Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
shedfish

Bernanke And Buffet Weigh In

Recommended Posts

Ben Bernanke calls end of recession

Fed chairman's assertion came after Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, said economic growth was 'picking up'

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6835800.ece

-----------------------------------

U.S. Stocks Rise as Retail Sales Gain, Buffett Says He’s Buying

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aOWVcoNuk87w

-----------------------------------

tricky time to call it, if you ask me.

good call?

brave but foolhardy call?

pump monkeys on the loose?

meh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ben Bernanke calls end of recession

Fed chairman's assertion came after Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, said economic growth was 'picking up'

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6835800.ece

-----------------------------------

U.S. Stocks Rise as Retail Sales Gain, Buffett Says He’s Buying

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aOWVcoNuk87w

-----------------------------------

tricky time to call it, if you ask me.

good call?

brave but foolhardy call?

pump monkeys on the loose?

meh

It looks like the bear in your avatar is puking into a pond.

I feel about the same way at the moment.

I am possibly pi$$ing into the wind right now but I cannot see how we are out of this mess just now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over," he told a Washington think tank. He said the consensus is the economy is growing.

But he added that the economy would still feel "very weak" to Americans concerned about job security.

very likely?

i recall my old bmw dealership telling me it was "very likely" they had repaired the water leak in my 5 series after the 3rd visit back to them.

it took them another 8 goes until it actually got repaired.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bullish percentages are pretty high - Perhaps we are seeing the buying climax. If everyone's long how much higher can it go, really? :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bullish percentages are pretty high - Perhaps we are seeing the buying climax. If everyone's long how much higher can it go, really? :unsure:

this is why i'm puzzled by Buffet wading in at what looks like almost exactly the wrong time

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would say the stimulus has helped to stabise the situation. You cant deny that.

I would also say technically speaking the recession is over.

The problem is there are quite a few skewed markets and hidden dislocations such as scrappage schemes.

Germanys opposition to ultra loose monetary policy is also likely to cause FX fluctuations which may hamper the recover of global trade. This hurts the acceptance of the euro and prolongs the dollar hedgemony.

The biggest stories are all behind us now. The next stage concerns politics rather than economics, what regulatory framework will be errected in the rubble of lessez faire?

Will another asset bubble form during a period of negative real interest rates? Or has the risk spectrum shifted enough to exclude such obvious speculation whilst there exists the political will to introduce permanent measures to counter asset bubbles? Will such measures be introduced anyway?

The next phase is far more difficult to forecast as it involves politcal decsion making rather than marketeering.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

good to see you back ?..!

It looks like the bear in your avatar is puking into a pond.

I feel about the same way at the moment.

I am possibly pi$$ing into the wind right now but I cannot see how we are out of this mess just now.

the bear in the pic i think is mentally preparing himself for another pummeling from someone he has to call 'Admiral'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ben Bernanke calls end of recession

Fed chairman's assertion came after Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, said economic growth was 'picking up'

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6835800.ece

-----------------------------------

U.S. Stocks Rise as Retail Sales Gain, Buffett Says He’s Buying

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aOWVcoNuk87w

-----------------------------------

tricky time to call it, if you ask me.

good call?

brave but foolhardy call?

pump monkeys on the loose?

meh

Buffet is buying with all the ill gotten gains from his Goldman Sachs buy-in when he was an Obama insider. He is a crook like the rest of em. Went down to the level of the rest of the banksters when he did that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From a technical perspective

You need to read what he's saying, it's all Fed speak.

A technical recession is 2 quarters of negative growth. However the US needs 2.5% growth just to stop job losses.

http://www.businessweek.com/executivesumma...nke_us_une.html

Speaking at a town hall meeting on July 26, Bernanke also said it would take GDP growth of around 2.5% to keep the jobless rate constant.

It's all Fed speak, from the original article:

"Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time".

Essentially he's admitting we are still going to be in recession, just not a technical one. It's political cheerleadering.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would say the stimulus has helped to stabise the situation. You cant deny that.

I would also say technically speaking the recession is over.

The problem is there are quite a few skewed markets and hidden dislocations such as scrappage schemes.

Germanys opposition to ultra loose monetary policy is also likely to cause FX fluctuations which may hamper the recover of global trade. This hurts the acceptance of the euro and prolongs the dollar hedgemony.

The biggest stories are all behind us now. The next stage concerns politics rather than economics, what regulatory framework will be errected in the rubble of lessez faire?

Will another asset bubble form during a period of negative real interest rates? Or has the risk spectrum shifted enough to exclude such obvious speculation whilst there exists the political will to introduce permanent measures to counter asset bubbles? Will such measures be introduced anyway?

The next phase is far more difficult to forecast as it involves politcal decsion making rather than marketeering.

debt mountain been paid back has it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
debt mountain been paid back has it

thats right...it hasnt.

we have to look forward to:

serious tax rises.....hidden if this government has anything to do with it.

Public Sector cuts...strikes, intermittent mail and so on.

a reduction in stimulus....

rising unemployment

banks in a worse state then they appear to be as bail outs cant continue

the BoE "book" looking worse and worse as "securities" lodged by banks for funds are marked more to reality.

Banks possessing homes as the "working hard to keep people in their homes" comes to a funding buffer stop.

The problem in the UK is that many borrowers have not paid the price....debt is still not feared by many. I feel this will change soon after the election.....and to be honest...whoever wins...I couldnt care less.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   295 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.