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Uk Recovery 'gains Traction' On 5% Exports Rise

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6827155.ece

British exports in July rose at their fastest monthly pace since the start of 2008, helping the trade gap to further narrow and boosting hopes of an economic recovery.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the value of British exports rose 5 per cent on the month to £19.187 billion - its fastest increase since January 2008. The weak pound bolstered sales of goods to both non-EU and EU markets.

Britain's overall trade-in-goods deficit narrowed to £6.479 billion from an upwardly revised £6.515 billion in June. The figure was worse than expected — economists had forecast a deficit of £6.3 billion — but the deficit was due in part to a year-high oil deficit.

The oil deficit rose to its widest level in a year, from £433 million in June to to £537 million as summer maintenance work curbed North Sea production.

The trade deficit in traded goods, excluding oil, narrowed to £5.9 billion — well below the average shortfall of £6.6 billion in the first half of 2009 and the average of £7.3 billion in 2008. The total value of imports also rose by 3.5 per cent to £25.66 billion.

Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, America's central bank, said today: "Britain is more globally oriented as an economy and the dramatic decline in exports globally and trade generally following the collapse of Lehman Brothers had dramatic effects in the financial system of Britain.

"It's going to take a long while for you [britain] to work your way through this."

But analysts said that the figures gave further hope that the economy was picking-up. Today's trade figures follow a report from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, one of the foremost independent economic forecasters, which indicated the British recession was over.

The group estimated that Britain had climbed out of the slump to enjoy economic growth in the three months to August.

A further boost came today when Moody's, the rating agency, announced that Britain's top-notch triple-A credit rating is unlikely to be downgraded if the Government cuts public spending.

It's the export recovery.

The recovery takes hold, exports are up 5% we are going to export our way out of this mess.

Viva recovery, viva Brown the saviour of the universe.

The only way is up from here.

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our trade balance is still in deficit....6.4 billion every month flowing out of the wallet.

still, its better than it was.

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Here's the original release for June.

May 6.174 (From below)

June 6.451 (From below)

July 6.479 (From original post)

Take out the revision and the trade gap is getting worse. A pick up of sorts (in overall trade, imports and exports) is expected after inventory rundown of the last couple of years, at a trade level we are still doing dreadfully and collapsing the pound is not making a dent in the figures. The very large jump in the trade gap May-June has carried on.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/11082009/323/updat...ds-deficit.html

UPDATE 1-UK trade gap widens in June as oil records deficit

LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Britain's goods trade gap with the rest of the world widened slightly more than expected in June as the oil balance swung into deficit due to summer maintenance work, official data showed on Tuesday.

The Office for National Statistics said that the goods trade gap rose to 6.451 billion pounds from 6.174 billion in May. Economists had forecast a deficit of 6.20 billion pounds.

Edited by OnlyMe

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I'm probably being thick, but aren't increasing exports a genuine sign of recovery? You seem to imply otherwise...

Depends on what you want to interpret as a recovery.

Yes exports going up is a good sign, however why are exports going up. If it's because of other countries stimulus packages then this is a short term blip. When the stimulus ends so will the exports.

It can become circular if enough people believe this is good news then it can become a positive reinforcing loop.

However I fear that this is a stimulus led recovery which will falter once the global stimulus packages expire, which means this is just a temporary blip masking serious structural weakness in the global economy. Time will tell whether this recovery is sustainable. Currently I'm in the it's a crock of sh1t camp. I await to be proved wrong.

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UPDATE 1-UK trade gap widens in June as oil records deficit

LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Britain's goods trade gap with the rest of the world widened slightly more than expected in June as the oil balance swung into deficit due to summer maintenance work, official data showed on Tuesday.

The Office for National Statistics said that the goods trade gap rose to 6.451 billion pounds from 6.174 billion in May. Economists had forecast a deficit of 6.20 billion pounds.

Maintenance work or no, oil exports will increasingly be unable to make such a contribution to funding our trade gap, in fact the balance of trade in energy will increasingly swing against us.

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Maintenance work or no, oil exports will increasingly be unable to make such a contribution to funding our trade gap, in fact the balance of trade in energy will increasingly swing against us.

Quite.

The re-basing of the UK economy from imports-subsidised-by-oil to exports-propelled-by-hard-work isn't going to be easy for the instant gratification mob.

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Quite.

The re-basing of the UK economy from imports-subsidised-by-oil to exports-propelled-by-hard-work isn't going to be easy for the instant gratification mob.

Can't we just borrow some money on the never never and fix it that way?

What about growing and exporting drugs? That would satisfy the instant gratification mob?

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Date: 9 Sept 2009

Coverage: United Kingdom Theme: The Economy

The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was £2.4 billion in July, unchanged

compared with June.

The deficit on trade in goods was £6.5 billion in July,

unchanged compared with June.

Excluding oil and erratic items, the volume of exports was five

per cent higher and imports were two and a half per cent

higher in July, compared with June.

Export and import prices both fell by a half per cent compared

with June.

The latest estimate of the trend suggests that the whole world

goods deficit is narrowing slightly in recent months. The trends in

the value of trade show both imports and exports falling in recent

months.

Latest estimates of volume trends show both exports and imports

falling slightly in recent months.

Within finished manufactures, exports of cars rose by 19 per cent

Within finished manufactures, imports of cars rose by 18 per cent

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=1119

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