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Us Unemployment - Full Picture Is Worse Than Greenshoots Brigade Would Have You Believe

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As amazing as it seems, inquiring minds are interested in hats and rabbit, more specifically, "How Many Rabbits Are Left In The Hat?"

Dave Rosenberg was rabbits and hats in Friday's Lunch With Dave, NOT LABOUR’S DAY.

While the Obama economics team is pulling rabbits out of the hat to revive autos and housing, there is nothing they can really do about employment; barring legislation that would prevent companies from continuing to adjust their staffing requirements to the new world order of credit contraction. While nonfarm payrolls were basically in line with the consensus, declining 216,000 in August, there were downward revisions of 49,000 and the details were simply awful. The fact that 65% of companies are still in the process of cutting their staff loads is quite disturbing — even manufacturing employment fell 63,000 in August, to its lowest level since April 1941 (!), despite the inventory replenishment in the automotive sector and all the excitement over the recent 50+ print in the ballyhooed ISM index. The fact that temp agency employment is still declining, albeit at a slower pace, alongside the flat workweek and jobless claims stuck at 570,000, are all foreshadowing continued weakness in the labour market ahead. Until we see signs of a sustained turnaround in the jobs market all bets are off over the sustainability of any economic recovery.

What was really key were the details of the Household Survey, which provide a rather alarming picture of what is happening in the labour market.

First, employment in this survey showed a plunge of 392,000, but that number was flattered by a surge in self-employment (whether these newly minted consultants were making any money is another story) as wage & salary workers (the ones that work at companies, big and small) plunged 637,000 — the largest decline since March (when the stock market was testing its lows for the cycle). As an aside, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also publishes a number from the Household survey that is comparable to the nonfarm survey (dubbed the population and payroll-adjusted Household number), and on this basis, employment sank — brace yourself — by over 1 million, which is unprecedented. We shall see if the nattering nabobs of positivity discuss that particularly statistic in their post-payroll assessments; we are not exactly holding our breath.

Second, the unemployment rate jumped to 9.7% from 9.4% in July, the highest since June 1983 and at the pace it is rising, it will pierce the post-WWII high of 10.8% in time for next year’s midterm election. And, this has nothing to do with a swelling labour force, which normally accompanies a turnaround in the jobs market — the ranks of the unemployed surged 466,000 last month.

Full article at: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...eft-in-hat.html

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Have a relative over from LA. She reports that since March this year, there has been a steadily increasing horde of well qualified people desperate for a shift at the front desk for the business she works in. This is something they have never seen before. There is not even a position available (let alone advertised and available).

The statistical World seems to be increasingly diverging from the real World

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Thank god someone has questioned the news put out with the jobs numbers. The unemployment rate went from 9.4% to 9.7%, which is 0.3% of the 150 million or so fit for work, i.e. 450,000 - NOT the 216,000 they were quoting. There's nothing upbeat about these numbers - we've resumed the slide downwards IMHO.

Look at all the stories around now - the offical line looking for something to blame for the lack of recovery. It was going to be another oil spike but perhaps oil will behave itself through 2010 and won't present an opportunity to attract blame. Now you can see Darling and Geithner shuffling around, saying that if France and Germany withdraw stimulus, it'll send the global economy into a tailspin.

It's going there anyway. For anyone who didn't pick up on the Prechter link I posted yesterday, listen to this:

Participation in this crash is optional

Edited by AvidFan

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Look at all the stories around now - the offical line looking for something to blame for the lack of recovery. It was going to be another oil spike but perhaps oil will behave itself through 2010 and won't present an opportunity to attract blame. Now you can see Darling and Geithner shuffling around, saying that if France and Germany withdraw stimulus, it'll send the global economy into a tailspin.

They will be praying for swine flu to break out this winter.

However considering we are having a jobless recovery what did you expect? Unemployment to go down, if it did then we wouldn't be having a jobless recovery and we'd all have been lied to.

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Thank god someone has questioned the news put out with the jobs numbers. The unemployment rate went from 9.4% to 9.7%, which is 0.3% of the 150 million or so fit for work, i.e. 450,000 - NOT the 216,000 they were quoting. There's nothing upbeat about these numbers - we've resumed the slide downwards IMHO.

Look at all the stories around now - the offical line looking for something to blame for the lack of recovery. It was going to be another oil spike but perhaps oil will behave itself through 2010 and won't present an opportunity to attract blame. Now you can see Darling and Geithner shuffling around, saying that if France and Germany withdraw stimulus, it'll send the global economy into a tailspin.

It's going there anyway. For anyone who didn't pick up on the Prechter link I posted yesterday, listen to this:

Participation in this crash is optional

Thank you, AvidFan. It was an excellent and fascinating interview, even though I didn't agree with everything he said. I hope others will take the trouble to listen. :)

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