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mosstrooper

The Next Bubble

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Will the West join in the far east stock market bubble. ? I'm gettin an uneasy feeling it might be time to pile in. It obviosuly doesnt make sense but we live in a bubble world these days.

Or am I barmy ?

I am a house price bear but if the sheeple get whipped into a stock market frenzy i'd hate to miss out.....

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Will the West join in the far east stock market bubble. ? I'm gettin an uneasy feeling it might be time to pile in. It obviosuly doesnt make sense but we live in a bubble world these days.

Or am I barmy ?

I am a house price bear but if the sheeple get whipped into a stock market frenzy i'd hate to miss out.....

in my opinion the stock market is already in a bubble and has been for a good 10 to 15 years on any long term (last 100 years) historical valuation model. The trouble is alot of people dont tend to look at more than a decade when analysing long term performance and the norm. Id be very suprised if when the cr@p hits the fan and house price crash proper gets under way the stock market doesnt fall by a lot larger percentage, there is huge credit leverage in it (far more than housing)and has been for well over a decade

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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i know it doesnt make sense as share prices SHOULD be related to profit and dividend of companies etc ...BUT if the stock markets start beleiving the recession is over due to constant brainwashing then anything could happen.

I took my money out of shares just before last years bust and thought i had dodged a bullet. But now if i'd left it id' be in front again at todays level. I beleive it could go a lot lot higher if the greed and fear drivers go into overdive.

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What you're seeing is cash chasing anything. These aren't bubbles. The next bubble is still a while away. No idea what is will be, I like the idea of the Magic Money Token fofp used in this famous thread.

The next MMT will not be what you expect. You will start to notice it in a few years from now and you will think it's great. It really will be different that time. Like it always has been.

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I bet theres a lot of people with spare cash that bought into the recent house price "rally" will be kicking themselves they didnt plow it into shares...I know a few older ones that bought slave boxes with 100% cash for their retirement that will be looking and thinking they should have bought shares.

The stock market could be approaching "Lift -Off " stage. I get that feeling its still gonna go higher possibly significantly. Its a gamble which could pay off big time.

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The stock market could be approaching "Lift -Off " stage. I get that feeling its still gonna go higher possibly significantly. Its a gamble which could pay off big time.

How, the stock market bubble of the past decade was driven by millions of people putting their spare cash, pensions and such-like into shares... those millions are now in debt and/or broke.

Where is the cash going to come from?

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How, the stock market bubble of the past decade was driven by millions of people putting their spare cash, pensions and such-like into shares... those millions are now in debt and/or broke.

Where is the cash going to come from?

Wherever the printing presses are located.

In all seriousness, I've been selling stocks over the past week. This bs can't last. The fundamental news is generally bad, people are still losing jobs. Once the nights start drawing in then... :lol:

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How, the stock market bubble of the past decade was driven by millions of people putting their spare cash, pensions and such-like into shares... those millions are now in debt and/or broke.

Where is the cash going to come from?

Im getting .50% interest on my ISA .... thats where and whilst it sits there they are devalueing it daily "printy printy"

So I might as well buy something....

Are we at the start of daddy bears "rush for assets" phase?

Edited by Winston Wolf

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Im getting .50% interest on my ISA .... thats where and whilst it sits there they are devalueing it daily "printy printy"

So I might as well buy something....

Are we at the start of daddy bears "rush for assets" phase?

Move it to a tax-paying savings account. I am getting 3% with tescos, in wifes name, netting 2.6% monthly, paid annually.

Sainsburys are offering something similar. If you are willing to not touch it for 12 months, there are some pretty good deals out there imho.

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I bet theres a lot of people with spare cash that bought into the recent house price "rally" will be kicking themselves they didnt plow it into shares...I know a few older ones that bought slave boxes with 100% cash for their retirement that will be looking and thinking they should have bought shares...

yeah, i don't know, going on a sample of one [my mother] who bought a small seaside flat for cash in summer 2008 [paying a 10% markup over what the flipper who'd bought the same place the previous summer had paid, talk about savvy] i suspect that many of them are terrified of 'risky' stocks and genuinely believe that 'bricks and mortar' has some kind of magical risk-free property.

but just generally, yes, the recent rally in share prices has been astonishing. the FTSE 100 is up 40%, beginning of Q1 to end of Q2, the same kind of gain in six months that you'd have got by buying average pwoperdee for cash in jan 2004 and selling it in summer 2007 [three and a half years later].

i find stock market bubbles & herd mentality all too easy to understand, buying and selling is so easy, they're amazingly liquid, and the returns you can make are truly spectacular. this little rally will end in tears of course but whether that starts in two months or two years is impossible to say...

Edited by the flying pig

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Move it to a tax-paying savings account. I am getting 3% with tescos, in wifes name, netting 2.6% monthly, paid annually.

Sainsburys are offering something similar. If you are willing to not touch it for 12 months, there are some pretty good deals out there imho.

2.6% is no good to me, I can make more than that gambling (although it would be harder work and more stressfull)

Thanks for the pointer though.

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2.6% is no good to me, I can make more than that gambling (although it would be harder work and more stressfull)

Thanks for the pointer though.

You might want to think about Belize-it's had a some bad press in the past but one or two good banks now and paying over 3% PA.

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The stock market could be approaching "Lift -Off " stage. I get that feeling its still gonna go higher possibly significantly. Its a gamble which could pay off big time.

I cant see this myself and am confident of a turn back down at any time (but then i am short so have a VI, but for me there are clear indicators that this is a bear rally

1)the Ftse dell from 6700 to 3500 and is now back to 5200 (circa 60% retrace - that is a standard retrace of the down leg and is completely normal in the markets, in fact it would be unusual if you didnt have at least a 50% retrace of the previous move

2) The nature of bear markets are speed & volatility because of fear, If 3600 was the start of a new bull market in equities it is highly unlikely to have rallied this quick this fast. This is classic bear market rally speed

3) This is more subjective but something clearly observed in markets over all time frames. The move down was completely impulsive in its nature and very neat and uniform - This is a dead give away that the move is in the direction of the real trend. Compare it graphically to the 2000 Bear market, the fall is completely different in structure and not impulsive and uniform

The rally, if it is the start of a new bull market should be neat impulsive and uniform in its accent, march to May is in no way uniform and has a clear ABC structure, ie it is choppy and correctional, completely different to the Feb to June 04 rally which is uniform and tidy in its accent.

These are all pretty clear warnings of the nature of this rally IMO

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I cant see this myself and am confident of a turn back down at any time (but then i am short so have a VI, but for me there are clear indicators that this is a bear rally

1)the Ftse dell from 6700 to 3500 and is now back to 5200 (circa 60% retrace - that is a standard retrace of the down leg and is completely normal in the markets, in fact it would be unusual if you didnt have at least a 50% retrace of the previous move

2) The nature of bear markets are speed & volatility because of fear, If 3600 was the start of a new bull market in equities it is highly unlikely to have rallied this quick this fast. This is classic bear market rally speed

3) This is more subjective but something clearly observed in markets over all time frames. The move down was completely impulsive in its nature and very neat and uniform - This is a dead give away that the move is in the direction of the real trend. Compare it graphically to the 2000 Bear market, the fall is completely different in structure and not impulsive and uniform

The rally, if it is the start of a new bull market should be neat impulsive and uniform in its accent, march to May is in no way uniform and has a clear ABC structure, ie it is choppy and correctional, completely different to the Feb to June 04 rally which is uniform and tidy in its accent.

These are all pretty clear warnings of the nature of this rally IMO

I like the cut of your jib. I would have just said "The Gathering Storm". ;)

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Move it to a tax-paying savings account. I am getting 3% with tescos, in wifes name, netting 2.6% monthly, paid annually.

Sainsburys are offering something similar. If you are willing to not touch it for 12 months, there are some pretty good deals out there imho.

3% gross per annum is not "pretty good". You'd be pretty unlucky to pick a share that doesnt beat that sometime within the next month if that's what you want.

The disturbing thing about holding cash in these products is that you are financing your competition in the housing market.

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I think what separates this situation from others in recent history is that interest rates are so low, and therefore one of the main reasons for the rise in Equities is that there isn't a viable alternative to equities right now.

In March or April this year, an investor may have considered bonds or a savings account giving a 3% return, but not now.

The way the market is at the moment, you could get that 3% return in a week, let alone a year that you would be looking at if you put it in a savings account.

I think the other major thing, and probably the most significant thing that's pushing equities higher is the market is now pricing in a hell of a lot of inflation.

Although the fundamentals are still bad, they were a lot worse 9 months ago, but we're still here, we've survived the financial crisis, companies and governments are showing growth (even though the figures are fudged and based on printed money and stimuluses), sure, unemployment is still rising, but it always does, it is one of the last things to recover.

My question to those prediciting a stock market crash would be, if you had 1 million to invest, where else, right now would you put your money if not in stocks, if you were expecting a significant bout of inflation in the next few years ?

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I think what separates this situation from others in recent history is that interest rates are so low, and therefore one of the main reasons for the rise in Equities is that there isn't a viable alternative to equities right now.

In March or April this year, an investor may have considered bonds or a savings account giving a 3% return, but not now.

The way the market is at the moment, you could get that 3% return in a week, let alone a year that you would be looking at if you put it in a savings account.

I think the other major thing, and probably the most significant thing that's pushing equities higher is the market is now pricing in a hell of a lot of inflation.

Although the fundamentals are still bad, they were a lot worse 9 months ago, but we're still here, we've survived the financial crisis, companies and governments are showing growth (even though the figures are fudged and based on printed money and stimuluses), sure, unemployment is still rising, but it always does, it is one of the last things to recover.

My question to those prediciting a stock market crash would be, if you had 1 million to invest, where else, right now would you put your money if not in stocks, if you were expecting a significant bout of inflation in the next few years ?

With the high risk of that one million becoming 400,000 in a matter of days sometime in the next 6 months I think I would stay in cash.

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How, the stock market bubble of the past decade was driven by millions of people putting their spare cash, pensions and such-like into shares... those millions are now in debt and/or broke.

Where is the cash going to come from?

Its the stock markets go at a bubble. Property has burst & physical bullion is not as easy as on-line trading shares. There have been strong gains since March lows - a touch of main stream media hype about 150% gains within 6 months could launce the ftse - but what sector? Last time around it was dot-coms! How about mining companies to cash in on metals & gold? No - how about banks? No - they are part owned by Labour! How about house builders - you can't loose when it comes to property?

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still a firm believer in cash.

"they" need as many cash rich people to get sucked in as possible, with everyone taking a little hit. A nice, slow, controlled deleveraging process.

Dont get sucked into a bubble, the rug could get pulled out at any time.

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I think what separates this situation from others in recent history is that interest rates are so low, and therefore one of the main reasons for the rise in Equities is that there isn't a viable alternative to equities right now.

In March or April this year, an investor may have considered bonds or a savings account giving a 3% return, but not now.

The way the market is at the moment, you could get that 3% return in a week, let alone a year that you would be looking at if you put it in a savings account.

I think the other major thing, and probably the most significant thing that's pushing equities higher is the market is now pricing in a hell of a lot of inflation.

Although the fundamentals are still bad, they were a lot worse 9 months ago, but we're still here, we've survived the financial crisis, companies and governments are showing growth (even though the figures are fudged and based on printed money and stimuluses), sure, unemployment is still rising, but it always does, it is one of the last things to recover.

My question to those prediciting a stock market crash would be, if you had 1 million to invest, where else, right now would you put your money if not in stocks, if you were expecting a significant bout of inflation in the next few years ?

Good question! Where would you invest £1 million? Everything can be charted to give long term gains regardless of entry point. Where would you invest £1 million? shares are at a high - can they keep going? property has flat lined for months - will it continue flat or drop? Golds at a high - where now? Do you give it to banks who will either hord it or gamble on one of the prevously mentioned? Where would you put £1million

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Will the West join in the far east stock market bubble. ? I'm gettin an uneasy feeling it might be time to pile in. It obviosuly doesnt make sense but we live in a bubble world these days.

Or am I barmy ?

I am a house price bear but if the sheeple get whipped into a stock market frenzy i'd hate to miss out.....

Here's an anecdote for you.

A couple of days after Lehman went BK I bought a couple thousand Lehman shares @ 20 cents each. They were traded despite the bankruptcy on the assumption that after the creditors were repaid there might be something left for shareholders, a silly idea of course but I do things like that sometimes, if only for a laugh. Since then, as the full extent of Lehman losses were brought to the surface I assumed this to be a complete loss and forgot about them.

But recently I've been watching them move up and today, they show a _profit_ of 7% from the date of purchase!!!

If that is not a bubble I don't know what is.

Starting last week until today I've been putting a toe in the market, buying shares in Citigroup, Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, the most rubbish outfits I could think of (well there was AIG but that's just asking too much), based on what I see as totally manufactured bubbles in just about everything. I now expect the property market in the US to accelerate upwards based on the old trusted mechanics of artificially shrunk supply (a shortage of land and housing, in the US?) and artificially expanded demand (pent-up demand?).

I wouldn't try that in the UK, I don't think the UK can do as much as the US due to the reserve currency effect so whatever we do here will fall short of what is needed.

This is one crazy bubble IMO and I fully expect this to blow up in somebody's face, hopefully not me. I expect it could be me, I'm coming late into this party, but I think the odds are good.

This is not investment advice BTW, I make my own mistakes and stupid moves, you make your own :) .

Edited by williamdb

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