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Dorkins

Bearish Video From Jean-paul Rodrigue

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Just watched a video of a recent lecture given by Jean-Paul Rodrigue, the economist responsible for the bubble graph which is so often posted on here. It was very bearish about the near future (he completely dismisses the stimulus packages) but made some interesting suggestions about long term re-industrialisation in the importer nations (i.e. Britain and America) as part of rebalancing the global economy.

The video (44min):

http://www.opticvi.org/?q=node/72

His blog:

http://people.hofstra.edu/jean-paul_rodrigue/jpr_blogs.html

That graph:

bubblesandmanias.gif

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BUMP

The global economy will have to rebalance.

Stimulus packages are macro-economic fraud - they cannot delay the inevitable.

Peak Growth is upon us, we will move from a growth model of development to one of regionalisation.

Regionalisation of globalisation - less consumption, more production within regional manufacturing hubs.

Credit storm is over - now it is the macro-economic storm.

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BUMP

The global economy will have to rebalance.

Stimulus packages are macro-economic fraud - they cannot delay the inevitable.

Peak Growth is upon us, we will move from a growth model of development to one of regionalisation.

Regionalisation of globalisation - less consumption, more production within regional manufacturing hubs.

Credit storm is over - now it is the macro-economic storm.

Anyone find a link to his presentation - hard to make out in the video but looks to be worth exploring.

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Thanks for the last Barely Legal.

Once you get the ear in for the accent he is quite an engaging speaker.

He raises some interesting points that I've attempted to discuss before but didn't get very far with largely I think because I didn't explain myself myself very well. He says that dumb money went into infrastructure and capacity and that this actually acts as a subsidy for anyone who can arrange things such that it is used. It was my understanding, perhaps wrong, that this is true of nearly all infrastructure projects. The people who built the railways (internationally I mean) went broke eventually. The people who bought them went broke. The people who bought them went broke. And it was only down the line that someone actually made money from them. I think the same is true of fiber optic in the ground (Virgin are I think around the 5th or 6th owners of the bit this is coming to you over) and might say its partly true of dotcom.

Which makes me wonder if infrastructure investments of that type are not simply too expensive for a world without leverage. Yet we feel the benefit of them generations after (the Pyramids have probably paid off for Egypt by now). Which is a slightly different take on the borrowing from the future argument (and, shockingly, I've just realised was Gordon Brown's argument about borrowing in the old days... I feel a bit weird now).

Of course in deregulation mad loony neo-liberal Britain we've had the worst possible kind of misallocation into nasty little flats in the wrong places that nobody wants to live in. Thats a loss that will have to be swallowed whole with no redeeming features. If only it had been a highspeed railway or something instead.

Edited by Cogs

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