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eric pebble

Have We Learned Nothing From The Financial Crisis?

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But if sentiment turns upwards, then maybe nobody needs to have learnt anything. If everyone thinks house prices, share prices etc. are going to go up again, they will - until people start thinking they'll go down again!

Edited by blankster

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But if sentiment turns upwards, then maybe nobody needs to have learnt anything. If everyone thinks house prices, share prices etc. are going to go up again, they will!

A very big "If". we are in a deflationary spiral and we are witnessing a dead cat bounce.

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They got lucky last time and generated huge profits, the gambler always goes back to the "winning system" it can't possible fail.

If they can generate positive sentiment they could pull the rabbit out of the bag. On one level I hope they do as I can continue paying down my debts at a faster rate.

However.

Von Mises

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

If they do they have delayed the correction again meaning it will be bigger and badder next time.

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I vote no.

The governemnt are talking recovery and green shoots like we can all start the madness again straight away. And the banks need no encouraging.

I await Grant Bovey's next venture.

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A very big "If". we are in a deflationary spiral and we are witnessing a dead cat bounce.

What's so deflationary about the Stock Market since March?

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"The credit system, which has its focus in the so-called national banks and the big money-lenders and usurers surrounding them, constitutes enormous centralisation, and gives this class of parasites the fabulous power, not only to periodically despoil industrial capitalists, but also to interfere in actual production in a most dangerous manner— and this gang knows nothing about production and has nothing to do with it. ...the country is undermined by the roving cavaliers of credit.â€

Marx, Capital Volume III, Chapter 33, The medium of circulation in the credit system, pp. 544-45

"What is to be done?"

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Have we learnt nothing?

That's the plan:

As we wade through a long line of international economic meetings – G20 ministers of finance last week, G20 heads of government in Pittsburgh coming up, IMF-World Bank governors meeting in Istanbul early October (and all the associated “deputies†meetings, where the real work goes on) – it seems fair to ask: where is regulatory reform of our financial system heading?

Long documents have been produced and official websites have become more organized. Statements of principle have been made. And the melodrama of rival reform proposals has reared its head: continental Europeans for controlling pay vs. the US for raising capital vs. the UK not really wanting to do anything. But what does all of this add up to, and what should we expect from the forthcoming summit sequence?

Nothing meaningful.

Baseline Scenario

Peter.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
What's so deflationary about the Stock Market since March?

Nothing. He's just talking about 90% of the population's wages.

Those irritating bastards who actually do things.

Edited by DissipatedYouthIsValuable

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But there isn't a single example of casino style speculation cited

IC, yo mean the banks have full and undisclosed info on the direction of shares and markets, its everyone else thats just taking a bet.

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...and gives this class of parasites the fabulous power, not only to periodically despoil industrial capitalists, but also to interfere in actual production in a most dangerous manner...

"What is to be done?"

They may have the power but the question is will they be able to exercise that power? In a properly regulated market controlled by healthy, accountable democratic government the answer would be no but as we are now experiencing we know that they have been able to exercise that power.

All the lessons regarding capitalisation, mutualisation, credit risk and credit bubbles have already been learned in the past and the controls were part of statute until repealed not by accident but as a deliberate act of corruption made complete by international collusion. The system is not at fault as Marx wishes us to believe, the system has been subverted by criminal acts perpetrated by individuals. They also want you to believe that it is the system at fault in order to cover their tracks.

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They may have the power but the question is will they be able to exercise that power? In a properly regulated market controlled by healthy, accountable democratic government the answer would be no but as we are now experiencing we know that they have been able to exercise that power.

All the lessons regarding capitalisation, mutualisation, credit risk and credit bubbles have already been learned in the past and the controls were part of statute until repealed not by accident but as a deliberate act of corruption made complete by international collusion. The system is not at fault as Marx wishes us to believe, the system has been subverted by criminal acts perpetrated by individuals. They also want you to believe that it is the system at fault in order to cover their tracks.

tis not regulation that is at fault it is the bankers cartel and the protection of the central bank

it is the system that is at fault and its designed to enrich the few

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tis not regulation that is at fault it is the bankers cartel and the protection of the central bank

it is the system that is at fault and its designed to enrich the few

It is a system which outsiders are deliberately made to not understand - and so the majority won't have a clue what's going on....

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IC, yo mean the banks have full and undisclosed info on the direction of shares and markets, its everyone else thats just taking a bet.

Everytime anyone buys a share they are taking a bet aren't they?

All the article really says is "politicians/ regulators/economists good, bankers bad". Is it that simple?

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Everytime anyone buys a share they are taking a bet aren't they?

All the article really says is "politicians/ regulators/economists good, bankers bad". Is it that simple?

well, bankers are there to make loans...not buy stocks with savers money...and certainly not with bailout funds....that was not the intention...then again...course thats what they will do...thats how they earn bonuses....not on boring old loans and shit.

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yep

but that was before the internet

Yes; the internet is going to change things for the better, I hope! It is superb for educating and informing. But it also has its fair share of mis-information too. e.g. "Lady Di was assassinated".

It's a double-edged sword.

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A very big "If". we are in a deflationary spiral and we are witnessing a dead cat bounce.

Exactly. As the article says, all the market rises are due to speculation with the bailout money. The chinese have stopped buying stuff, so why are commodities still high? Workers are earning less, and companies are still laying people off, so why are shares rising? As for house prices, again people are earning less, there are less bonuses, immigrants are returning home and banks are lending less, yet prices are going up. It is a mental dead cat bounce, all the folks who still have money and who'd bought into the perpetual motion machine that the governments and central banks had claimed to have created over the last decade have come out the woodwork for one last fling believing they've grabbed a bargain. They will regret their actions deeply.

Next year motor manufacturing will fall off a cliff as all the spending has been bought forward (and even then production increases have been anemic). The same goes for many commodities, with the chinese having built up a vast reserve of stuff, and the bankers having filled all the empty Oil vessels. The second dip of the W is going to be truly horrendous and we will see savage deflation, and there will be no money and no will to continue spending...depression.

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A very big "If". we are in a deflationary spiral and we are witnessing a dead cat bounce.

Talking about deflation in general. Most of the things I buy are more expensive these days. Some items are 70% more than they were a couple of years ago.

I still can't get the deflation thing. I just don't see it anywhere.

It seems only mortgages and dvd players are getting cheaper.

EDIT: I know this is not a true indication of deflation, but it's just an observation.

Edited by twatmangle

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The past decade or two of ersatz government, media hype, misinformation and negligence has produced a mindset which has obviously not yet entirely lost momentum…

Think about it.....take away the prospect of huge profits IF ONLY YOU SCRIMP AND SAVE for the first twenty years of your working life to get onto the PROPERTY LADDER…

and..well…there really isn't all that much else left to make spending one's life here all that palatable.

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The past decade or two of ersatz government, media hype, misinformation and negligence has produced a mindset which has obviously not yet entirely lost momentum…

Think about it.....take away the prospect of huge profits IF ONLY YOU SCRIMP AND SAVE for the first twenty years of your working life to get onto the PROPERTY LADDER…

and..well…there really isn't all that much else left to make spending one's life here all that palatable.

Property "investment" is THE state religion.

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tis not regulation that is at fault it is the bankers cartel and the protection of the central bank

it is the system that is at fault and its designed to enrich the few

Presumably you have some Utopian alternative and you have posted this on HPC.

Perhaps you can provide a link to your manifesto for me?

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Presumably you have some Utopian alternative and you have posted this on HPC.

Perhaps you can provide a link to your manifesto for me?

I think I can speak out here....Central Banks are the evil here. they provide lifeboat protection for the misdeeds in the private banking system.

with no protection, bankers would be careful. as has been seen, they are 100% protected. Ok some lose a few footsoldiers, but the generals walk, enriched and respected still.

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