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Rics Housing Survey For Wales

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At first glance this survey is bad news for bears as it is initially as boom, bubble, prices going up, etc, etc IMPO but...

When you get down to the 7th paragraph you begin to read a quite different, interesting and bearish view of the housing market IMPO...

PROPERTY MARKET STRENGTHENS IN WALES

RICS HOUSING MARKET SURVEY

With regional comments from: Haverfordwest, Lampeter, Cardiff, Rhyl, Brecon, Haverfordwest, Cardigan, Mold, Penarth and Llangefni

An improvement in the property market in Wales is encouraging vendors back into the marketplace, according to this month’s Housing Market Survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).

Surveyors in Wales have seen more new properties coming on to the market than anywhere else in the UK. In Wales, surveyors have also sold an average of 17 homes in the last three months with many anticipating the number of sales set to rise again. In July, surveyors were selling an average of 14 properties in the previous three months and the figure was as low as just eight properties in January.

A net balance of 44 percent of surveyors reported that new instructions had risen in August, compared to a reading of -22 percent in July. This compares to a national figure of just 12 percent in comparison.

The net balance is calculated by asking surveyors whether they believed that new instructions had risen, stayed the same or got worse. The net balance is arrived at by subtracting the percentage of respondents who believe the situation has got worse from the percentage who believe it will improve.

Cathy McLean, director of RICS Wales, said: “The number of new instructions witnessed by surveyors has dramatically increased in Wales. We believe that the return of good news in the property market in recent months has encouraged vendors to bite the bullet and put their home up for sale. “Low house prices and a slowdown in sales meant that homeowners were holding on to their properties for as long as possible to weather out the storm. Homeowners are deciding they have now waited long enough and, coupled with the positive signs in the market, feel more confident that they will sell their home for a realistic price.â€

Surveyors are also reporting a rise in buyer enquiries and expected sales. In Wales, a net balance of 41 percent of surveyors expect to see a rise in sales numbers. Nationally, only the North West and South East of England had a higher figure for sales expectations. Meanwhile, a balance of 47 percent saw an increase in new buyer enquiries.

While sales improved, prices in Wales were not as strong as national figures. The net balance of Chartered Surveyors in Wales reporting rises rather than falls in house prices is still negative at -31 per cent, up from -44 per cent in July. However in comparison the national figure, known as the house price net balance, turned positive for the first time in two years at 11 per cent. The balance was boosted by the South England but Wales saw the weakest net price balance in the country, followed by Yorkshire and Humberside and the West Midlands.

Only 3 percent of surveyors in Wales reported a rise in prices over the last three months. 66 percent reported that prices had stayed the same while 31 percent were still reporting a fall.

The seasonally adjusted net balance of -31 per cent is the percentage of surveyors reporting a rise in prices, minus those reporting a fall. And things aren’t looking up just yet. The net balance of surveyors expecting prices to rise in the next three months is -2 percent, down from -1 percent in July. However, the figure is significantly better than this time last year when it fell as low as -67 percent.

Mrs McLean said: “The strengthening in activity and sentiment has boosted surveyor optimism. The predictions for sales numbers is rising. This time last year, the net balance of surveyors expecting a rise in sales was zero percent. Last month, the figure was 32 percent and it’s great to see the figure rise even further to 41 percent this month.

“Wales isn’t as strong on price as the rest of the country but it more than makes up for it in terms of expected sales, buyer enquiries and new instructions. If we were seeing an increase in new instructions and not the other two factors, then surveyors would have too much stock on their books and the prices would fall.

“However, where a rise in new instructions is coupled with buyer enquiries and expected sales, vendors will receive a true value for their home.

“The lack of supply has underpinned the recovery in most parts of the country. The property market in Wales will continue to recover thanks to the positivity in this month’s Housing Market Survey.â€

REGIONAL COMMENTS

· Tony Filice, RICS Wales residential spokesman and partner at Kelvin Francis Chartered Surveyors, said: “We have noted an increase in the level of new instructions, particularly in the middle to upper end of the market. High demand is being shown for traditional 3 bedroom semi-detached houses in favoured school catchment areas, leading to offers of the asking price and in some cases sealed offers. Each week sees confidence improving, resulting in speedier sales at fuller prices and we see no sign of this confidence diminishing.

Dafydd Hardy MRICS, of Dafydd Hardy Y Gwerthwyr Tai, Llangefni, said: “There has been an increase in activity, viewings and sales.â€

David Baker FRICS, of David Baker & Company, Penarth, said: “There has been fair activity through a normally quiet August, certainly more viewings and offers than 2008. Prices are still static and will not go up until summer of next year.â€

David W Pearse FRICS, of David W Pearse & Co., Mold, Flintshire, said: “There has been a significant increase in activity producing a modest improvement in sales as buyers appear to have formed the opinion that prices have fallen as low as they are likely to go. A stable market with the possibility of some very minor price increases.â€

Roger Davies Esq MRICS, of J J Morris, Cardigan, Ceredigion, said: “The increased activity seen in July has continued in August and deals are being done at the appropriate level of value - i.e. realistic asking prices.â€

John Nicholas MRICS, of J J Morris, Haverfordwest, Pembrokeshire, said: “An increase in interest from property developers has been seen this month after a long period of dormancy. Reasonable offers have also been put forward by these developers which is a positive factor and a step in the right direction.â€

David James FRICS, of James Dean, Brecon, said: “A much better month although purchasers are still difficult to negotiate with.â€

David Jones BSc FRICS, of Jones & Redfearn, Rhyl, Co Denbighshire, said: “There are signs of improvement but these are being hampered by inaccurate reports of price rises and the Chancellor talking of a 'double dip recession'. Transaction levels are increasing.â€

Kelvin Francis FRICS, of Kelvin Francis & Co., Cardiff, said: “An increased level of new

instructions is being experienced, particularly in the middle to upper end of the market. High demand is being shown for traditional 3 bedroom semi-detached houses in favoured school catchment areas.â€

Andrew Morgan FRICS, of Morgan & Davies, Lampeter, Ceredigion, said: “Traditionally a quieter month and we expect an improvement during the early part of September. Vendors are more confident than they were which doesn't assist in clinching a deal in some instances.â€

Paul Lucas FRICS, of R.K.Lucas & Son, Haverfordwest, Pembrokeshire, said: “Banks offer lending packages which are impossible to obtain such as 60% mortgages. Where initial lending is agreed, restrictions placed on property valuers have been tightened so much that the valuer finds it impossible to obtain comparable evidence.â€

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Backs up what I'm seeing - the return of really negative sentiment and falling prices / panic selling in places. Jeepers, if that is the best postive spin the Estate Agents can put on it...

Edited by gruffydd

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Backs up what I'm seeing - the return of really negative sentiment and falling prices in places.

Let's face it, the Summer bounceh as been a blip and the cold, dark grey Winter months are fast approaching... and with it the double-dip recession come depression... The gathering storm...

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Well, there are no house price rises in my area of Wales infact falls are happening in all price ranges.....The market has pretty much stagnated since 2008 with moderate decline in asking prices. MT we just need to sit this one out!!

Anecdotally my journey time into work at peak rush hour has decreased by 15 minutes, further I was in cardiff today on business and the car park I always use was empty, in fact it was Sunday empty. Wales not so great it seems............and then the Public sector cull begins............ :ph34r: Which is worrying as I am public sector, frontline of course :unsure:

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Well, there are no house price rises in my area of Wales infact falls are happening in all price ranges.....The market has pretty much stagnated since 2008 with moderate decline in asking prices. MT we just need to sit this one out!!

Anecdotally my journey time into work at peak rush hour has decreased by 15 minutes, further I was in cardiff today on business and the car park I always use was empty, in fact it was Sunday empty. Wales not so great it seems............and then the Public sector cull begins............ :ph34r: Which is worrying as I am public sector, frontline of course :unsure:

That is reassuring... feel a tad unhappy hoping for things to get bad but, well, the Welsh economy needs to come into the 21st Century and not be focussed on vast numbers kept in low-paid PS jobs whilst the Taffia get silly salaries in the Welsh language QUANGOs.

Rant over. I am having sausage, beans and chips for tea. I've hd my 5 a day already so feel like some grub!

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That is reassuring... feel a tad unhappy hoping for things to get bad but, well, the Welsh economy needs to come into the 21st Century and not be focussed on vast numbers kept in low-paid PS jobs whilst the Taffia get silly salaries in the Welsh language QUANGOs.

Rant over. I am having sausage, beans and chips for tea. I've hd my 5 a day already so feel like some grub!

That's certain to taste a lot better than the microwave pasta I'm shovelling down my trap. Still the missus is doing fish fingers tonight, so all is not lost.

Was interested to see some significant price reductions round my area this week (East Mids) on one estate agent's web site. About a quarter of the houses in the > £500,000 bracket reduced, with average reductions around 10%. Significant as I have never seen any reductions on there before.

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That's certain to taste a lot better than the microwave pasta I'm shovelling down my trap. Still the missus is doing fish fingers tonight, so all is not lost.

Was interested to see some significant price reductions round my area this week (East Mids) on one estate agent's web site. About a quarter of the houses in the > £500,000 bracket reduced, with average reductions around 10%. Significant as I have never seen any reductions on there before.

It is just a mess - the housing market and not the pasta. Can't beat a fish finger sarnie with dollops of ketchup IMPO but there you... As I have posted elsewhere on here, they are putting up asking prices in Swansea even though the LR figures show that little is selling... nuts!

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Was off work for a few days last week. When I got back in 2 people in my office (both sit within a few feet of me) had both sold their house and bought a new one (well, accepted offers and had offers accepted)

Traffic is very much picking up here again on my daily commute to work. Now taking almost twice as long to get into work, which I haven't seen for at least a year.

(I'm in Swansea, BTW)

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"The seasonally adjusted net balance of -31 per cent is the percentage of surveyors reporting a rise in prices, minus those reporting a fall. And things aren’t looking up just yet. The net balance of surveyors expecting prices to rise in the next three months is -2 percent, down from -1 percent in July. However, the figure is significantly better than this time last year when it fell as low as -67 percent."

As there were only 266 contributors to the survey in the whole of the UK (bottom of page one of report) how could there have been enough in Wales to get a -31% result ?

-30% if there were 3 out of 10 contributors in Wales I could understand .

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Dead as a dodo here in Cheshire and the first time buyers have been out of the market since late 2006 as the prices just went crazy and are not sustainable....and that's what my estate agent tells me....its grim up north.. :lol:

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