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Eye Of The Storm

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I kind of get the feeling we are in the eye of the storm so to speak.

The world banks flooded the markets with emergency money and low interest rates. This was not a cure but stopped the patient from dying at the scene.

Suddenly its house prices rising and spending at the shops going up, some seem to think (mainly the press?) its all over, but Im reading there will be 8 years ahead of spending cuts and tax rises.

I can only see more unemployment and further drop in assett prices.

Am I wrong?

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I will throw my hat in the ring here - I think sentiment is about to turn.

There is a masssive backlash when you keep telling people everything is just fine and dandy, and their own reality tells them so different.

In all my eavesdropping, I hear sentiment turning.

I have also seen more people drinking at lunchtime, and a lot of loathing for managers, failing companys, rats in a barrel fighting over scraps.

Hey, but that's just Shoreditch!

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Unless some extremely enlightened group is going to develop a social credit system sharpish, we're all ******ed.

Time for a cup of tea and Jimi Hendrix, Voodoo Chile.

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The UK terminates here .

Millions all trying to leave via the ferry ports at the same time.

You'll never make it!

Go now with your sanity intact!

Ignore me. That was just OH's recurring dream of 15 yrs ago.

.......................................................................

Or as the Doc. says, play Hendrix

or Bruckner? - His unfinished 9th symphony can blow minds

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Guest Steve Cook
The UK terminates here .

Millions all trying to leave via the ferry ports at the same time.

You'll never make it!

Go now with your sanity intact!

Ignore me. That was just OH's recurring dream of 15 yrs ago.

.......................................................................

Or as the Doc. says, play Hendrix

or Bruckner? - His unfinished 9th symphony can blow minds

Sadly, most are trapped

I won't be if i can help it. But then, who am i kidding?

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FWIW I agree that we are in the eye of a storm but I prefer to say that we are being lulled into believing that all the nastiness has passed and the GB has saved the world because there will be a snap election in October for the following reasons 1) The tax rises cannot be delayed until next spring as the Gilt markets will not stand it. 2) With the end of scrappage and VAT reduction coming soon the election needs to be out of the way to give GB the best chance . 3) Better to go with under 3 million unemployed than over 3 million .5) How long can the banks use the companies they have set up to purchase repossessed homes and keep them off the market ( The pips must be squeaking now)

These are just some of the reasons I believe there will be an October election .Other clues are the extraordinarily long Summer break ( until October ) This allows GB to announce the election in his speech at the conference and we go straight in to campaigning. Also there is the impression of benign economics as already mentioned . It appears that even some GPC ers are being lulled.

Not very well written I know but I hope that the basic beliefs come through

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Guest Steve Cook
FWIW I agree that we are in the eye of a storm but I prefer to say that we are being lulled into believing that all the nastiness has passed and the GB has saved the world because there will be a snap election in October for the following reasons 1) The tax rises cannot be delayed until next spring as the Gilt markets will not stand it. 2) With the end of scrappage and VAT reduction coming soon the election needs to be out of the way to give GB the best chance . 3) Better to go with under 3 million unemployed than over 3 million .5) How long can the banks use the companies they have set up to purchase repossessed homes and keep them off the market ( The pips must be squeaking now)

These are just some of the reasons I believe there will be an October election .Other clues are the extraordinarily long Summer break ( until October ) This allows GB to announce the election in his speech at the conference and we go straight in to campaigning. Also there is the impression of benign economics as already mentioned . It appears that even some GPC ers are being lulled.

Not very well written I know but I hope that the basic beliefs come through

I think this is a very plausable prediction

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FWIW I agree that we are in the eye of a storm but I prefer to say that we are being lulled into believing that all the nastiness has passed and the GB has saved the world because there will be a snap election in October for the following reasons 1) The tax rises cannot be delayed until next spring as the Gilt markets will not stand it. 2) With the end of scrappage and VAT reduction coming soon the election needs to be out of the way to give GB the best chance . 3) Better to go with under 3 million unemployed than over 3 million .5) How long can the banks use the companies they have set up to purchase repossessed homes and keep them off the market ( The pips must be squeaking now)

These are just some of the reasons I believe there will be an October election .Other clues are the extraordinarily long Summer break ( until October ) This allows GB to announce the election in his speech at the conference and we go straight in to campaigning. Also there is the impression of benign economics as already mentioned . It appears that even some GPC ers are being lulled.

Not very well written I know but I hope that the basic beliefs come through

Not enough time now for an October election.

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FWIW I agree that we are in the eye of a storm but I prefer to say that we are being lulled into believing that all the nastiness has passed and the GB has saved the world because there will be a snap election in October for the following reasons 1) The tax rises cannot be delayed until next spring as the Gilt markets will not stand it. 2) With the end of scrappage and VAT reduction coming soon the election needs to be out of the way to give GB the best chance . 3) Better to go with under 3 million unemployed than over 3 million .5) How long can the banks use the companies they have set up to purchase repossessed homes and keep them off the market ( The pips must be squeaking now)

These are just some of the reasons I believe there will be an October election .Other clues are the extraordinarily long Summer break ( until October ) This allows GB to announce the election in his speech at the conference and we go straight in to campaigning. Also there is the impression of benign economics as already mentioned . It appears that even some GPC ers are being lulled.

Not very well written I know but I hope that the basic beliefs come through

What happened to number 4, I feel cheated.

The good thing about an October election from Brown's perspective is that he can dodge the autumn pre budget statement.

But despite that Brown has a history of not making decisions. I am pretty sure he will continue that tradition.

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Sadly, most are trapped

I won't be if i can help it. But then, who am i kidding?

I'm back next month for a while.

Will I be able to get back to my banana republicana?

Uncertainty is comfortingly guaranteed. Would we have it any other way?

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
The UK terminates here .

Millions all trying to leave via the ferry ports at the same time.

You'll never make it!

Go now with your sanity intact!

Ignore me. That was just OH's recurring dream of 15 yrs ago.

.......................................................................

Or as the Doc. says, play Hendrix

or Bruckner? - His unfinished 9th symphony can blow minds

Nice tune.

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What's the protocol? How much notice can be given for an election?

IIRC Three weeks minimum from announcement to polling day?

Still time to do it in October but other factors suggest no. Nights are drawing in so if it is to be a go it will be before BST ends. Could be hoping to catch the Tories on the hop with a snap announcement!!

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What's the protocol? How much notice can be given for an election?

IIRC Three weeks minimum from announcement to polling day?

Still time to do it in October but other factors suggest no. Nights are drawing in so if it is to be a go it will be before BST ends. Could be hoping to catch the Tories on the hop with a snap announcement!!

not after the Lockerbie fiasco surely

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I kind of get the feeling we are in the eye of the storm so to speak.

The world banks flooded the markets with emergency money and low interest rates. This was not a cure but stopped the patient from dying at the scene.

Suddenly its house prices rising and spending at the shops going up, some seem to think (mainly the press?) its all over, but Im reading there will be 8 years ahead of spending cuts and tax rises.

I can only see more unemployment and further drop in assett prices.

Am I wrong?

Only time will tell, although currently I agree that we appear to be in the eye and it's dead calm.

Q1 2010 I think it will start getting interesting again. Bernanke isn't expecting anything major to happen in the "near term" I would translate as this meaning Q1 Q2 next year we'll be seeing major problems again.

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What's the protocol? How much notice can be given for an election?

IIRC Three weeks minimum from announcement to polling day?

Still time to do it in October but other factors suggest no. Nights are drawing in so if it is to be a go it will be before BST ends. Could be hoping to catch the Tories on the hop with a snap announcement!!

The Conservative party conference doesn’t finish until the 8th of October so I think a late autumn election is unlikely. Labour traditionally prefer summer elections as they struggle to get their vote out in bad weather . If a snap election were even remotely likely they’d be leaking the possibility to gauge the public’s reaction and the press would be full of it.

But, as we can’t be any more than 6 months away from the start of a general election campaign, it does seem eerily quiet on the political front - some discussion about potential cuts but the media seem to have focussed on the anniversary of Lehman’s collapse and everything else has taken a back seat. I expected there to be feverish talk of a leadership challenge etc but nothing ...

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A long slow bleed from currency devaluation accompanied by a steadily rising stock market. Many with substantial savings are looking the the stock market as the only way to preserve value. Metals are already so expensive as to scare off many investors, property still looks shaky.

See FT article on massive increase in number of small traders:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7a9acfa2-a494-11...144feabdc0.html

Perhaps we won't see much more in terms of nominal property prices but as the pound sinks those who offset the loss with investment 'gains' might see an increase in their purchasing power.

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Guest Steve Cook
A long slow bleed from currency devaluation accompanied by a steadily rising stock market. Many with substantial savings are looking the the stock market as the only way to preserve value. Metals are already so expensive as to scare off many investors, property still looks shaky.

See FT article on massive increase in number of small traders:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7a9acfa2-a494-11...144feabdc0.html

Perhaps we won't see much more in terms of nominal property prices but as the pound sinks those who offset the loss with investment 'gains' might see an increase in their purchasing power.

The sudden surge in small time investers entering the stock market rings huge great alarm bells in my head, to be honest

shoe shine boys and all that......

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[quote name='Laura' date='Sep 19 2009, 09:48 AM' post='2149942'

or Bruckner? - His unfinished 9th symphony can blow minds

We are definitely approaching a Bruckner´s 9th moment.

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The sudden surge in small time investers entering the stock market rings huge great alarm bells in my head, to be honest

shoe shine boys and all that......

Lemmings off the cliff. It is amazing how easily people are reeled in.

It does feel a bit like the calm before the storm.

Can't see there being and election this year, not unless they dispose of Gordon, in which case there really would have to be one, in spite of the green shoots narrative - however this is is not tying in with reality hence dissonance.

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Lemmings off the cliff. It is amazing how easily people are reeled in.

It does feel a bit like the calm before the storm.

Can't see there being and election this year, not unless they dispose of Gordon, in which case there really would have to be one, in spite of the green shoots narrative - however this is is not tying in with reality hence dissonance.

i think martians will invade earth disguised in human form, and as the man who saved the world Gordon will be invited aboard their mothership to discuss extraterrestrial economics with their leader. Whilst on board he will accidently see a fit martian bird swallowing a live rodent. On his return to earth he will alert the world and through his quick actions genuinely save humanity from becoming alien food. If he manages this and calls a snap election following it, he may be able to salvage a hung parliament.

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