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1929crash

$200 Bbl Oil Soon - Forecast

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Jeff Rubin believes that oil prices are going to escalate much higher. In his book Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller, Rubin foretells $200 oil and a vastly transformed global economic picture coming into focus very soon.

The premise of Rubin's book is that oil is a finite resource and so-called "easy" oil is waning. Inevitably production will be unable to keep up with the growing demand worldwide, and the price of oil will skyrocket.

The chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Canada for 20 years, Rubin correctly predicted the price of oil reaching $50 in 2005 and $100 in 2007. No one believed him then, either.

"There continues to be widespread skepticism regarding my oil price forecast," Rubin told Rigzone. "As I noted in the book, few people have ever changed their minds during the entire history of the peak oil debate, at least insofar as 'experts' are concerned."

Peak Oil Pushes New Frontiers

Pointing out that 1966 was the peak in the discovery of new oil fields, Rubin also states that production declines every year by about 4 million barrels per day because of depletion. In order to replace what is currently being pumped, the industry must in the next five years discover reserves that will top 20 million barrels of oil a day.

In an effort to replace production, exploration and development have been pushed to much harder to produce ultra-deepwaters and equally difficult to refine oil sands. While new developments have been made to enable production from the ulta-deepwaters of the Gulf of Mexico and the oil sands of Canada and Venezuela, these resources come at a price.

In addition to the industry striving to generate emerging (and costly) technologies to overcome the rigors of working in waters that are more than a mile deep, Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Ike and more have proven the Gulf of Mexico a volatile investment, with mega-projects, miles and miles of pipelines, and refineries delayed and even destroyed due to these storms.

Additionally, while Rubin expects Canadian oil sand production to increase to 4 million barrels a day, the heavy oil "must be processed extensively to become a usable motor fuel … done through an extensive cracking process that is much more costly and energy intensive than cracking light sweet crude."

According to Rubin, the cost of developing and producing a new oil sands project in Canada can reach up to $90 a barrel. While interest in heavy oils was peaked with the 2008 peak in oil prices, the subsequent plummet of oil prices reduced investments in the product.

"When prices plunged during the recession, over $50 billion of scheduled investment in the oil sands were suddenly cancelled," Rubin told Rigzone.

While Rubin contends that the global economic recession was caused by the peak in oil prices, he also believes that the price of oil is destined to rise again. Increasing demand for a depleting supply is certain to push the price of oil higher

Full article at: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_...0044&hmpn=1

Edited by 1929crash

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Unless the boffins knock their heads together and come up with an alternative viable energy source.... Tesla, anyone?

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Impossible surely, given the recent 'massive' oil field discovered off the coast of Mexico. :)

Which wouldn't last long, and may actually be full of natural gas. :lol:

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Unless the boffins knock their heads together and come up with an alternative viable energy source.... Tesla, anyone?

If knocking heads together was all it took, we'd be sorted.

The article is sound, worldwide supply unable to meet demand at current prices, very, very, soon, 100% guaranteed. Protect yourselves!

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Impossible surely, given the recent 'massive' oil field discovered off the coast of Mexico. :)

Enough to supply the world for 17 days, apparently. Enough to do a weekly shop, visit the rels and still have time for a week at the seaside.

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Rubbish article. It basically looks at supply side only and assumes demand as a fixed variable. We all know when oil hit $150, Americans started driving less and bought fuel efficient vehicles and the Chinese state closed its oldest and least energy efficient factories.

In short as price goes up, demand goes down. Same goes for houses. You'd think most people on HPC Forum would understand that by now.

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When is 'soon'?

I'd bet on $25 before $200.

Hmm

cannot see that, just aint gonna happen.

I have been a Peak Oil aware for about 7 years now and have gone through all the fazes and now except that we are flucked unless the UK can get it's population down and our dear leaders take there head out there assholes. I just came across a peak oil book i have never read before - Oil apocalypse - by Vernon Coleman - so far it is the best Peak oil book i ever read and it is done from a UK point of view, He seems to think that either our elected MP's are either (some) blissfully unaware or thinks science will save us - the others whom know are of the mind that there is no easy way to tell the public so they let the show continue although knowing it will all fall down. He also says that Global warming and terrorism is the least of our worries - which leads me to believe what i thought all along - that GW is a smokescreen for our energy decline.

Whats quite interesting is he talks about the economic effects of peak oil and they seem to mirror what is happening right at this very moment in time. I tend to agree - less energy available to run call centers and what little we still manufacture will have hard hitting effects.

I wont go as far as saying peak oil created this global recession but i think it did not help and had something to do with the current finacial situation. Coleman seems to think that we will get increased unemployment gradually until large swathes of the population will be out of work and the state not being able to cover it's benefits budget, Vernon paints a very dark picture of the future. The only part is disagree with in his book is that the UK will feel the pain more than almost any other country - because we are an island with scant food security. I was perplexed on newsnight a few weeks back when they had the head of the NFU and soon 30 something journo whom has just wrote a book on the merits of globalization. The journo seems to think that we should abandon food production in the UK and import all our food needs from Brazil after buying up huge swathes of land there as well as Ukriane!!! I was gob smacked!!!!

There is no doubt in my mind that we have entered our energy decent.

One more thing, i was talking to my doctor last week and we got talking about the recession and what toll it has had on many of the people he see's. I told him that i think this is the beginning of an energy crunch - he asked if i was a peak oiler - LOL

I said yes, he told me so was he and was reading a lot of books on the subject. He told me his brother was a Geologist in the oil and Gas industry and that his brother and others have been told to keep a lid on things.

That is proof in the pudding for me - why would my doctor lie about such a thing.

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Enough to supply the world for 17 days, apparently. Enough to do a weekly shop, visit the rels and still have time for a week at the seaside.

Yeah but it got the anti peak oil squad jumping up and down for a little while.

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Rubbish article. It basically looks at supply side only and assumes demand as a fixed variable. We all know when oil hit $150, Americans started driving less and bought fuel efficient vehicles and the Chinese state closed its oldest and least energy efficient factories.

In short as price goes up, demand goes down. Same goes for houses. You'd think most people on HPC Forum would understand that by now.

this.

oil can't go too the moon, doing so is its own demise.

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What is a fixed variable?

Seems like an unduly confusing contradiction in terms.

Rubbish article. It basically looks at supply side only and assumes demand as a fixed variable. We all know when oil hit $150, Americans started driving less and bought fuel efficient vehicles and the Chinese state closed its oldest and least energy efficient factories.

In short as price goes up, demand goes down. Same goes for houses. You'd think most people on HPC Forum would understand that by now.

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Rubbish article. It basically looks at supply side only and assumes demand as a fixed variable. We all know when oil hit $150, Americans started driving less and bought fuel efficient vehicles and the Chinese state closed its oldest and least energy efficient factories.

In short as price goes up, demand goes down. Same goes for houses. You'd think most people on HPC Forum would understand that by now.

Demand for oil is inelastic, not just because of personal transportation, but because of the myriad uses(of which you are obviously unaware) of oil for which there is no substitute - petrochemicals, pesticides for modern agriculture and medicines.

It takes 16 calories of fossil fuels, chiefly oil and natural gas, to produce one calorie of food. When are you going to give up eating?

Edited by 1929crash

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Demand for oil is inelastic, not just because of personal transportation, but because of the myriad uses(of which you are obviously unaware) of oil for which there is no substitute - petrochemicals, pesticides for modern agriculture and medicines.

It takes 16 calories of fossil fuels, chiefly oil and natural gas, to produce one calorie of food. When are you going to give up eating?

surely that'd be back to tin foil hat territory eventually then though.

price would become menaingless.

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Hmm

cannot see that, just aint gonna happen.

Ok, you're looking at the fundy mentals.

They haven't changed much between it being $147 a barrel, $35 and back up to $70.

I'm looking at the price - which I see dropping back to $25 before ever hitting $200 (whenever that may be). Once it gets down there someone will have a fundy mentals reason for it going there.

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Rubbish article. It basically looks at supply side only and assumes demand as a fixed variable. We all know when oil hit $150, Americans started driving less and bought fuel efficient vehicles and the Chinese state closed its oldest and least energy efficient factories.

All that that indicates to me is that economic activity is intimately linked to the price of oil (aka energy).

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Unless the boffins knock their heads together and come up with an alternative viable energy source.... Tesla, anyone?

Free energy - FBI - confiscation of papers?

Yeah, why not?

The drug cartels, via the AMA & FDA, did the same to those who knew/know that certain electrical frequencies cure most ailments.

.............................

Oilman neighbour was muttering about getting the 'latest find' (which he says has been known about for years) out of the ground fast enough. One rig, cost, depth, blah, blah.

Then OH said 'demand destruction' & oilman agrees & says "Are you ready for the real crash?". Then he goes back to peak oil....... Anyone know how you do both, other than currency collapse? :blink:

Edited by Laura

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Hmm

cannot see that, just aint gonna happen.

I have been a Peak Oil aware for about 7 years now and have gone through all the fazes and now except that we are flucked unless the UK can get it's population down and our dear leaders take there head out there assholes. I just came across a peak oil book i have never read before - Oil apocalypse - by Vernon Coleman - so far it is the best Peak oil book i ever read and it is done from a UK point of view, He seems to think that either our elected MP's are either (some) blissfully unaware or thinks science will save us - the others whom know are of the mind that there is no easy way to tell the public so they let the show continue although knowing it will all fall down. He also says that Global warming and terrorism is the least of our worries - which leads me to believe what i thought all along - that GW is a smokescreen for our energy decline.

Whats quite interesting is he talks about the economic effects of peak oil and they seem to mirror what is happening right at this very moment in time. I tend to agree - less energy available to run call centers and what little we still manufacture will have hard hitting effects.

I wont go as far as saying peak oil created this global recession but i think it did not help and had something to do with the current finacial situation. Coleman seems to think that we will get increased unemployment gradually until large swathes of the population will be out of work and the state not being able to cover it's benefits budget, Vernon paints a very dark picture of the future. The only part is disagree with in his book is that the UK will feel the pain more than almost any other country - because we are an island with scant food security. I was perplexed on newsnight a few weeks back when they had the head of the NFU and soon 30 something journo whom has just wrote a book on the merits of globalization. The journo seems to think that we should abandon food production in the UK and import all our food needs from Brazil after buying up huge swathes of land there as well as Ukriane!!! I was gob smacked!!!!

There is no doubt in my mind that we have entered our energy decent.

One more thing, i was talking to my doctor last week and we got talking about the recession and what toll it has had on many of the people he see's. I told him that i think this is the beginning of an energy crunch - he asked if i was a peak oiler - LOL

I said yes, he told me so was he and was reading a lot of books on the subject. He told me his brother was a Geologist in the oil and Gas industry and that his brother and others have been told to keep a lid on things.

That is proof in the pudding for me - why would my doctor lie about such a thing.

I dont see $200 this year unless a war or something but $200 is very likley within 5 years if things return to some kind of normal its a no brainer its going up but to what and when I will leave that to the experts

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