Cptkernow Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 “Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery…. ‘If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,’ Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium, said in an interview at the firm’s New York offices. ‘This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.’ Equity and credit markets have rallied on hopes that government intervention is pulling the US out of the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression…. Tudor … told clients in an Aug. 3 letter that the stock market’s climb was a ‘bear-market rally.’ Weak growth in household income was among the reasons to be dubious about the rebound’s chances of survival, Tudor said. A focus on misleading indicators is driving markets, macro managers say…. The housing data isn’t as rosy as some see it, Harrington said. As existing U.S. home sales rose 7.2 percent in July from the previous month, distressed deals including foreclosures accounted for 31 percent of transactions…. Clarium, which oversees about $2 billion, is positioned for an equity bear market through investments in the U.S. dollar, Harrington said. Falling stock prices will strengthen the currency by forcing leveraged investors to sell equities to pay down the dollar-denominated debt they used to finance those trades, he said…. Macro managers’ pessimism is fueled in part by the U.S. government’s response to last year’s financial crisis, which they say fails to address the root cause. Banks still hold hard-to-sell assets on their balance sheets, the managers said…. The Financial Accounting Standards Board voted in April to relax fair-value accounting rules. The change to mark-to-market accounting allowed companies to use ‘significant’ judgment in gauging prices of some investments on their books, including mortgage-backed securities that plunged with the housing market. Banks are reporting better earnings because they haven’t been forced to account for their losses yet, Clarium’s Harrington said. ‘We haven’t fixed the problem,’ he said. ‘We’ve just slowed down the official recognition of it.’†Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happy? Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 This phrase was also used on BBC's Moneybox on Radio 4 on Saturday - the speaker described it as a sharp increase followed by a cold bump! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Did you see the moneyweek article yesterday 4 Reasons Why House Prices Will Keep Falling ? It also said: Yet a Rightmove survey at the end of August gave the "encouraging" signal that 78% of respondents reckoned UK house prices won't fall any further this year. And also that "the UK property industry is now seeing a virtuous circle of confidence building upon confidence".Why's this another worry? Well, as Fidelity's Anthony Bolton explained in the weekend's FT about the stock market, "if everyone is positioned for the market to rise, it means these bullish expectations are already discounted" – i.e. factored into the price. As a result, "the market often moves to make the majority wrong and does the unexpected… so at turning points especially, the correct is the minority view". And while there are plenty of differences between shares and houses, the principles of crowd behaviour are the same for every asset class. When almost everyone is bullish, get ready for a price fall. The near-8.5% bounce in property prices within the last six months (using Nationwide's figures at least) now looks ripe for a reversal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 What is it with financial articles and lack of paragraphs? Ski-jump? Hmm, new one on me.... don't people who go down ski-jumps usually take-off? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desertorchid Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 (edited) What is it with financial articles and lack of paragraphs?Ski-jump? Hmm, new one on me.... don't people who go down ski-jumps usually take-off? Eddie the Eagle Edwards recession?? Edited September 10, 2009 by desertorchid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 And what will fuel the next leg down? Lots and lots of these, sucking the state dry.... (boomers, possibly playing Wii's or not) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 What is it with financial articles and lack of paragraphs?Ski-jump? Hmm, new one on me.... don't people who go down ski-jumps usually take-off? but conservation of energy dictates they reach a height LOWER than the height they started at at the top of the ramp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 And what will fuel the next leg down?Lots and lots of these, sucking the state dry.... (boomers, possibly playing Wii's or not) they don't look 46 at all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 but conservation of energy dictates they reach a height LOWER than the height they started at at the top of the ramp. So it is a backwards S - at this rate, we will soon run out of letters in the alphabet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 So it is a backwards S - at this rate, we will soon run out of letters in the alphabet. eh? no, honestly, a ski-jump worked for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob monkhouse Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Yes please, Ive not saved enough of a deposit yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkman Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 The near-8.5% bounce in property prices within the last six months (using Nationwide's figures at least) now looks ripe for a reversal. Please let it happen God.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deflation Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 I think a few people are forgetting the trajectory of the skier himself. Those landing areas are WAY below the edge of the take-off ramp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
getdoon_weebobby Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Tudor_Jones knowledgeable guy. he makes an interesting read in the market wizards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abharrisson Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 I do think that the predictions of where the market is going ( eg doom and gloom mongers predicting 40%/50% plus) have turned out to be wrong currently.... the bounce has meant overall there has been little real correction so far since 2007 (10%- something like that)..... personally though I also feel those saying the down leg has ceased have got it wrong and we will be seeing further weakness and reductions..... the housing market though is a fickle beast. it has been in excess if you like vs the key indicators since about 2003.... and yet consumer confidence and cheap debt ket it marching on for another 4 years...... here again the indicators say down... but market confidence and QE etc might produce a different result.... not a boom period I suspect but they could very well erradicate the overcorrection that often occurs with boom periods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgle Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 In fact, the bottom of a ski jump run-up isn't not lipped as most people think, it is horizontal, so a ski jumper NEVER goes upwards at all. This might be a special sort of ski jump though i suppose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 Men In A Boat Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Hold on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jp1 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 I read that were in for an Alphabeti Spagetti shaped recession Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Peter Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Hold on... Eeeek! I take me hat off to anyone who simp[ly dares to step out at the top! Peter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 A bit like this? http://www.microsoft.com/germany/aktionen/...ar/default.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 I read that were in for an Alphabeti Spagetti shaped recession how about spaghetti dinosaurs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 In fact, the bottom of a ski jump run-up isn't not lipped as most people think, it is horizontal, so a ski jumper NEVER goes upwards at all. This might be a special sort of ski jump though i suppose. Ok its the Fireball XL5 launch ramp scenario. on our way 'ome. on our way 'ome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissy_fit Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 (edited) A bit like this?http://www.microsoft.com/germany/aktionen/...ar/default.aspx Surely that's not real? Brilliant, and they say Brits are eccentric! Being a German he nailed the landing spot. Edit : Spotted the dummy at second viewing. :-( Edited September 11, 2009 by gleeful_expat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharpe Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 no one has a clue the only sure thing is that one of the 1000 or so baboons guessing the shape will make a profit and claim superior knowledge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jekyll Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 You heard it hear first Can I claim royalties? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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