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The Masked Tulip

Are People Losing Their Jobs?

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I remember both the 1980s and early 1990s recession in the UK.

I remember how in the early 1990s there wEre constant news reports of businesses going bust, even to the point of having true blue Tory business owners from the Thames Valley appearing on the news telling the Government how they had c*cked it all up and how bad things were.

The 1980s, except for the South East of England, were tragic for Wales, Scotland and the North of England. Vast areas of the UK became deserts of the jobless and things got very depressing.

I mention all of the above because there simply does not appear to be the same problem now in my part of the World - what is it like where you are?

Is this recession mainly one of the South East of England - if so, how bad is it there? - and perhaps also one of the car companies in the Midlands?

Is the Public Sector dominated areas of Wales, Scotland and Northern England carrying on regardless, oblivious to what is happening in the wider economy?

I am off for brekkie now.

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I remember both the 1980s and early 1990s recession in the UK.

I remember how in the early 1990s there wEre constant news reports of businesses going bust, even to the point of having true blue Tory business owners from the Thames Valley appearing on the news telling the Government how they had c*cked it all up and how bad things were.

The 1980s, except for the South East of England, were tragic for Wales, Scotland and the North of England. Vast areas of the UK became deserts of the jobless and things got very depressing.

I mention all of the above because there simply does not appear to be the same problem now in my part of the World - what is it like where you are?

Is this recession mainly one of the South East of England - if so, how bad is it there? - and perhaps also one of the car companies in the Midlands?

Is the Public Sector dominated areas of Wales, Scotland and Northern England carrying on regardless, oblivious to what is happening in the wider economy?

I am off for brekkie now.

Two words "government stimulus" puts off the day of reckoning but only puts it off. Real economy is only just starting to feel the pain. There is worse to come.

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I can tell you from the ground that industrial estates have been emptying. It's been a mix of companies i.e. Lehmans, Corus and many smaller ones. A lot of people have been made redundant after 20+ years work, and others are due for the chop soon. Some are going bust and others are moving abroad for cheaper costs.

It's very grim for a minority. The remaining majority are ok... for now.

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I was talking to the owner of a HR business (where companies outsource HR to) and it is a quite sizeable business and deals with a lot of companies. She said end of 2008 and jan feb 09 80% of her work was redundanices. Then Mar, Apr, May all her work was negotiating wage reductions instead of redundancies and now june jul august 80% of her work is recruitment. She said the only problem is that firms are being very fussy and want top quality people with the 100% correct experience and it was very difficult to get these people eventhough there are a lot of unemployed.

In summary she said firms 1) got rid of all wasters who did not pull thier weight 2) then cut the cost base of the remaining business 3) look to bring in new top quality talent ready for the upturn.

So very different to the 80's when the unions played a big part in the mass redundancies by refusing wage cuts and not being flexible.

Just to add this is in Birmingham which has been an unemployment blackspot in the current recession.

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I remember both the 1980s and early 1990s recession in the UK.

I remember how in the early 1990s there wEre constant news reports of businesses going bust, even to the point of having true blue Tory business owners from the Thames Valley appearing on the news telling the Government how they had c*cked it all up and how bad things were.

The 1980s, except for the South East of England, were tragic for Wales, Scotland and the North of England. Vast areas of the UK became deserts of the jobless and things got very depressing.

I mention all of the above because there simply does not appear to be the same problem now in my part of the World - what is it like where you are?

Is this recession mainly one of the South East of England - if so, how bad is it there? - and perhaps also one of the car companies in the Midlands?

Is the Public Sector dominated areas of Wales, Scotland and Northern England carrying on regardless, oblivious to what is happening in the wider economy?

I am off for brekkie now.

£175 billion of fiscal stimulus puts a very different picture on things. Plus when Thatcher destroyed manufacturing in the 80's this was highly visible - mile after mile of closed factories up and down the country. The loss of jobs in the finance sector is nowhere near as visual - the occassional banker with a cardboard box leaving Canary Wharf or a call-centre johnny trudging up the road in isolation doesn't as sharply convey the effects of a downturn in quite the same way.

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The days are gone, when there was a shortage of people to do a job in the construction game. Now theres a shortage of work, companies and agencies want only the best, meaning the qualified with experience.

This suits me, because all the chancers are getting found out and they appear to be carrying big mortgages along with big outlay.

Now is crunch time, people need x amount pounds per week to service their debts to survive, but they have to accept they are not worth it and will only get paid what someone is prepared to pay them. Ive heard plenty of stories, where people need to clear a £1,000 a week to keep up their mortgage payments and the up-keep of their big cars etc.

The next few months are gonna be interesting, and I could'nt care aless Ive made my money and put enough to one side to get through many months of bad sh!t.

Roll on November, because this is when the work gets really tight right through to March and people will be sh!tting themselves, all because they tried to live their lives out of the OK Magazine :rolleyes:

Edited by spark1

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I live on a town built around an industrial estate.............hard to call it an industrial estate lately as its more like a ghost town - smashed windows and TO LET boards have replaced company logos and signs. Its been slowly happening for a long time now with the steady decline of UK manufacturing, but the rate has certainly increased in the last year...........and yet people still believe their £100,000 council houses are actually worth that and not the pre bubble levels of £30,000........and those prices were when the town was thriving, not the corpse of a town that remains today.

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I agree with TMT that this does not feel like a hard recession. However, the fact is the unemployment rate appears to be increasing by the rate of one quarter of a million people every quarter of the year for some time now. If it continues, then we will be seeing some severe impact.

The combination of government stimulus plus the mass media feeling somehow obliged to try to report positive news rather than be factual (hence the lack of daily factory closure stories and numbers as we saw in the 80s) goes a long way to explaining the sentiment. But it is just htat - sentiment - and the facts are a lot of people are losing their jobs and goernment debt is massively increasing and the massive personal/business debt continues to exist. I therefoe think that sentiment will change when the facts hit home, but the delaying tactics are working so it doesn't feel so bad right now (and also the weather...wait until mid winter and people will be feeling much gloomier anyway).

Oh dear, feeling a bit gloomier myself now after posting that - I can smell Yorkshire pud though, off for lunch...

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I agree with TMT that this does not feel like a hard recession. However, the fact is the unemployment rate appears to be increasing by the rate of one quarter of a million people every quarter of the year for some time now. If it continues, then we will be seeing some severe impact.

The combination of government stimulus plus the mass media feeling somehow obliged to try to report positive news rather than be factual (hence the lack of daily factory closure stories and numbers as we saw in the 80s) goes a long way to explaining the sentiment.

Telegraph reports numbers daily:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...job-losses.html

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The days are gone, when there was a shortage of people to do a job in the construction game. Now theres a shortage of work

The construction firm I work for has just won a huge order to do work on the new Pembroke (South Wales) power station.

Our contract manager's mobile phone is ringing ceaselessly with out of work tradesmen desperately trying to get a start on this project. We can now get skilled tradesmen for 25 - 30% off 2007 hourly rates.

I've been in construction (major projects) since '81 there has never been such a sudden and brutal decline in activity as this one - fact!

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I agree with TMT that this does not feel like a hard recession. However, the fact is the unemployment rate appears to be increasing by the rate of one quarter of a million people every quarter of the year for some time now. If it continues, then we will be seeing some severe impact.

The combination of government stimulus plus the mass media feeling somehow obliged to try to report positive news rather than be factual (hence the lack of daily factory closure stories and numbers as we saw in the 80s) goes a long way to explaining the sentiment. But it is just htat - sentiment - and the facts are a lot of people are losing their jobs and goernment debt is massively increasing and the massive personal/business debt continues to exist. I therefoe think that sentiment will change when the facts hit home, but the delaying tactics are working so it doesn't feel so bad right now (and also the weather...wait until mid winter and people will be feeling much gloomier anyway).

Oh dear, feeling a bit gloomier myself now after posting that - I can smell Yorkshire pud though, off for lunch...

I wonder whether it is because the TV news companies are traditionally biased towards Labour whereas, in the early 90s, they had a grudge against the Tories.

It has a feel of the 'phoney recession' in my part of the World - private sector is feeling it but the private sector is so tiny and the public sector is carrying on regardless... the recession seems as if it is something that is happened in a far-off place... in Southern England... in the US.... but not here in Wales.

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The days are gone, when there was a shortage of people to do a job in the construction game. Now theres a shortage of work, companies and agencies want only the best, meaning the qualified with experience.

This suits me, because all the chancers are getting found out and they appear to be carrying big mortgages along with big outlay.

Now is crunch time, people need x amount pounds per week to service their debts to survive, but they have to accept they are not worth it and will only get paid what someone is prepared to pay them. Ive heard plenty of stories, where people need to clear a £1,000 a week to keep up their mortgage payments and the up-keep of their big cars etc.

The next few months are gonna be interesting, and I could'nt care aless Ive made my money and put enough to one side to get through many months of bad sh!t.

Roll on November, because this is when the work gets really tight right through to March and people will be sh!tting themselves, all because they tried to live their lives out of the OK Magazine :rolleyes:

You're all heart.

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I wonder whether it is because the TV news companies are traditionally biased towards Labour whereas, in the early 90s, they had a grudge against the Tories.

It has a feel of the 'phoney recession' in my part of the World - private sector is feeling it but the private sector is so tiny and the public sector is carrying on regardless... the recession seems as if it is something that is happened in a far-off place... in Southern England... in the US.... but not here in Wales.

If it's specific to Wales then yes, probably something to do with the level of public sector employment - although those cuts will almost certainly come after the election.

In the south east where I am there is little feel of hard times, for the reasons I said earlier.

I remember opening a factory in Wales (Brynmwr) shortly after the last recession. It was pretty grim. We recruited mainly via the local back to work scheme - a load of people in their late teens early 20s who, until then, had felt no prospect of ever getting a job. They were extremely grateful of a job and consequently were in the main superb employees (once we sorted out a few drink/drug problems). Unfortunately we got taken over a few years later and I had the nasty job of shutting the factory down (and losing my own job too). I organised a leaving party for all of us - my wife says it was the most emotional party she's ever been too - it was the sheer expressions of gratitude for the chance of work, the training we gave them and some respect. A lot of tears all round. My point is, it is easy to forget how joblessness can impact on the self and the community.

My other point is government policy has not encouraged manufacturing jobs - ie. jobs which can employ large numbers of non-graduates - and hence I think when it really hits, it's going to be worse this time.

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I was talking to the owner of a HR business (where companies outsource HR to) and it is a quite sizeable business and deals with a lot of companies. She said end of 2008 and jan feb 09 80% of her work was redundanices. Then Mar, Apr, May all her work was negotiating wage reductions instead of redundancies and now june jul august 80% of her work is recruitment. She said the only problem is that firms are being very fussy and want top quality people with the 100% correct experience and it was very difficult to get these people eventhough there are a lot of unemployed.

In summary she said firms 1) got rid of all wasters who did not pull thier weight 2) then cut the cost base of the remaining business 3) look to bring in new top quality talent ready for the upturn.

So very different to the 80's when the unions played a big part in the mass redundancies by refusing wage cuts and not being flexible.

Just to add this is in Birmingham which has been an unemployment blackspot in the current recession.

I agree. The jobs market is fine if you are any good and have a decent CV.

To be frankly most firms are shaking out the rubbish performers and unncessary layers of managers.

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I agree. The jobs market is fine if you are any good and have a decent CV.

To be frankly most firms are shaking out the rubbish performers and unncessary layers of managers.

Depends what you do! If you are an out of work real estate lawyer, or structure CDO's for a living then you are fvcked.

A few things are sheltering people this time:

1. Dual income. Lots of people "getting by" on one salary

2. More generious benefits (particularly mortgage support)

3. Very low interest rates (for some)

4. Savings/Credit cards. Most professional people (and in some respects they are the hardest hit this time around) have substantial savings or if not savings at least big pre-approved limits on credit cards. This enables them to keep "getting by" for a few months. They also tend to get bigger severance packages.

As I have said before on here. The government has gone "all in" with the stimulus package. If they can get growth going again within the next 6 months we might just get away with a lucky escape (albeit many years of weird, patchy, subdued growth are ahead of us until the debt comes down and the fiscal drag can come out of the system). If they can't turn it around then we are seriously, utterly, cap in hand to the IMF level fecked.

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I live on a town built around an industrial estate.............hard to call it an industrial estate lately as its more like a ghost town - smashed windows and TO LET boards have replaced company logos and signs. Its been slowly happening for a long time now with the steady decline of UK manufacturing, but the rate has certainly increased in the last year...........and yet people still believe their £100,000 council houses are actually worth that and not the pre bubble levels of £30,000........and those prices were when the town was thriving, not the corpse of a town that remains today.

These small estates are where the rump of many of the real wealth and growth inducing companies reside. They have companies of varying, but small to middling size, a few of which may later expand and have good ideas/products lines to create larger companies and greater levels of employment later on.

When these companies fold there is only a mention in the local press. This is one of the main reasons why this time round we don't hear about the large losses, those large manufacturing companies employing UK productive labour simply no longer exist. No doubt the large majority of the owners of such site will still demand punitive rent based on inflated valuations. They will remain empty and these fixed costs have played a large part in first the stagnation and then the destruction of the manufacturing sector. Worse the source of funds for new start-ups is diminishing. The tech boom wiped out smaller investor capital, it hasn't come back. The banks in the interim would lend any amount to property based speculation but small business was there to be fleeced, with high charges and loans rates. There will be some fun and games on some industrial sites to force out what is left and release the whole site for brownfield development such is the skewing effort of land development/planning laws. There is a terminal death grip round this sector the simplistic and pathetic devalue our way to competitiveness stance of the central bank is so asinine it is untrue. These isolated pen pushing, rigged chart following chumps do not have one shred of acceptance of the reality they they themselves have foisted on the economy and these sorts of companies, they are still in utter denial. They are still backtracking after bailing out the banks and the signs are that nothing will change, this sector is knackered.

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So very different to the 80's when the unions played a big part in the mass redundancies by refusing wage cuts and not being flexible.

oh boy what a fool....the unions were smashed in the 80s and could not put up the fight...thatcherism was the inflexible one not the unions..selective memory?

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oh boy what a fool....the unions were smashed in the 80s and could not put up the fight...thatcherism was the inflexible one not the unions..selective memory?

I think your the fool.....unions in the 80s negotiated some eye watering redundancy payments due to their negotiating powers, for example each London docker received on average £50,000 pay off, most went out and purchased property with the money. Unions weren't smashed until late 80/90s.

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Certainly here (Thames Valley) there have been very few redundancys I don't know anyone with a 9-5 who has lost it. I know a few people in construction who bear out pretty much what has been said here rates are 0-60% down depending on who you are.

Most people just bragging about how cheap their mortage is ..

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