Pluto Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/18092009/325/gold-...-rally-add.html Most of the run higher has been led by major flows into the U.S. COMEX gold futures market, with trading investors and speculators vastly increasing long positions, leaving the price vulnerable to rapid and sharp falls. The latest weekly Commitments of Traders report published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed net long positions had widened to a massive 224,676 as of September 8 compared with 184,501 a week earlier. Positioning looks set to extend more, but the longer it gets, the bigger the risk. "Everybody is saying the market is too long, but no-one wants to sell," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. "There's too much money in the world as central banks take easy policy and as funds push up the market with the money. They see (the) gold market as easy to manipulate...like a casino." But flows into exchange traded funds, the beneficiary of gold buying earlier in the year, have not kept pace with the latest price surge, and physical demand from the jewellery sector has gone cold. Inflows into gold-backed ETFs have picked up a little after plateauing over the summer months, but remain well down on the first quarter's record levels. On the currency front, the dollar has fallen to one-year lows against a basket of major currencies , while the euro looks set to hit $1.50. As a function of dollar weakness with an inverse correlation, gold is pulsing higher as the dollar falls, but that does not equal optimum conditions for the metal, some say. "This is not a bull market for gold, it's a bear market for paper currencies, led by the dollar," said Sean Corrigan, chief investment officer at Diapason Commodities Management in Switzerland. A look at non-dollar denominated gold also shows an unfamiliar pattern as the current rally is not being replicated. Sterling-priced gold, for instance, is only at its highest since April, while bullion in commodity currency the Australian dollar is struggling to revisit recent two-month highs. FEAR FACTOR? The other missing link to the current rally is fear, gold's usual cheerleader when prices are surging. "There is no real fear, which would be supportive for gold in the medium term," said Eugen Weinberg, commodities strategist at Commerzbank. "The market is not concerned any more about the economy or about the health of the financial system, and I think this will not be sustainable." Gold last got through the psychological $1,000 barrier and hit a record high in March 2008 -- coinciding with the collapse of Bear Stearns and subsequent distressed sale to JPMorgan. Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at Brewin Dolphin, looking back at the financial crisis, notes how each time gold raced up in crisis mode, it quickly sold off again. "I don't think gold bullion is going much beyond where it has got to already. It had its chance to fly with the mother of all financial upheavals, and it didn't." _____________________________________ Um, I think I agree with all or most of that. Time to sell my soveriegn. [/quote Sean Corrigan is an idiot. A sell off in fiat currencies is a bull market in Gold. Fill ya boots. Nuff said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porca misèria Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 It is fractional reserve selling but far worse if you consider that gold is limited but the printing presses are not. We may have a classic oversold situation where the vast majority have bought nothing more than a promise to deliver the physical. Thus gold and paper are identical in terms of "worth." You got a paper note on you? Read it! I promise to pay the bearer on demand ... Wonder if that could be the basis of a fraud case against them? If the herd get wind of the possibility they may have bought an unfulfillable promise they might try to quietly unwind their positions and buy AAA rated government bonds. PIMCO are moving from corporates to treasuries and Bill Gross is rarely wrong in seeing the big trends. Who is PIMCO? (I won't lend my money to this government on principle, never mind the merits or otherwise of it as an investment). Come to think of it, if there's a "long squeeze", couldn't it be good news for ETFs linked to physical gold? That is, so long as anyone busted by it gets the customary bailout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Time to sell my sovereign. Curious. :angry: Seeing as you were adamant it was going to $500 when it was roughly $800, I'm very surprised you have any. (At that time I was saying 'buy gold and gold shares etc. Obviously I was deemed a crackpot - so wha's new?) I'm not really surprised. You just like to make scary comments in an unbalanced (journalistically) way. It is true that gold could quite as easily go to 850 as 1250 next stop (though if you look at $ it just keeps falling so commodities seem on a longer rally). But medium long term it is... going to the moon. Readers should not listen to those who scaremonger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webchat Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 That's hitting the nail on the head.Not much to trust other than a good veggie patch in t' back garden. The most reliable 'hedge' fund Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Sando Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 The most reliable 'hedge' fund Gold hater's are just gold bugs trying to get it cheap. They must think we are stupid. nobody is that dumb that theyt can't understand supply and demand, fiat Vs real money, are they. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 until physical delivery day of course, then your nine beers are delivered in a teacup with a note saying......"IOU 8.5 beers" I thought the government just brewed the beer up to replace what didn't previously exist, allowing it to be delivered? All funded by the taxpayer, of course! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piece of paper Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Now, if you could turn one beer into 9 more beers, that would be excellent. Fool! Eight of them are just pictures of beers. Don't you read anything on this forum. p-o-p EDIT: Whoops! Sorry Injin - I thought it was someone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Gold hater's are just gold bugs trying to get it cheap. They must think we are stupid. nobody is that dumb that theyt can't understand supply and demand, fiat Vs real money, are they. yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jin Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 PIMCO are moving from corporates to treasuries and Bill Gross is rarely wrong in seeing the big trends. Erm the Same PIMCO who are up to their eyeballs in Fannie and Freddie MBS's - yeah good move - lucky for them the bailout came. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godless Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 The comex is irrelevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Im starting BeerVault.com All YOUR* beer, safely stored, in my shed......... *Beer has not yet been brewed. Any mention of "beer" in this infomercial is entirely coincedental. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 still got those US$ RB? give up mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan B'Stard MP Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 The comex is irrelevant. Obviously a goldbug, playing cards with Fat Tony on a glass table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piece of paper Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Im starting BeerVault.comAll YOUR* beer, safely stored, in my shed......... *Beer has not yet been brewed. Any mention of "beer" in this infomercial is entirely coincedental. Sounds like an undertaking of great advantage if ever I heard one. p-o-p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godless Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Obviously a goldbug, playing cards with Fat Tony on a glass table. You'd be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan B'Stard MP Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 You'd be wrong. Scrabble? Pound-a-point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lurker07 Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 I think the peak for Gold was 1983. Got to number 2 I believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minos Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Gold hater's are just gold bugs trying to get it cheap. They must think we are stupid. nobody is that dumb that theyt can't understand supply and demand, fiat Vs real money, are they. If you 'love' gold, you are heading for a fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 If you 'love' gold, you are heading for a fall. It's a store of wealth for me. I would be sh1tting myself with a large str fund in the bank right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashologist Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Im starting BeerVault.com We'll soon have prohibition at this rate. Gold (and silver) etfs appear to be an ideal Ponzi vehicle don't they? What would happen if everybody said "ok just give me the gold you are kindly holding for me". It's the same as demanding all your money from the bank in one go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Sando Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 If you 'love' gold, you are heading for a fall. As long as I fall onto a big pile of gold I'll be very happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minos Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 As long as I fall onto a big pile of gold I'll be very happy. ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Sando Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Rising prices of precious metals and other commodities are an indication of a very early stage of an endeavor to move away from paper currencies...What is fascinating is the extent to which gold still holds reign over the financial system as the ultimate source of paymentâ€. Alan Greenspan Sept 9, 2009 I luv you Alan, you have made me a very happy bunny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minos Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Rising prices of precious metals and other commodities are an indication of a very early stage of an endeavor to move away from paper currencies...What is fascinating is the extent to which gold still holds reign over the financial system as the ultimate source of paymentâ€. Alan Greenspan Sept 9, 2009 I luv you Alan, you have made me a very happy bunny. You trust everything Greenspan says or just the bits you like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Am I allowed to say backwardation? By coincidence, I was reading this today - I can't remember where I found the link, but it has been waiting to be read for a few days. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-and-systemic-crisis The interesting bit is here... What has characterized our international system since 1971, or "Bretton Woods II" as it is sometimes called, is this: 1) the gold futures clearing system, and related paper markets and 2) the ability to swap oil for gold via these markets using exclusively US Dollars. This has given implicit support to the U.S. dollar far beyond what could be reasonably imagined considering the U.S. fiscal situation -- in the sense that the dollar is supported as long as 1) oil is for sale in dollars and 2) gold is for sale in dollars. This does not always have to be the case, and this is the core of the issue. If gold goes into permanent backwardation it will no longer be for sale in dollars on COMEX. Period. This will implicitly cut off oil flows to a trickle until payment is re-linked to gold via the IMF SDR or another mechanism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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