interestrateripoff Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8258407.stm European and Asian shares have risen strongly, buoyed by US stocks closing at their highest level so far in 2009 overnight on Wall Street.Lifted by the latest signs of economic recovery in the US, the UK's FTSE 100 index was up 0.8% in early trading, while Japan's Nikkei ended up 0.5%. The rises came after America's Dow Jones index closed Tuesday up 0.6%, to its highest level since October 2008. Investor sentiment was boosted by a big rise in US retail sales in August. Confidence was further increased by comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the US economy was now "very likely over". The FTSE's rise was mirrored across Europe, where Germany's Dax had added 0.7% and France's Cac was up 1%. The main Australian share index had earlier closed up 2.2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.8% and India's Sensex had advanced 1.1% in afternoon exchanges. Cautious note Official data showing that US retail sales rose 2.7% in August was warmly welcomed by the markets, because consumer spending is central to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of US economic activity. While the big rise was helped by the US "cash for clunkers" car scrappage scheme, which has now ended, retail sales excluding cars also increased by 1.1%, beating market expectations of a 0.4% gain. However, despite the share rises, Mr Benanke warned that the US economy still faced some hurdles before it could exit recession. "It's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time," he said. So maybe we could see the FTSE at around 5400 by the end of Sept? Clearly not 6000 as I queried here, which was more down to me making up where we had started in the beginning of Aug for some unknown reason and amazingly no drugs where involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8258407.stmSo maybe we could see the FTSE at around 5400 by the end of Sept? I'm sure there will be plenty of tops called between now and then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Think its come too far too fast but I thought 4,900 was a short-term top and that went. Still, my pension fund is looking pretty healthy today. All those units bought at around 4,000 are paying off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 I'm sure there will be plenty of tops called between now and then I hope you paid heed to some of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 The more it rises the higher the chance of a really big slump next month IMHO. Chickens will be coming home to roost shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oneStepTwoStep Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 6000 anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 I'm sure there will be plenty of tops called between now and then Do you ever sell, or are you the Warren Buffett of HPC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 I hope you paid heed to some of them. I recall they started when the FTSE was just over 4000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 I recall they started when the FTSE was just over 4000. And? What's your point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Noel,you're the person to ask about credit markets.Since you gave me the heads up on the free offering from markit,I've been following it.http://www.markit.com/cds/cds-page.html Can I ask to what extent do CDS affect the underlying cost of money for said company or nation state,ie if they widen,does it draw bond yields higher automatically?Or do CDS spreads widen if bond yields move hgiher? Also,is there a normal level of CDS exposure to say market cap/liabilities eg Barclays has $4.2 billion net notional,yet HSBC only have $2 billion.You would have assumed HSBC would have the larger. also,I know this is going to sound really dumb,but the net notional,does that pertain to the value of the contracts or the size of the potential payout in the event of a credit event? is there a good site for learning more about the credit markets in semi laymans terms? "Noel,you're the person to ask about credit markets." I'm now in structured credit, so may be slightly rusty in single name CDS space - I'm sure there are others on here that are working in flow "Can I ask to what extent do CDS affect the underlying cost of money for said company or nation state,ie if they widen,does it draw bond yields higher automatically?Or do CDS spreads widen if bond yields move hgiher?" Some think yes http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,g...ee8b737444.aspx http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/937f2be0-e031-11...?nclick_check=1 whereas there was a company that issued bonds last year (can't recall the name) that got them away far below what the CDS market was pricing. One thing I would say is that the credit markets tend to indicate where there may be a problem (see Icelandic banks), Noel,you're the person to ask about credit markets. which may make people sit up and take notice - leading to snowball effect "Also,is there a normal level of CDS exposure to say market cap/liabilities eg Barclays has $4.2 billion net notional,yet HSBC only have $2 billion.You would have assumed HSBC would have the larger." I wouldn't say there is a normal, and it depends on how each bank does its reporting (they may have hedged using monolines for example - but can this be counted as "proper" hedging. "also,I know this is going to sound really dumb,but the net notional,does that pertain to the value of the contracts or the size of the potential payout in the event of a credit event?" The latter, but don't forget to take into account recovery rate "is there a good site for learning more about the credit markets in semi laymans terms?" Wikipedia is very good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 "Noel,you're the person to ask about credit markets."I'm now in structured credit, so may be slightly rusty in single name CDS space - I'm sure there are others on here that are working in flow "Can I ask to what extent do CDS affect the underlying cost of money for said company or nation state,ie if they widen,does it draw bond yields higher automatically?Or do CDS spreads widen if bond yields move hgiher?" Some think yes http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,g...ee8b737444.aspx http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/937f2be0-e031-11...?nclick_check=1 whereas there was a company that issued bonds last year (can't recall the name) that got them away far below what the CDS market was pricing. One thing I would say is that the credit markets tend to indicate where there may be a problem (see Icelandic banks), Noel,you're the person to ask about credit markets. which may make people sit up and take notice - leading to snowball effect "Also,is there a normal level of CDS exposure to say market cap/liabilities eg Barclays has $4.2 billion net notional,yet HSBC only have $2 billion.You would have assumed HSBC would have the larger." I wouldn't say there is a normal, and it depends on how each bank does its reporting (they may have hedged using monolines for example - but can this be counted as "proper" hedging. "also,I know this is going to sound really dumb,but the net notional,does that pertain to the value of the contracts or the size of the potential payout in the event of a credit event?" The latter, but don't forget to take into account recovery rate "is there a good site for learning more about the credit markets in semi laymans terms?" Wikipedia is very good And this chap is good http://derivativedribble.wordpress.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Do you ever sell, or are you the Warren Buffett of HPC? I never sell for market timing reasons Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 And?What's your point? The people on here that claim to time the market appear to have a negative bias. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Can you see me at the back? I refer you to a prior post. There have been so many tops called that there is currently a worldwide shortage and ZZ and Four have had to change their name. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Only 400 points away from 2006 levels and 900 points away from 2007 levels. Back in 2006 and 2007 we where growing and we were in a property and credit bubble. Today we are in a recession with lots of money lost and yet the stock market is only 15-20% down on 2007 levels!! If you strip out the banks which dragged down the FTSE lots then we are basically at 2007 levels. It is getting crazy. I cant see it going up more than 10% from here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
singlemalt Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 In 3, 6, 9 months time (who knows!) we're due a serious retrenchment of the stock markets. imo masses of QE money has found its way into stock. What exactly is underpinning the recent bull run? Consumer spending is likely to be as weak next yr as it's been this yr, unemployment is rising and continues to rise. The only reason many companies have reported better than expected results is because of slash n burn cost cutting, not growth. With each passing day I get more and more nervous that financial armorgeddon pt II is looming large and those at the helm seem powerless to avert it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 The people on here that claim to time the market appear to have a negative bias. That just might be because it's been rising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sign_of_the_times Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 rising on optomism.......mmmm not very tangible, is it ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Confidence was further increased by comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the US economy was now "very likely over". Did it really say this? The BBC page now says Confidence was further increased by comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the US recession was now "very likely over". I liked the first one better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Three Pint Princess 2 Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Did it really say this? The BBC page now says I liked the first one better. http://www.newssniffer.co.uk/articles/252912/diff/0/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 http://www.newssniffer.co.uk/articles/252912/diff/0/1 I so wish Bernanke had actually said that. It would have been the perfect Freudian slip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 What optimism is this ? Has someone at the BoE said the'd give them even more printed money ? Someone will eventually go to work and say..."Did anyone actually read the new lately, we're f**ked, sell....." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted September 17, 2009 Author Share Posted September 17, 2009 Finished at 5124.13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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