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Sybil13

Good Cliff D'arcy Why I Hate High House Prices

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Posted this on the News Blog , didn't know whether to start a thread as there are already some good ones running today but knew if I didn't someone else would and Cliff D'Arcy is always worth a quote . I still refer to his Why Property Prices Still Have a Long Way to Fall printed earlier this year. EVERYTHING that he says in that article is still VERY true today, nothing has changed, just a bit of a blip in buyer sentiment skewiing figures on VERY low numbers, but as Dr Bubb says HPC Link:

Many HPCers are "stuck in the crowd" and influenced heavily by the resurgent mania around them.

(Maybe it is easier for me to be detached from it, living here in Hong Kong - we have our own manias here.)

This will die. And the higher the sentiment swings, the bigger the disappointment and disillusion when it

(eventually) swings back the other way.

When prices are speeding downwards in a few months time, after the rug pull, I will remind people that

the very painful next stage of the crash, would not have been fully possible without the huge surge in false

hopes that we are seeing now.

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Which is quite true of all markets - you remove any semblance of value then there is only one direction go next, with little support - unless some third party throws everything at it. Increasing throwing everything at it is only further damaging medium and long term prospects for the whole economy.

Would the population wake up at the second or third round though when tax increases were 30%, 40%, 50%? Possibly still not until they were in an utterly terminal situation,

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Property prices have already fallen a long way, but nobody on HPC seems to have noticed because the fall has been mainly in mortgage costs, not asking prices.

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I do get the sense that the oil tanker that is peoples' perceptions have changed.

BTL landlords going bankrupt, high-publicity court cases about people who signed a contract to buy and can't complete so are being sued by the developer, stories of flats halving in value, the failed ventures apppearing on Sarah Beeney's programme.

It's a drip drip of bad news and it all adds up. The bull trap is over, the long slow slide begins.

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Property prices have already fallen a long way, but nobody on HPC seems to have noticed because the fall has been mainly in mortgage costs, not asking prices.

:lol:

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Property prices have already fallen a long way, but nobody on HPC seems to have noticed because the fall has been mainly in mortgage costs, not asking prices.

huh? prices need to fall - not everyone needs a mortgage :D

And mortgage costs have arguably gone up.. hsbc 1.99% costs £1199 arrangement fee..

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I do get the sense that the oil tanker that is peoples' perceptions have changed...

it seems to me, based on my anecodatal observations, that they've changed a bit.

'the masses' still think that you can't lose with properdee, and that anyone who's not 'on the ladder' is probably a bit crazy, but they probably also accept that these are troubled times and that you probably won't lose out too badly if you wait a year or two.

in other words, there's been a huge shift but is still a long way to go.

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it seems to me, based on my anecodatal observations, that they've changed a bit.

'the masses' still think that you can't lose with properdee, and that anyone who's not 'on the ladder' is probably a bit crazy, but they probably also accept that these are troubled times and that you probably won't lose out too badly if you wait a year or two.

in other words, there's been a huge shift but is still a long way to go.

Agreed, but the momentum is there. As soon as doubt sets-in people start looking at how big their debts (including mortgage) are.

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