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Mortgage Lending Down 37 Pct Y/y In Aug -cml

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/18092009/325/mortg...-y-aug-cml.html

Mortgage lending down 37 pct y/y in Aug -CML

LONDON (Reuters) - Gross mortgage lending fell 37 percent year-on-year to 12.6 billion pounds in August, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said on Friday.

The figure represented a decline of 13 percent from July's revised total of 14.5 billion pounds.

"The likelihood of a significant pick-up in lending remains weak

:( *

* :lol:

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After a summer of false optimism for bulls, is this the first pull of the rug?

I don't understand though. I'm as beary as fvcking Paddington but even I have to admit houses in my area (surrey) have been selling well all summer. These can't all be cash buyers...can they? :blink:

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There's still plenty of suit dummies pimping property and lemmings rushing after them to enjoy the 'riches' which mortgage ownership brings.

Yes, there are still geniune good deals and sound investments, but 90% of what is out there is a bad bet.

Generally speaking though, people are still buying because they are stupid, ill-informed, or so hopelessly entrenched in the old system.

Clearing the chaff I reckon.

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Seasonally grim. 37% YoY. If it is also down 13% MoM is does show a nice trendline.

I doubt we shall see another set of real-time price increases for years.

And over 60% down from August 2007 (when there was no seasonal drop). These figures are interesting to look at:

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/files/images/GLJuly2009.png

Our market is a real mess with such low supply, and therefore tiny turnover, and exagerated increases due to cash rich buyers chasing these low stocks. People who are not genuinely interested in selling aren't going on the market as they don't want to pay for the HIP. Supply will only increase when the banks start to properly repossess and people run out of redundancy money (still got to find the cash for the HIP).

One thing is for sure, with the government talking about massive cuts at last, there is no way there is going to be any money to help people who are going to be repossessed. IMO things will turn very very nasty after the next election.

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July was 36% up on June, we're now 13% down on July

as all the bears claim when any high data comes up - noise anyone?

It could be a trend, but equally July could just have been very high for some other reason - certainly looks like noise to me

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July was 36% up on June, we're now 13% down on July

as all the bears claim when any high data comes up - noise anyone?

It could be a trend, but equally July could just have been very high for some other reason - certainly looks like noise to me

Down 37% from last year and over 60% from 2 years ago, nearly at the lows seen earlier this year (June was very low)...I think you'll find this may be the end of the mini-boom...mortgage lending has been effectively flatlining since the beginning of the year, and the summer blip is a result of Brown/BOE slapping the paddles on the chest...they have a long time to wait to see lending get anywhere near the levels required to see a sustained recovery.

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I don't understand though. I'm as beary as fvcking Paddington but even I have to admit houses in my area (surrey) have been selling well all summer. These can't all be cash buyers...can they? :blink:

My thinking is based really on limited personal experience / anecdotal evidence form the 90's crash.

Lets go back to the early part of this year - before the late spring bounce - the different pace of falls appeared to me to be split not just on a geographical basis, but it seemed that lower priced properties were falling more readily than higher priced properties.

My take on it may be a little over simplified, but it seemed like the falls were working their way up the housing market.

I lost count of people claiming their area was immune - good schools you see, quiet location, etc. I saw it merely as the higher priced properties lagging the lower priced ones.

I imagine this lag has been distorted because the money being spent over the summer has been centred on the south east / London areas. Hence they havent lagged the lower priced properties in other areas (which are still falling) because a bit of money has come in at the top and is filtering down.

All summer the headline figures in major indicators have shown a bit of a rebound / blip / bull trap. But if you dig deeper you can see that average deposits have increased significantly and average advances have fallen - nothing bullish about that. But there has been a summer of headline grabbing numbers which drives the sheeple to carry on with business as usual and makes the HPC'ers worry.

This has contributed to the people in your area thinking that the crash was a false dawn. The BBC and othe rmedia ramping property and well-meaning but misguided parents giving a nudge to the next generation have perpetuated a lie.

This figure today is the first headline grabber that says bad news. My theory may still have some legs. But only time will tell.

Edited by Nick Dastardly

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Something must be done about it before the next GE!

You may talk of war and hunger and energy prices but they can all be swept away if people are given money to buy houses that they can ill-afford.

Hard-working families deserve it.

Viva la status-quo.

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here comes another winter, waiting for utopia,

Waiting for heeeeeeell to freeze over

The The bull trap is sprung

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Doesn't this figure incluse re-mortgaging too? What is the YOY difference between mortgages for purchases?

Yes it does. Don't know the YOY for purchases only but the BBC report on the figures quotes CML as suggesting that 'stronger lending for house purchases was being balanced by lower levels of remortgaging'.

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8262418.stm

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This has contributed to the people in your area thinking that the crash was a false dawn. The BBC and othe rmedia ramping property and well-meaning but misguided parents giving a nudge to the next generation have perpetuated a lie.

Which is why when prices fall again people will be much more bearish on property. Once bitten, twice shy...

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