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Brave New World

Don’t Mention The Hpc

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Have decided to throw in the towel on trying to impart the HPC perspective.

Just got home from seeing some friends of which someone I had not seen for a few months said ‘I have been told not to get you onto the housing market’.

Subsequently he has just sold (whether that is completed or merely STC remains to be seen) and he is ‘upgrading’ having made a profit on a house bought in Harrogate 2 years ago.

I did bite initially declaring that he may see this as a bulltrap – didn’t understand the phrase at which point I decided why bother.

My friends have obviously been talking about my views but the thing that gets me is none of them have anything but a superficial knowledge of the market and the fundamental factors that surround it.

It is time I gave up trying to warn people – I used to feel passionately about people being conned into thinking there has never been a better time to buy, from now on I will keep my beliefs to myself.

Does anyone else feel like the have been earmarked as some sort of loony by friends for having these heretic views?

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Bull trap is a stock market term (Unless you're a dyslexic clay shooter :)) I doubt many people outside the finance industry understand it.

Your PoV is not "heretic" its based on your analysis. People generally do not do analysis. They prefer soundbites or clichés like "safe as houses" or "in the long term houses are a good investment". Despite being the biggest financial commitment that they ever make most folk still buy their property based on gut feel or whether the missus likes the carpet.

If you actually like someone enough to care about their future try to explain the risks and the possible outcomes, never claim to be right, simply that you think one outcome is more likely than another. If they change the subject and talk about football then join in and forget it. You are not a professional financial advisor and no-one is paying you for your input.

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Maybe, just maybe, at times you have been guilty of becoming tiresome in your repetition of your views, as many on this forum have been at times....?

There are other things out there to worry about, sometimes!

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To be honest I have only ever spoken about it when other have mentioned the topic. Of which the last 6 months I have purposely not mentioned it when people have talked about moving etc

And in this instance it was actually brought up by someone else, almost with an element of mockery by someone with little to no background knowledge on the subject.

Nevermind.

Oh non frog you lucky so and so living in Montpellier, what is it like? Give it another 30 years and I would love to be out there too. What a beautiful place and surrounding area. What is Narbonne like?

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You have to be careful you don't come over as an obsessive. Exercising patience is quite difficult, especially if the wife is on one's back. I can't see anything dramatic happening until after the election when whoever gets into power will raise taxes and put interest rates up. Then all hell will break loose. However, this damn QE is definitely slowing everything down. Keep the faith and keep schtum would be my advice. Unless you're on this site a lot, NO ONE who owns a house wants to know.

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Farout. I hate discussing house prices with non HPCers.

In 2007 you were a flat earther. In 2008 I didn't want to gloat. This year, one woman told me her London flat was x amount of pounds less than what it was a year earlier. I couldn't be bothered to listen or engage, as she was also trying to tell me to get in quick and make the most of the baaaagains.

baaaa!

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....

Oh non frog you lucky so and so living in Montpellier, what is it like? Give it another 30 years and I would love to be out there too. What a beautiful place and surrounding area. What is Narbonne like?

I think in 30 years the climate change (whatever its cause - I don't have the time to argue :D) will make this city a lot less nice than it is now.

Narbonne is OK - it has (as I'm sure you know) a wonderful cathedral looking out over the city.

We have been walking in the Cevennes today and were discussing what it would be like if there was less water. It was 28C this afternoon and the missus and I are reminded of the problems the wine growers are having due to climate change. On the plus side we had a nice swim this evening (as is our daily habit) in the sea (water temp about 22C) to cool off.

We both really love being here - but to be totally honest I was relieved to be back in the UK last week on business for a week, after a week's trip to Germany. It is too hot here at times. The secret (IMHO) is to buy one of the old stone built houses in the mountains. They have meter thick walls and stay cool. Modern stuff needs air-con and electricity is expensive and getting more so. (We have a modern flat and no air-con :()

I think the Atlantic coast will be the long term winner. Property in the Poitiers area is a steal at the minute and that might be a better target for retirement. If you would like to end up here don't forget that any financial planning should already be in Euro rather than sterling. The missus' aunt lives near us and she and her hubby have lost about a third of their retirement income as they get their money in sterling.

I want to cry when I am in South East England - it is such a sh1t hole. A friend (Irish) recently put an offer in on a place in west London (£440K - she has pulled out due to legal issues) it would have scared me silly. These are troubled times and the future is uncertain. This is hiding place for us right now, but I have no idea what the next 12 months will bring TBH.

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