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Attended A Property Conference Recently

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On Wednesday I attended a customer conference organised by a property industry software supplier whose customers include some of the big property companies in the country.

Now one of the guest speakers was Professor Douglas McWilliams, never heard of him but apparently he's a world renowed economist with an apparent enviable track record in economic foreccasting ( runs the think tank CEBR) & also he's an adviser to the Tory Party so knows what young Georgie is up to.

Bascially to precis his speech, 'don't worry everything's gonna be alright';just thought I'd share some of his forecasts if I can remember:

Residential housing market has reached bottom, ( you should've heard the collective gasp of relief from the audience, I got glared at by some suveyors for muttering 'bull$hit) slow growth for now on but transaction levels remain low into the future.

Commercial property to contine to struggle for a while but then great recovery & capital appreciation of 40% within 3/4 yrs. Again self-satisfied looks around the room!

Recession is over , tentative recovery so sluggish growth for next few years but growth nonetheless

Interest rates to remain low for foreseeable future, was right thing to do to bail out banks, don't worry about QE, is not Zimbabwe model, won't lead to inflation as we are dealing with velocity of money with this policy blah, blah. Inflation won't be high... At this point he started explaining inflation , now he may well be an economics professor but he was talking about symptoms of inflation ie suppressed wage costs etc rather than causes but the audience was lapping it up

Euro to break up within 10 yrs probably sooner because of fall of Italy's share of export market, unsustainable, so expects Sterling to rise to 1.40 by 2012 so obviously no collpase of £ in his model even though he talked about huge UK public debt! USD to remain.

His opening assertions were about the shift from West to East and how this was the biggest economic event since the Industrial Revolution & now the West accounts for less than 50% of world GDP. Given this is so I didn't see how the rest of his analysis fitted this!

This guy is a senior advisor to the Tories and he reckons he has formulated much of their policy & if they do get in VAT will probably rise to 20% as no other choice.

To me he just came across as a typical keynesian/Monetarist hybrid creature that got us into this mess in the first place. But others there ,who run property companies don't forget, were reassured by his outlook whereas it just strengthened my resolve to do the opposite of what they all planned to do!

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The shift from west to east is now stillborn.

Here's my prediction, that I hope does not come true.

The USA is about to erupt politically. This is going to change the world in ways that cannot be imagined. Hardly anyone expects this. Just like the American Revolution, the Russian Revolution and the French Revolution, all largely unforeseen events.

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Just done a google search on Prof Douglas McWilliam. Wanted to do a bit of a check on his track record. Not easy though cos the first 3 or 4 pages of results are Agents booking him out as a public speaker!

So, is he just saying what his paymasters want to hear?

Edited by Nick Dastardly

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Just done a google search on Prof Douglas McWilliam. Wanted to do a bit of a check on his track record. Not easy though cos the first 3 or 4 pages of results are Agents booking him out as a public speaker!

So, is he just saying what his paymasters want to hear?

Think you're right to be honest, will just disregard him!

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It's property managment software.

Cheers.

The most serious danger going forward is where politics collides with bailouts, particularly in the USA.

The Asian economic model is dead. Asia is going to be freeze dried. This will be a problem for Germany too.

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The shift from west to east is now stillborn.

Here's my prediction, that I hope does not come true.

The USA is about to erupt politically. This is going to change the world in ways that cannot be imagined. Hardly anyone expects this. Just like the American Revolution, the Russian Revolution and the French Revolution, all largely unforeseen events.

Or The Spanish Inquisition, nobody expects that.

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Now one of the guest speakers was Professor Douglas McWilliams, never heard of him but apparently he's a world renowed economist with an apparent enviable track record in economic foreccasting ( runs the think tank CEBR) & also he's an adviser to the Tory Party so knows what young Georgie is up to.

Residential housing market has reached bottom, ( you should've heard the collective gasp of relief from the audience, I got glared at by some suveyors for muttering 'bull$hit) slow growth for now on but transaction levels remain low into the future.

This is the same idiot who pops up all the time to say positive things about everything.

In late 2007 he made the 'controversial' forecast that there would 000s of City job losses. How many? 5,000. At that time I was forecastin g 30,000. By the time he got there - 3 forecast changes later, after Lehmans, I had moved to 50,000.

he's a pr1ck of the top order. You were totally right to mutter bovine excrement.

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I turned 'bull' a few weeks ago but I'm on the point of going 'bear' again now. I don't think I'm the only person who is like this. There are too many variables in play for anyone to predict the future. It's like with secondhand cars - even the experts were caught out by the sudden rise in prices - some dealers won't even haggle over price any more, apparently - it's the 'windecreen' price, take it or leave it.

Unemployment is set to keep rising as British industry continues to contract. Yet some people are obviously making a lot of money. The big thing now, barring any further banking catastrophes, is when and by how much interest rates will rise.

Edited by blankster

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Funny anecdote

Today I got a cold call from someone spruiking investment property. Usually I just hang up on cold callers but because I was half-cut and because it was about property I thought I'd ****** with them. Long and short of it was that I have a consultant coming around this monday to tell me the advantages of investing in property. Good luck with the fictitious name, address, income, family status and work status. FAIL

FWIW the cold caller was pretty bad at selling.

:P

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This is the same idiot who pops up all the time to say positive things about everything.

In late 2007 he made the 'controversial' forecast that there would 000s of City job losses. How many? 5,000. At that time I was forecastin g 30,000. By the time he got there - 3 forecast changes later, after Lehmans, I had moved to 50,000.

he's a pr1ck of the top order. You were totally right to mutter bovine excrement.

A bit like someone who STR in 2002 then....... :lol:

Edited by maffo in oxford

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The economics profession was too myopic to see the dangers developing over the last 20 years. These dangers are now morphing into political problems, most strongly manifested in the USA. The government is badly disconnected from those who form the backbone of the US economy. This is a very dangerous situation. Note Pelosi's comments just yesterday. Unprecedented.

These ramifications will require other countries to re-arm, something that has not been required since the 1930's.

The USA spends more money on the just the Gulf fleet than most countries do on their entire defence budget. Austrailia, Japan and Taiwan may find themselves having to defend against China. Europe may find that they have to develop a defence network. Currently these national budgets are not accommodating this. This means that money will have to be cut from other areas. And in the case of war, will the Poles or Czechs want to fight on behalf of the Germans? Will the British want to fight on behalf of the French? This will be the ultimate test of the European Union, something that has not been necessary because of the US defence umbrella.

These political changes are coming against the tough economic climate that faces us.

Edited by Toto deVeer

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sounds fair enough

(1) commercial property, as I understand, fell earlier, so you would expect a recovery

(2) this states, as far as I read it, that residential property won't change in price much in nominal terms. With inflation cutting away at 3% a year, that leaves another 30% real falls over the next decade to come. Rents are still very cheap compared to buying.

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....

he's a pr1ck of the top order. You were totally right to mutter bovine excrement.

Yup.

Typical Tory property ramper. God help the UK post election :D

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