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BrickandMortar

Halifax: July Mom Up 1.1% Yoy -12.1%

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wow. either attention seeking or just a little dim ;)

come back monday for more news!

-yes, Monday according to Forex.

Probably delayed as there’s a rumour that someone might actually sell a house today and they need this to bump up the average!

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OK - and what about August?

Just as irrelevant - until approvals double, these figures serve only to give the bulls a semi...

<_<

yes, Monday according to Forex.

Probably delayed as there’s a rumour that someone might actually sell a house today and they need this to bump up the average!

Precisely.

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Just as irrelevant - until approvals double, these figures serve only to give the bulls a semi...

<_<

Precisely.

In that case why have "bears" been ejaculating merrily over the last 18 months over crunching falls using similarly low levels of transactions? Moreover, if the Halifax shows a fall next week will you be recommending caution on the basis of the number of sales?

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Just as irrelevant - until approvals double, these figures serve only to give the bulls a semi...

<_<

Precisely.

In that case why have "bears" been ejaculating merrily over the last 18 months over crunching falls using similarly low levels of transactions? Moreover, if the Halifax shows a fall next week will you be recommending caution on the basis of the number of sales?

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i agree that low transaction volume means there could be disparity skewing the supply/demand ratio, however all the talk that these low figures mean the haliwide data is too noisy to be relevant is complete garbage. A doubling (or conversely halving) of the amount of data in this sort of analysis has a tiny effect on the noise. In order to see a significant reduction in the noise you'd have to be talking about a 10x increase in sample size. So the noise in the data is about the same as it was a few years ago, which means prices on the whole are going up right now. That's what the idiots will do until they run out of cash.

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In that case why have "bears" been ejaculating merrily over the last 18 months over crunching falls using similarly low levels of transactions? Moreover, if the Halifax shows a fall next week will you be recommending caution on the basis of the number of sales?

The Hali/wide spokespeople themselves have warned about us reading too much into these figures at such low volumes;

I agree, some bears will likewise read too much into the falls, but the fundamentals remain: house prices are still too high to be sustained in an awful economic climate.

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In that case why have "bears" been ejaculating merrily over the last 18 months over crunching falls using similarly low levels of transactions? Moreover, if the Halifax shows a fall next week will you be recommending caution on the basis of the number of sales?

I only bother with quarterly figures. Everything else is just noise.

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The Hali/wide spokespeople themselves have warned about us reading too much into these figures at such low volumes;

Fine - that they have, but the point is that there has to be consistency. What seems to happen on this site however is that any rises in price are not statistically acceptable due to the low number of sales used to make up the sample while a drop in prices is more grist to the HPC mill.

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