and plan on asking her to marry me.

You'll have to go through him!

jbl_biobild1.jpg

:P

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This is more of what I'm on about, thanks Stars.

I think the UK is 1. Not protectionist enough and/or allows 'trading partners' preferential terms, 2. The credit bubble combined with destruction of confidence in private pensions drove normal folk to BTL, hence bubble, 3. Money (a running account of ingenuity, resource and production of real wealth creation has been destroyed, 4. Money did not go into pensions funds which provided the real finance for R&D/industrial development.

None of this helps affordability.

I'm afraid I substantially disagree. Land itself should never have been and should never be an 'investment' opportunity, pensions or no, because price speculation in land robs the the productive community of its production and so solves no problems while creating costs. All of our present problems directly or indirectly arise from the robbery that took place in the price speculation in real estate. The bubble wasn't really caused by the pensions robbery as the speculation opportunity would have existed as an incentive and would have been used (by someone) whether pensions had been robbed or not. Protectionist measures don't help they just shift (transfer) wealth from one group to another in much the same way as the real estate 'market' does. In the uk we seem to be addicted to solutions that transfer wealth when all that is really needed is for producers not to have their wealth siphoned by monopolies and taxes.

Edited by Stars
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Guest Parry aka GOD
I'm afraid I substantially disagree. Land itself should never have been and should never be an 'investment' opportunity, pensions or no, because price speculation in land robs the the productive community of its production and so solves no problems while creating costs. All of our present problems directly or indirectly arise from the robbery that took place in the price speculation in real estate. The bubble wasn't really caused by the pensions robbery as the speculation opportunity would have existed as an incentive and would have been used (by someone) whether pensions had been robbed or not. Protectionist measures don't help they just shift (transfer) wealth from one group to another in much the same way as the real estate 'market' does. In the uk we seem to be addicted to solutions that transfer wealth when all that is really needed is for producers not to have their wealth siphoned by monopolies and taxes.

Substantially agree. But the pensions robbery drove people to find an alternative vehicle for retirement planning. They thought they only understood residential property.

Not so much us being protectionist, just not putting up with protectionist trading 'partners'. Try getting stuff into Asia. Easy to get it out.

Last line in bold. Absolutely.

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There will be no winter of discontent. No more HPC following seventeen months of crash.

It's over. Business as usual.

two questions for you:

  • what were the problems that cause the recent decline in economic activity?

  • have those problems been resolved?

because if they haven't, then why the f*** do you think it's over! :lol::lol::lol:

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two questions for you:
  • what were the problems that cause the recent decline in economic activity?

  • have those problems been resolved?

because if they haven't, then why the f*** do you think it's over! :lol::lol::lol:

a) house prices are rising

B) the markets are rising

c) the op understands nothing about money/liquidity/currencies

until shiny metals dive, it ain't over. Even when serious risk has passed, the transfer of wealth from west to east will continue for years as will our increasing poverty.

on a happier note :lol: , I had a tooth pulled today and it hurts like feck, gonna drink lots of wine now so further posts may not be so well spelt :P

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Guest Parry aka GOD
a) house prices are rising

B) the markets are rising

c) the op understands nothing about money/liquidity/currencies

until shiny metals dive, it ain't over. Even when serious risk has passed, the transfer of wealth from west to east will continue for years as will our increasing poverty.

on a happier note :lol: , I had a tooth pulled today and it hurts like feck, gonna drink lots of wine now so further posts may not be so well spelt :P

Keep pouring Brandy on it. Use a straw.

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I love threads like this. When someone tries to argue house prices won't fall their arguments are so feeble it gives me renewed hope.

Worst is yet to come.

He did pick the wrong site to try and argue his case, the problem is that some predictions and opinions on here are very gloomy and I can see why he says that.

Trouble is I personally think some of the gloomy predictions are right!

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Terribly dull in the Main Forum everyone just agreeing with each other. There's something bigger in play here and I don't see that even another 20% drop in house prices will improve affordability for most when jobs are being lost like they are and real wealth creation has shifted continents.

What is real wealth? (Don't say debt anyone please ... )

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Guest Parry aka GOD
What is real wealth? (Don't say debt anyone please ... )

The chair I'm sat on.

This desk.

The ceiling above.

The fridge in the kitchen.

The over ripe tomato in the fridge.

Stuff. Real wealth to me is populations living healthy, safe and comfortable lives. Electricity, clean water etc. Roofs over heads. Education. Health care. Agricultural production. Energy production . . .

Guess it's got all that. Just seems to be a bit unstable and needs fixing for the future.

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He did pick the wrong site to try and argue his case, the problem is that some predictions and opinions on here are very gloomy and I can see why he says that.

Trouble is I personally think some of the gloomy predictions are right!

Sometimes WUM's are just lonely people. They get a lot of answers so they feel important. Trolls the same I would guess.

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Guest Daddy Bear
There will be no winter of discontent. No more HPC following seventeen months of crash.

It's over. Business as usual.

As usual you are all wrong...

What we have coming is a crack up boom.

There will be no substantial falls in AVERAGE NOMINAL HOUSE PRICES ACCORDING TO THE INDICES over the coming months.

This NOMINAL rise in HP (stocks, commodities, etc) is all due to people swapping paper for assets due to FEAR. For 6 months maybe a year.... maybe more.... people will gradually think its back to business as normal - but the boom will become more and more unhinged...as people scramble out of cash and into assets - Massive Inflation will result and scare people even more. There will be a currency event. Wages will eventually rise massively compared to Nominall House prices and eventually the status quo of (3.5 - 4 x joint income) what house prices should be will return IN REAL TERMS. However there will be no winners as the process will be long and drawn out - 5 - 10 years.

For those who have been waiting the time to buy was winter of 08', spring 09' - when the fear was greatest and a 30% reduction off peak could have been negotiated and a 10 year fix at less then 5% could have been had. ;)

DB

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Guest Daddy Bear
For a minute there you had me going.

As in you are considering the possibility that the remainder of the HPC will only occur in real terms over many years?

Not that unimagineable really is it?

Do you really think what is happening now is Normal.

OIL...GAS...GOLD...STOCKS...UK HOUSING...COMMODITIEs...

Sheesh - why is it only me that can see this?

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Guest Daddy Bear
Hello Daddy Bull :rolleyes:

Was a Bear from July 2005 (see joining date).

STR'd Aug 2007 (at peak)

Turned NOMINALLY bullish turn of 2009 and bought a lovely home on a 10 year fix at 4.99% in May 2009

Since then The indices have risen for 5 months in a row. (Not that I care ) - HPC is so old ...yawn ...

You lot really can't see what is coming can you?

_46353831_house_prices_10sep09.gif

CAN YOU SEE IT NOW ?

Edited by Daddy Bear
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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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