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What Rate Of Economic Expansion Is Still A Recession In Real Terms?

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Hi I was just thinking.

Apparently population expansion is 0.7% per year in the UK.

Does that mean that the economy (let's say GDP) must expand at 0.7% also, otherwise is the economy recessing in real terms.

Are there any other factors to be taken in to account?

Just trying to work out what is the base level of expansion required for things to stay on the level. ie. even if GDP were expanding at 1% per year for a bunch of years would we still be going backwards once we adjusted for other factors.


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To be honest these numbers (GDP, population, inflation) all have error bars of at least 1 or 2% anyway so it's all a bit of a muchness over short periods like one year.

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Interesting question, equally in a declining population, as long as the GDP declines by less, does that count as real shrinkage?

One of the elements has to be per-capita-debt-service vs per-capita-GDP IMO, which will also change according to population growth/decline.

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If I recall correctly from my undergraduate economics (20 yrs ago :o ), if the UK economy is growing at less than 2.5% per annum then unemployment will keep increasing.

Don't know if this still holds, but if it does then we have a long way to go before all is rosy in the garden again.

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