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grizzly bear

When Is The Next Phase Of The Crash Coming?

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how do you know what they are SELLING for.

Some from www.ourproperty.co.uk website. Impact of summer bounce starting to show there. Sold signs all over the place.

Another went on market at mad price, probably around 20% more that it would have sold for in 2007, agent called me as just what we are looking for and it turns out already offer in at what I think would have been good 2007 price (£1.25m for 4 bed semi that needs gutting!) but vendor holding out for more. So there are people prepared to pay 2007 prices.

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i think the problem is the next phase of the crash is in the value of your pounds , the supply of houses is fairly fixed now that all development is taking a back seat , meanwhile a new 175 billio pounds has been magiced into existance and plenty more where that came from , as soon as prices stopped falling fast punters with piles of cash who thought they were going to lose the lot when the banks started going under are looking for hard assets , I think the next 10 years will be an ugly mess but I dont think it will mean you get to buy your dream house for peanuts ....

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My search area South Cambs is back to within 10% of peak. Agents doing block bookings only and very little for sale.

I've sold (STC) two probate houses in Bucks/MK at 20% off peak very quickly.

VMR.

I have to concur that the madness is returning.

I am aware of a probate sale of a very small 3 bed detached in Redhill, Surrey priced at £330,000 that had 5 potential buyers fighting over it. The sale went to cash buyers (STR getting back in?) for the quick sale.

The house is a classic widow's wreck and needs another £50K spent in it.

By many measures property is 50% over-valued, but the people ain't listening and the British love of bricks and mortar goes on unabated.

I fear we have seen the bottom.

Woody

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I get updates from houseprices , actual sold prices for 2 SE towns and

1.most property sells for 2004 prices,

2. odd one out sells for 2007 price,

3. quite a few sold properties are returning to market even after 3/4 months

I got cash and I`m thinking of buying a house during winter/spring for 2003-04 prices.

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I'm getting a bit frustrated, we have STR fund sold probably for peak minus 10% in Sept 08 and now are finding houses are selling for peak prices again (NW London). When is phase 2 coming?

You gambled - presumably you can afford to lose.

Perhaps you should buy now what you can now afford?

Or perhaps you should have the courage to stay out of the market for another year?

No-one said STRing was going to be easy. Are you enjoying renting? Or is the first years rent now finished and you're now looking at yet another grotty rented property?

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now are finding houses are selling for peak prices again (NW London). When is phase 2 coming?

In my road (SE large town suburb) a house came on with asking price 6% off peak, a week later now showing "SOLD" (obviously not sure at what price)

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Depends on the property.

There is a glut of flats in NW London that ain't going nowhere for the prices they are on.

Peoperty Bee shows small drops in price (they all end up at the same price) and they all slowly trickle down.

Now and then some loony will come along and buy one, which makes the rest think that is the market value.

Couple months later someone drops price (probably against advice) and then they all have to follow.

Repeat and rinse until the loonies have run out (although the country are breeding more as we speak).

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You gambled - presumably you can afford to lose.

Perhaps you should buy now what you can now afford?

Or perhaps you should have the courage to stay out of the market for another year?

No-one said STRing was going to be easy. Are you enjoying renting? Or is the first years rent now finished and you're now looking at yet another grotty rented property?

Our rental house is great perfect location, and rent is reasonable and we can stay for as long as we want. SO from that perspective STR is great and happy renting.

Yes we gambled and can't afford to loose all our STR fund, but yes its buying power might decrease .... we moved because we needed more space and to be near school not to play market.... I do have courage to stay out of market for bit more, we almost had opportunity to buy house when we sold (we offered on it and then they accepted only after we signed into 1 year rental contract)... its still for sale but they are asking a lot more as they did it up (they flooded it and made big insurance claim!!!)

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Our rental house is great perfect location, and rent is reasonable and we can stay for as long as we want. SO from that perspective STR is great and happy renting.

Yes we gambled and can't afford to loose all our STR fund, but yes its buying power might decrease .... we moved because we needed more space and to be near school not to play market.... I do have courage to stay out of market for bit more, we almost had opportunity to buy house when we sold (we offered on it and then they accepted only after we signed into 1 year rental contract)... its still for sale but they are asking a lot more as they did it up (they flooded it and made big insurance claim!!!)

STRing is difficult - I know because we tried in 2005 and failed. Your timing is much better so hopefully things will work out.

Personally I think prices will fall again in 2010 and will keep falling as the effects of higher taxes hit consumers. However I thought London prices had peaked in 2004 so what do I know! We lost about £200K. (Adding rent paid out, change in selling price between what we achieved and what the flat sold for 18 months later, and various bits and bobs). Given that we bought again in 2006 we're probably sitting on a paper loss of £150K too!

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STRing is difficult - I know because we tried in 2005 and failed. Your timing is much better so hopefully things will work out.

Personally I think prices will fall again in 2010 and will keep falling as the effects of higher taxes hit consumers. However I thought London prices had peaked in 2004 so what do I know! We lost about £200K. (Adding rent paid out, change in selling price between what we achieved and what the flat sold for 18 months later, and various bits and bobs). Given that we bought again in 2006 we're probably sitting on a paper loss of £150K too!

Ouch! Brave man for fessing up though.

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Ouch! Brave man for fessing up though.

Paper loss is easy to cope with - we bought our "final" home so have no intention of moving.

In fact even the £200K "loss" isn't worth worrying about. We made decisions which turned out incorrect but at the time we were happy with our chosen course of action. Most of the £200K was the ridiculous price increases in London 2005 - 2006.

People should realise the inherent dangers before thinking about STR. Timing is absolutely key.

If you believe most on here it's a no brainer, and easy to make shed loads. Lots seemed to have STR'd between 2002 and 2005. Anyone who did must be hurting financially. Except of course all these property experts are also financial geniuses who bought gold, or gold mining shares.

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I'm getting a bit frustrated, we have STR fund sold probably for peak minus 10% in Sept 08 and now are finding houses are selling for peak prices again (NW London). When is phase 2 coming?

Same in Northfield W13, a 3 bed terrace was selling at 370k last year, now same houses are selling at 440k within days!

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Same in Northfield W13, a 3 bed terrace was selling at 370k last year, now same houses are selling at 440k within days!

Although to put that into perspective I sold a 1 bed flat in W13 in 2001 for £200K.

So last years price of £370k looks a relative bargain! And perhaps that is what todays potential buyers are thinking.

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Things look different around here (Gloucestershire). Several houses approaching their first anniversary on the market and ones that were 'under offer' appearing again as 'available', chain collapse I would assume as it is after a lapse of sevral months in cases. It is true that there are not many price drops and not much new comming onto the market.

My diagnosis : stagnation not recovery

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Things look different around here (Gloucestershire). Several houses approaching their first anniversary on the market and ones that were 'under offer' appearing again as 'available', chain collapse I would assume as it is after a lapse of sevral months in cases. It is true that there are not many price drops and not much new comming onto the market.

My diagnosis : stagnation not recovery

Agreed it remains to be seen as to whether the London centric "boom" peters out before the next leg down. Or whether it ripples out through the outer home counties to South Midlands etc etc etc.

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I'm also in Gloucestershire......lots of houses that have been on the market for 6 months + price not moved.

Even worst is all the ea's leaving all their adverts online, with 'sstc' plastered across them. Surely if your buying a house, the house should off the market asap! Are they doing this to make their books look bigger?? its quite annoying.

Jan 25 4pm <<<< is when the phase of the crash is coming (i havent got a clue - its just a guess)

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I'm getting a bit frustrated, we have STR fund sold probably for peak minus 10% in Sept 08 and now are finding houses are selling for peak prices again (NW London). When is phase 2 coming?

There is absolutely no sane or logical reason to expect property prices in the UK to go up any further for any longer. There is every reason to expect further falls and not small ones. The grim truth of the financial state of the UK economy and it's appalling debt suggests things can only get worse. We have experienced QE and the associated VI hype that was hoped would start the recovery. QE was a last resort strategy with nothing left if it failed. The facts and the truth of the matter is we have extremely hard and miserable times ahead of us. The pound is falling, unemployment growing, outgoings far exceeding incomes, debts to repay, severe cuts to be made and maybe the IMF soon calling the shots, so why do you think you should buy now? It is quite possible round two will be worse than round one, keep you nerve and wait another 6 months to see the real situation. We have just had the result of a global housing ponzi scheme come to light and prices are not going to stay at these levels. Why do you think the banks STILL won't lend to other banks?

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No recovery round these parts.

Constant process of houses coming up for sale at lower and lower prices.

Did have a spate of SSTCs late spring / early summer - not yet translated in to completed sales, in fact I had a rightmove alert today with 4 of them back on the market!

The crash continues with no change of momentum.

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I keep an eye on E14 and St Albans and they have hardly dropped at all.

Sure you can get a shabby property cheaper than they once were but not the good ones or ones in a good area. :angry:

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I'm getting a bit frustrated, we have STR fund sold probably for peak minus 10% in Sept 08 and now are finding houses are selling for peak prices again (NW London). When is phase 2 coming?

Likewise in East London/Essex. Very frustrating. Four months ago things were looking promising and all the tosh which people spout out about 'gettting on the ladder before its out of reach' had died. Now all the jokers have come out of the woodwork again talking the usual c**p about how FTBs have to move or they'll 'miss the boat'.

Logic says that this mini-boom must be running on fumes but unfortunately the Chuckle Brothers, Gordon and Merv keep pouring more gas in the tank! The question is can they fool enough people into thinking that its a real recovery? (And even if they do will unemployment/govt debt/higher interest rates scupper expose that recovery). Surely it's just putting off the inevitable.....I say wait, you just might have to wait longer than anticipated.

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I think that you could buy in five years time for similar money + 10% total inflation. I think that low IRs and low inflation are here to stay. If I am wrong, flame me in five years.

Sadly a large number of the STR brigade, myself included, have lost a lot of money on a bet that did not pay off thanks to low IRs and QE. I doubt that many have gained. Take your medicine!

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Things look different around here (Gloucestershire). Several houses approaching their first anniversary on the market and ones that were 'under offer' appearing again as 'available', chain collapse I would assume as it is after a lapse of sevral months in cases. It is true that there are not many price drops and not much new comming onto the market.

My diagnosis : stagnation not recovery

Same wherever I look. I regularly travel between Devon, Dorset, Wilts & Hampshire - and there are many properties that have been sitting for sale for 1 year or more. Friends and aquaintances are in the same boat.

Question: How does the average FTB earning £16-23k "afford" the "average" property at £180-200k?

Answer: With a LIAR LOAN.

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