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Will Bercow be portrayed as “Labour’s candidate�

Just reflecting further overnight about the announcement that UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, will fight John Bercow, in Buckingham I’ve come to the view that the 4/1 that’s available is one of the best general elections bets about.

Firstly try to envisage how the campaign will work in this true-blue seat at the election. Because there will be no official Conservative candidate the Farage campaign will be able to present their man as the only “True Tory†in the race while suggesting that Bercow is Labour’s man.

The UKIP leader will get many high profile Tory endorsements - you can see people like Norman Tebbit campaigning on his behalf. At the same time electors will be reminded, fairly or unfairly, how it was Labour MPs who secured the speaker’s job for their MP.

The diverse and mostly rural seat of Buckingham will attract a lot of UKIP activist support to enable them to stage an effective ground war.

This will be supported by Farage featuring a fair bit in the national campaign and will certainly have a much higher media profile than Bercow. UKIP, as the broadcasters will be reminded repeatedly, came second in the EU elections in June and the BBC decision to exclude UKIP from the candidate debate in Norwich North will be thrown back at them.

I know many will look at the SNP and other failed challenges that Michael Martin faced in 2005 in Glasgow NE as evidence to suggest that serving speakers get re-elected. But Martin did not have a figure with as high as profile as Farage facing him and we hadn’t had the MPs expenses scandal.

Finally Farage will be a much more engaging and personable candidate than the sometimes awkward Bercow

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php...-in-buckingham/

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It's a gamble, but a smart one. Farage gets to stand in a seat with a fair amount of "natural" UKIP leaning and people don't need to feel guilty about splitting the Tory vote and letting Lab/Lib sneak through.

It's also one where loyalty to the sitting MP might be weaker because he's portrayed as an outsider to his former party.

And he's playing the anti-big party politician card.

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It's a gamble, but a smart one. Farage gets to stand in a seat with a fair amount of "natural" UKIP leaning and people don't need to feel guilty about splitting the Tory vote and letting Lab/Lib sneak through.

It's also one where loyalty to the sitting MP might be weaker because he's portrayed as an outsider to his former party.

And he's playing the anti-big party politician card.

I have to say this could be as interesting as the Galloway/Oona King contest in 2005. I am tempted to put down a little wager on the outcome.

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To be honest it smacks of opportunism to stand in seat which none of the other parties will be contesting and were the sitting MP will be limited on how he can campaign for fear of comprising his neutrality as Speaker.

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To be honest it smacks of opportunism to stand in seat which none of the other parties will be contesting and were the sitting MP will be limited on how he can campaign for fear of comprising his neutrality as Speaker.

Spot on.

Do I recall correctly that he claimed some pretty huge expenses as an MEP? The Speaker may portray him a a snout in the trough chancer looking for an easy route to become an MP.

I'd also expect various local party organisations to unofficially help the Speaker out with admin support and the like. Its one thing to give the speaker a clear run, quite another to stand by and let UKIP have a free shot.

IMO not at clear which way this will pan out.

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Guest happy?

It shows Farrage for what he is - a political opportunist addicted to publicity stunts.

It's the reason why UKIP are irrelevant.

Has Hannan joined the UKIP oddballs yet - can only be a matter of time.

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Bercow is an second home allowance flipper who paid no tax on the 500K profit he made of the taxpayer and had to repay 6400 in expense payments he should not have claimed. This man is not fit to be any kind of so called public servant let alone speaker.

Farage claimed 2 million in expenses from the EU and apart from what he has used for legit claims the rest have gone into UKIP funds to fight the political campaign. I agree he is a bit of an oppourtunist.

But what we need at the next GE is for a valid non big three candidate to stand against all the expense cheating, flipping pay no capital gains tax MP's.

I would vote for that.

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Spot on.

Do I recall correctly that he claimed some pretty huge expenses as an MEP? The Speaker may portray him a a snout in the trough chancer looking for an easy route to become an MP.

I'd also expect various local party organisations to unofficially help the Speaker out with admin support and the like. Its one thing to give the speaker a clear run, quite another to stand by and let UKIP have a free shot.

IMO not at clear which way this will pan out.

But Bercow also voluntarily paid the taxman back £6508 + VAT on a flipper he'd profited from (avoiding capital gains strategy)

I don't think he'll play the expenses card, somehow.

Spivs, chancers and nonsense merchants - the lot of 'em.

Edited by juvenal

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It shows Farrage for what he is - a political opportunist addicted to publicity stunts.

It's the reason why UKIP are irrelevant.

Has Hannan joined the UKIP oddballs yet - can only be a matter of time.

F*cks sake, you type this on the day Brown is in Aghanistan talking sh1t about "doing the right thing" over there?

You should realise that Farage's party exists because the big three have a cosy consensus to support an undemocratic superstate, and furthermore recognise the BBC is keen to keep them off the map. It's what you have to do when the establishment wants to pretend you aren't there.

A party representing a mainstream opinion that the establishment wants to deny voters access to? What could be more relevant?

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Guest absolutezero
Do I recall correctly that he [Farage I assume] claimed some pretty huge expenses as an MEP?

No. Your memories are wrong.

MEPs don't claim any expenses.

They all get a 3500 euro per month automated payment to their bank account to spend as they wish to cover any "expenses" they may have.

They can even donate it all to their party if they wish.

That's on top of their salary.

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This one could have unforeseen consequences.Raising the UKIP profile,and I am sure an earlier poster is quite correct that Tebbit and those of his ilk will pile in behind Farrago.The result of this will be to raise the UKIP standard,and you know who will respond to the call to arms? Tory voters in droves,posssibly hitting Dave for 5%.

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Bercow is a big favourite because the Labour and libdems will support him

Farage has to hope they stay at home and he can convince tories to back him.

tough task but not impossible, it depends on how successful his campaign is.

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Guest happy?
F*cks sake, you type this on the day Brown is in Aghanistan talking sh1t about "doing the right thing" over there?

You should realise that Farage's party exists because the big three have a cosy consensus to support an undemocratic superstate, and furthermore recognise the BBC is keen to keep them off the map. It's what you have to do when the establishment wants to pretend you aren't there.

A party representing a mainstream opinion that the establishment wants to deny voters access to? What could be more relevant?

The notion that non-mainstream opinions really cannot get a hearing is old hat. The development of the internet means that all sorts of crazies (including UKIP) can get a mass hearing for pennies. Gone are the days when roneo'd flyers and flyposting were the only way to get your views across. The reason why UKIP cannot translate its beliefs into more votes is simple - people don't like them.

Like the BNP, UKIP are finding that there are only so many votes in conjuring bogeymen.

Edited by happy?

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Farage? Who the fck is he? Sounds French to me.

Maybe that's because of the great French influence on British culture, including names, that has been known about by many since, oh, 1066, when the Normans invaded us.

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