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Guest KingCharles1st

Closing Date For The Bull Trap- 30th September...?

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I think I predicted a little while back that Q4 would be negative and I haven't seen anything to change that view.

I'm also predicting another stock market crash in October but that's another story ;)

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If Q4 isn't negative then it will be very strange indeed. Although I wouldn't get your hopes up that what we are seeing now can be classified as a bull trap, even if prices fall during q4 and the early part of next year.... what you could be seeing is just seasonal weakness within a house price environment which has moved from outright reductions month on month to equilibrium or a gentler pace of reduction. It certainly won't be as simple as saying house prices down = it really was a bull trap.

One of the key indicators will be rate of fall... if th market goes into reverse say 2%+ per month for oct/nov/dec/jan/feb then I think you could safely call what went on before a bull trap. If however the reductions are weak then its likely that the market is not going to revisit crash speed again.

For what its worth, I don't think we'll see a return to heavy falls, I think we'll see gentle year on year reductions ( possibly 2-3% something like that) for a prolonged period... this will run alongside stubborn unemployment data and a weak recovery...... we could yet see another 15%+ come off prices but it mioght take 5 years plus.... bad news for those waiting to buy and for thise clinging on.

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Guest KingCharles1st
If Q4 isn't negative then it will be very strange indeed. Although I wouldn't get your hopes up that what we are seeing now can be classified as a bull trap, even if prices fall during q4 and the early part of next year.... what you could be seeing is just seasonal weakness within a house price environment which has moved from outright reductions month on month to equilibrium or a gentler pace of reduction. It certainly won't be as simple as saying house prices down = it really was a bull trap.

One of the key indicators will be rate of fall... if th market goes into reverse say 2%+ per month for oct/nov/dec/jan/feb then I think you could safely call what went on before a bull trap. If however the reductions are weak then its likely that the market is not going to revisit crash speed again.

For what its worth, I don't think we'll see a return to heavy falls, I think we'll see gentle year on year reductions ( possibly 2-3% something like that) for a prolonged period... this will run alongside stubborn unemployment data and a weak recovery...... we could yet see another 15%+ come off prices but it mioght take 5 years plus.... bad news for those waiting to buy and for thise clinging on.

Yes, difficult call.

I still see very little being done to help FTB's in both terms of affordable housing, and available finance. I see the big houses that were not really that "cool" being fire-sold everywhere I look. I see unemployment rapidly on the increase. Certainly the market is shaking itself out, I just wonder how much more shaking it can stand?

Edited by KingCharles1st

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If Q4 isn't negative then it will be very strange indeed. Although I wouldn't get your hopes up that what we are seeing now can be classified as a bull trap, even if prices fall during q4 and the early part of next year.... what you could be seeing is just seasonal weakness within a house price environment which has moved from outright reductions month on month to equilibrium or a gentler pace of reduction. It certainly won't be as simple as saying house prices down = it really was a bull trap.

One of the key indicators will be rate of fall... if th market goes into reverse say 2%+ per month for oct/nov/dec/jan/feb then I think you could safely call what went on before a bull trap. If however the reductions are weak then its likely that the market is not going to revisit crash speed again.

For what its worth, I don't think we'll see a return to heavy falls, I think we'll see gentle year on year reductions ( possibly 2-3% something like that) for a prolonged period... this will run alongside stubborn unemployment data and a weak recovery...... we could yet see another 15%+ come off prices but it mioght take 5 years plus.... bad news for those waiting to buy and for thise clinging on.

I think we'll see monthly falls in the 1-2% per month range for a good twelve month starting in October.

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Seems that way.

Lets see what happens.

Thoughts?

i think people on this forum will never get the date right!

should really focus on understanding the underlying issues - getting the date right without relevant information is just a guess.

Edited by sharpe

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i think people on this forum will never get the date right!

should really focus on understanding the underlying issues - getting the date right without relevant information is just a guess.

Where's the fun if you're not allowed to guess? ;)

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Isn't the 29th some wacky banking day when shares bought need to be paid for or sold... or something complicated and silly like that which may cause the markets to crash around that time?

I still think Oct/Nov will see the crash. If not, I am going house hunting in Dec/Jan.

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