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Realistbear

Moodys Have Changed Their Mind-- No Downgrade For U K

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/09092009/323/top-e...gs-moody-s.html

Wednesday September 9, 08:47 AM

Top economies to keep best ratings: Moody's

LONDON (AFP) - International ratings agency Moody's on Wednesday said it was now unlikely to downgrade the world's leading economies in the near future as the global economy shows signs of improvement.

But the agency also warned that high debt levels are a serious risk.

"While almost all Aaa (Xetra: 722800 - news) -rated sovereigns have been severely hit by the global economic and financial crisis, further downgrades are unlikely over the near term," Moody's Investors Service said in its "Aaa Sovereign Monitor" report.

"Although highly unlikely, it is conceivable that a large and wealthy economy could lose its Aaa rating if it were to experience a material and irreversible deterioration in its debt conditions over the next five years or so," said Pierre Cailleteau, managing director of Moody's Sovereign Risk Group.

Countries given Moody's top Aaa rating include Britain, Germany, Spain and the United States. During the financial crisis Moody's has additionally described these nations as either "resistant," "resilient" or "vulnerable".

"Moody's does not expect rating downgrades in the near future, especially after the recent downgrade of Ireland (from Aaa to Aa1 with negative outlook) which had been the most 'vulnerable' Aaa," said Cailleteau.

"Spain, the other 'vulnerable' Aaa, for now retains a safe distance from the Aaa-Aa demarcation line, mainly because potential growth is not likely to be as low as anticipated and also because the government's balance sheet was comparatively solid at the beginning of the crisis," Cailleteau added.

Moody's said it believed Britain and US continued to warrant the "resilient" characterization.

What difference a few weeks can make! Spain???????????????????????????

Edited by Realistbear

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I never doubted that for a minute, UK is "too big to fail"... ;)

What are your thoughts on the USD right now RB? I'm not teasing... just genuinely interested in your views

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/09092009/323/top-e...gs-moody-s.html

Wednesday September 9, 08:47 AM

Top economies to keep best ratings: Moody's

LONDON (AFP) - International ratings agency Moody's on Wednesday said it was now unlikely to downgrade the world's leading economies in the near future as the global economy shows signs of improvement.

But the agency also warned that high debt levels are a serious risk.

"While almost all Aaa (Xetra: 722800 - news) -rated sovereigns have been severely hit by the global economic and financial crisis, further downgrades are unlikely over the near term," Moody's Investors Service said in its "Aaa Sovereign Monitor" report.

"Although highly unlikely, it is conceivable that a large and wealthy economy could lose its Aaa rating if it were to experience a material and irreversible deterioration in its debt conditions over the next five years or so," said Pierre Cailleteau, managing director of Moody's Sovereign Risk Group.

Countries given Moody's top Aaa rating include Britain, Germany, Spain and the United States. During the financial crisis Moody's has additionally described these nations as either "resistant," "resilient" or "vulnerable".

"Moody's does not expect rating downgrades in the near future, especially after the recent downgrade of Ireland (from Aaa to Aa1 with negative outlook) which had been the most 'vulnerable' Aaa," said Cailleteau.

"Spain, the other 'vulnerable' Aaa, for now retains a safe distance from the Aaa-Aa demarcation line, mainly because potential growth is not likely to be as low as anticipated and also because the government's balance sheet was comparatively solid at the beginning of the crisis," Cailleteau added.

Moody's said it believed Britain and US continued to warrant the "resilient" characterization.

What difference a few weeks can make! Spain???????????????????????????

Like their opinion is even relevant.

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I never doubted that for a minute, UK is "too big to fail"... ;)

What are your thoughts on the USD right now RB? I'm not teasing... just genuinely interested in your views

I am about 33% in UKP (to buy a house when the market approaches bottom--2011??) and 66% in USD right now. For me, the pound is the riskiest of all the major currencies (worse than Peru?). We have a debt based recovery and a narrow base upon which to sustain a recovery as banking is still our premier earner. The rise in the Pound and Euro is based on a return to risk appetitie and I believe it is far to early to be calling an end to risk.

I think JC has it right:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/09092009/325/trich...ats-crisis.html

Trichet repeats crisis not over yet

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The economic crisis is not yet over, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Wednesday, underlining the need for credible plans to return to sustainable fiscal and monetary policies.

"I will repeat what I said at the G20 (finance ministers' meeting) -- it is not time yet to say the crisis is over," Trichet said after a meeting with European Parliament President Jerzy Buzek in Brussels.

He also said it was important to ensure there were credible plans to return monetary and fiscal policies eventually to a sustainable path -- the same message sent by finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 developed and emerging economies last Saturday.

Brown is desparate not to go down in history as ther worst PM we have ever had and I believe he is seeding the propaganda in his attempt to get everyone believing in a recovery on the basis that sentiment drives markets. Problem is that I do not believe the elephant is going to go away that easily. Risk appetite will collapse with the first set of reality news later in the year.

Edited by Realistbear

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The rise in the Pound and Euro is based on a return to risk appetitie and I believe it is far to early to be calling an end to risk.

Have your views on the Euro changed then?

I still think it's due a major downward correction.

German figures have been fiddled ahead of this month's GE and the Eurozone banks' twin exposure to US subprime and Eastern Europe bad debts has not been fully exposed yet - but it has to eventually.

I just couldn't figure out why the ECB tolerates having such a strong ccy when it's killing the economies of most EZ countries (ceratinly all the PIIGS), then I found this.

Makes you see things from a different perspective, doesn't it? ;)

:ph34r:

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