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nobody777

£400 Silver Per Oz Within 10 To 20 Years?

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Before this very bullish possibility is dismissed consider the facts below.

1 Silver follows gold so to speak

2 GBP is in a terminal decline in value.

3 Gold is fairly valued or under valued and silver is very undervalued to gold.

point 1 is understood so what is gold worth?

Gold is money and was so until its break with the USD in 1971 then it became an asset class traded as such and in 1980 it spiked at about $850 the spike price is worthless but the year 1980 is a top and like all bubbles overshoot and undershoot so find a fair value estimate consider a few years before the top and a few years after the top to be a fair value and I estimate a fair value of gold in 1980 of $250

I am using my UK general basic real inflation of doubling of prices every 10 years in things like petrol heating bills council tax housing costs etc.

Using my model for uk inflation for gold price in USD

1980 = $250

1990 = $500

2000 = $1000

2010 = $2000

2020 = $4000

2030 = $8000

These are my personal views and clearly gold is a world asset etc but $4000 per oz for gold in 10 to 20 years isnt silly and can be a conservative valuation.

My model is for gold to hit $4000 within the next 20 years because of the above

In the early 1900s to the best of my knowlege the GBP was worth 4 or 5 US dollars this is when the UK was an economic power house over the past 100 years or so the UK has been imploding and now hardly anything is being produced here and we have massive debts and the devaluation of the GBP is going one way thats down as it has been over the last 100 years and only a few months ago it was as low as $1..35 to the USD and the GBP is down a third to the Euro over the last few years.

Because of the above I am guessing parity to the USD within 10 to 20 years assuming the USD is still the reserve currency but the GBP will devalue over time.

For me $4000 gold a par with the USD in 10 to 20 years are very odds on.

The price gold silver ratio is a hard one but a 10 to 1 ratio is my prediction and it can be achieved within 10 to 20 years but the time frame is a guess but down its going for the following reason below.

To the best of my knowlege their is 15 times more silver than gold in the planet and when gold and silver was money 15 to 1 was the rule because of this.

Currently gold at about $1000 and silver at $17 is about 60 to 1 and looking at the charts this has been all over the place but 40 or 50 to 1 has been the kind of average over the last few decades but the forces pushing it to 10 to 1 are very powerful.

Most gold ever mined is still around about 98% of it and its about 160.000 or 170.000 tons of it but silver this gets used up in tvs phones etc and the amount ever mined is being used up and lost I dont know how much silver is around above ground but I can safely assume its a lot less than 15 times the gold amount and the more electric things being made the more silver is needed and lost and I am to beleve silver is the best electrical conductor the price gold silver ratio should represent this fact and I expect it to do so and a 10 to 1 is very fair so to sum up.

So gold at $4000 with GBP at par with the USD and a 10 to 1 gold silver ratio is £400 for 1oz of silver so at about £10.50 today which is up 20% over the last 4 weeks looks like a good no brainer to buy and hold and a good chance not only to preserve your wealth but increase it too.

I am no expert and clearly many things can go against this and the info used is just my personal indication of things I have read of the net and may be off base but I have put a lot of my money in this investment model and its doing fine and it gives me confidence when things go wrong as they will but I am in this for the long term and short term gains or losses isnt important.

I just thought I would share my views with people.

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Who knows

I have just started buying a bit of silver but looking back it has been an extremely poor investment for years. Its not even a good store of wealth as its too bulky and as a trade it is ruined by VAT.

The only reason I'm buying is because I like the feel of Morgan Dollars and I use them to pay my son for cutting the lawn. (I'm trying to get him to understand that fiat money is potentially worthless)

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I expect to see the average house price in the UK to slide when measured in oz of gold or oz of silver for the next generation or so.

Measures of house prices denominated in £ may rise as the Pound loses value relative to "stuff" but this is a bit of a false test.

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Who knows

I have just started buying a bit of silver but looking back it has been an extremely poor investment for years. Its not even a good store of wealth as its too bulky and as a trade it is ruined by VAT.

The only reason I'm buying is because I like the feel of Morgan Dollars and I use them to pay my son for cutting the lawn. (I'm trying to get him to understand that fiat money is potentially worthless)

is it working

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is it working

I don't know yet.

He has been getting lessions in personal finance at school but all they taught him was how to use a debit card and what a cheque was. It was a wasted opportunity to discuss the true nature of money and its history.

So I took it upon myself to try and show him that cheques and paper money are different from real money and I now value everything in sovereigns and pay him in silver. He still gets govmt issue trading tokens to buy stuff as he needs it so he is not having to trade in real money.

Eccentric I know but it makes him think a little more deeply. I was 50 before I began to understand the nature of fiat money.

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I don't know yet.

He has been getting lessions in personal finance at school but all they taught him was how to use a debit card and what a cheque was. It was a wasted opportunity to discuss the true nature of money and its history.

So I took it upon myself to try and show him that cheques and paper money are different from real money and I now value everything in sovereigns and pay him in silver. He still gets govmt issue trading tokens to buy stuff as he needs it so he is not having to trade in real money.

Eccentric I know but it makes him think a little more deeply. I was 50 before I began to understand the nature of fiat money.

i dont think its eccentric - i think its right

my 7 year old daughter has developed an interest in old coins (without any influence from me)

i was 36 before i began to understand fiat money - and after studying accountancy and financial planning - strangely enough it was never mentioned in either of those qualifications

this was the book that opened my eyes

http://www.amazon.com/What-Government-Mone...r/dp/0945466447

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i dont think its eccentric - i think its right

my 7 year old daughter has developed an interest in old coins (without any influence from me)

i was 36 before i began to understand fiat money - and after studying accountancy and financial planning - strangely enough it was never mentioned in either of those qualifications

this was the book that opened my eyes

http://www.amazon.com/What-Government-Mone...r/dp/0945466447

My 9 year old daughter can name all the Queen Victoria and QEII heads on coins and knows what the mint marks stand for.

She also knows the wear pattern on St George coins and tells me whether the calf and helmet are worn (garter on calf is first to wear IMO)

I'm trying to find long and short tail St George sovereigns to show her but I havent been able to recognise these myself yet.

The older boy is not interested in the coins so much, just their value.

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My 9 year old daughter can name all the Queen Victoria and QEII heads on coins and knows what the mint marks stand for.

She also knows the wear pattern on St George coins and tells me whether the calf and helmet are worn (garter on calf is first to wear IMO)

I'm trying to find long and short tail St George sovereigns to show her but I havent been able to recognise these myself yet.

The older boy is not interested in the coins so much, just their value.

is it this one

http://www.goldsovereigns.co.uk/1891sovereignshorttail.html

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The investment banks have been keeping the price down in the paper market for many years, and accumulating physical bullion on the quiet.

A reason why the Chinese will ban the export of gold and silver.

Gold and silver are likely to be the asset that will back a new global currency.

When the bankers inventories and stock piles are satisfied, they'll let the price rise, and sell the metal back to the public during a mania, and the cycle is complete.

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Before this very bullish possibility is dismissed consider the facts below.

1 Silver follows gold so to speak

2 GBP is in a terminal decline in value.

3 Gold is fairly valued or under valued and silver is very undervalued to gold.

point 1 is understood so what is gold worth?

Gold is money and was so until its break with the USD in 1971 then it became an asset class traded as such and in 1980 it spiked at about $850 the spike price is worthless but the year 1980 is a top and like all bubbles overshoot and undershoot so find a fair value estimate consider a few years before the top and a few years after the top to be a fair value and I estimate a fair value of gold in 1980 of $250

I am using my UK general basic real inflation of doubling of prices every 10 years in things like petrol heating bills council tax housing costs etc.

Using my model for uk inflation for gold price in USD

1980 = $250

1990 = $500

2000 = $1000

2010 = $2000

2020 = $4000

2030 = $8000

These are my personal views and clearly gold is a world asset etc but $4000 per oz for gold in 10 to 20 years isnt silly and can be a conservative valuation.

My model is for gold to hit $4000 within the next 20 years because of the above

In the early 1900s to the best of my knowlege the GBP was worth 4 or 5 US dollars this is when the UK was an economic power house over the past 100 years or so the UK has been imploding and now hardly anything is being produced here and we have massive debts and the devaluation of the GBP is going one way thats down as it has been over the last 100 years and only a few months ago it was as low as $1..35 to the USD and the GBP is down a third to the Euro over the last few years.

Because of the above I am guessing parity to the USD within 10 to 20 years assuming the USD is still the reserve currency but the GBP will devalue over time.

For me $4000 gold a par with the USD in 10 to 20 years are very odds on.

The price gold silver ratio is a hard one but a 10 to 1 ratio is my prediction and it can be achieved within 10 to 20 years but the time frame is a guess but down its going for the following reason below.

To the best of my knowlege their is 15 times more silver than gold in the planet and when gold and silver was money 15 to 1 was the rule because of this.

Currently gold at about $1000 and silver at $17 is about 60 to 1 and looking at the charts this has been all over the place but 40 or 50 to 1 has been the kind of average over the last few decades but the forces pushing it to 10 to 1 are very powerful.

Most gold ever mined is still around about 98% of it and its about 160.000 or 170.000 tons of it but silver this gets used up in tvs phones etc and the amount ever mined is being used up and lost I dont know how much silver is around above ground but I can safely assume its a lot less than 15 times the gold amount and the more electric things being made the more silver is needed and lost and I am to beleve silver is the best electrical conductor the price gold silver ratio should represent this fact and I expect it to do so and a 10 to 1 is very fair so to sum up.

So gold at $4000 with GBP at par with the USD and a 10 to 1 gold silver ratio is £400 for 1oz of silver so at about £10.50 today which is up 20% over the last 4 weeks looks like a good no brainer to buy and hold and a good chance not only to preserve your wealth but increase it too.

I am no expert and clearly many things can go against this and the info used is just my personal indication of things I have read of the net and may be off base but I have put a lot of my money in this investment model and its doing fine and it gives me confidence when things go wrong as they will but I am in this for the long term and short term gains or losses isnt important.

I just thought I would share my views with people.

:lol::lol: That bit really wasn't necessary.

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The investment banks have been keeping the price down in the paper market for many years, and accumulating physical bullion on the quiet.

A reason why the Chinese will ban the export of gold and silver.

Gold and silver are likely to be the asset that will back a new global currency.

When the bankers inventories and stock piles are satisfied, they'll let the price rise, and sell the metal back to the public during a mania, and the cycle is complete.

I am convinced that the Chinese have, for at least two years, been stockpiling gold, rare earths, and possibly silver. If I were them, I'd first have been buying other countries' production, and then when I couldn't get enough that way, or it looked like commentators were going to realise that it wasn't just wealthy "Hong Kong businessmen on trips abroad", then I would have started buying from any govt stupid enough to sell (remind you of anyone) and eventually, I would have discussed buying up my own country's production, banning the sale abroad (i.e. forcing my own country's mines to sell to me) until I felt the time was right.

Finally, I would then allow my own citizens to buy the stuff, increasing demand and raising the price in a way that the other manipulators couldn't stop, and keeping the bullion within the borders of "Our Land".

Fill your boots, people of the Han (or any other province of China, for that matter).

We're not cynical, we just know what they are like...

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I full expect £50-100 silver. £400 may be pushing it a little!

I agree it may be pushing it but the purpose of this thread is to offer Silvers possible price in the future which can turn out much differet and to be honest I could make an even more bullish case and clearly if prices did shoot up the amount of scrap sold to the market would be a real headwind.

I think we agree its undervalued at about £10.50 today and a 4 or 5 fold increase in capital which is the low end of your estimate is a good return in todays markets and I have added a few hundred 1oz ingots from an auction today at around spot.

Its my pension so 20 years is fine for me and fairly risk free but like anything a downside risk is possible which is why I am not all in.

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