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Predicting The General Election Date

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The next general election must take place on or before Thursday June 3rd 2010 (according to here).

So I did some research here and here to find out the months of all General Elections since 1900. They were as follows:

1900 October, 1906 January, 1910 January, 1910 December, 1918 December, 1922 November, 1923 December, 1924 October, 1929 May, 1931 October, 1935 November, 1945 July, 1950 February, 1951 October, 1955 May, 1959 October, 1964 October, 1966 March, 1970 June, 1974 February, 1974 October, 1979 May, 1983 June, 1987 June, 1992 April, 1997 May, 2001 June, 2005 May

In order of the most common months you get:

October (7), May (5), June (4), December (3), January (2), February (2), November (2), March (1), April (1), July (1), August (0), September (0)

There must be good reasons for some months being so much more popular than others, so I predict that the next general election will be called within the next two weeks for an election in October.

Or if not... then it will be called in April 2010 for an election in May.

A possible third likely scenario is that GB may push for the very last date possible, June 3rd.

[Edit: corrected a date]

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Guest Skinty

I reckon May because Brown either:

Believes that the stimulus package will work, it just needs more time and then we'll vote him back in

or

Believes that Labour is doomed in which case he might as well do what he can to prepare for the Tories getting in (scorcheed earth, forcing them to pay for Labour policies etc)

I reckon the former. Although the truth is that he wants to keep in power for as long power regardless.

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The next general election must take place on or before Thursday June 3rd 2010 (according to here).

So I did some research here and here to find out the months of all General Elections since 1900. They were as follows:

1900 October, 1906 January, 1910 January, 1910 December, 1918 December, 1922 November, 1923 December, 1924 October, 1929 May, 1931 October, 1935 November, 1945 July, 1950 February, 1951 October, 1955 May, 1959 October, 1964 October, 1966 March, 1970 June, 1974 February, 1974 October, 1979 May, 1983 June, 1987 June, 1992 April, 1997 May, 2001 June, 2005 May

In order of the most common months you get:

October (7), May (5), June (4), December (3), January (2), February (2), November (2), March (1), April (1), July (1), August (0), September (0)

There must be good reasons for some months being so much more popular than others, so I predict that the next general election will be called within the next two weeks for an election in October.

Or if not... then it will be called in April 2010 for an election in June.

A possible third likely scenario is that GB may push for the very last date possible, June 3rd.

October for me! ;)

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A possible third likely scenario is that GB may push for the very last date possible, June 3rd.

He will hold on to the very last date possible, unless something happens in the meantime that gives him an increase in popularity.

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He will hold on to the very last date possible, unless something happens in the meantime that gives him an increase in popularity.

He's most likely to go just before then, on May 6th. 2010 .... the 70th. anniversary of Churchill becoming PM.

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Guest Barebear

I hope he wins,its all we deserve.

Heres looking forward to more rampant HPI, million pound studio flats , 20 times income multiples, motgages for your children before they're even born,mortgages where you have to lie even if the truth is you can afford one.

And heres looking forward to invading another small country somewhere on earth. (Probably Mexico with their terrorist exploding sombreros) Nothing to do with finding lots of black stuff there.

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i think he's thinking about a late Q3 GE, here's why:

he looks to have had a make-over - hair styled almost to hollywood standards (have a look, you'll see what i mean) - he's lost weight or been botoxed: face looks younger

the green shoots probable mirage is nearing peak - it could be downhill from here or not much better by Q2 2010 at which point joe public may be even more cheesed off

there might be some other crisis - either worsening tragic service personnel losses or banking probs to come by Q2 2010 or another scandal to add to Expenses, Lockerbie et al, so he may go now before it's worse later

edit i dont know why i keep saying Q3, I mean Oct or Nov which is Q4, i am going nutz

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Going for an October election.

That's why all this green shoots nonsense has been 'created' and reported on by the media.

The green shoots are dying and will certainly not last into the new year.

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Please let it be true!

It would make a lot of sense from a Zanu Lab point of view.

The election could be fought on the strength of the current (probably temporary) green shoots/recovery; they'd still get hammered but could leave on a bit of a high.

If they hang around until after christmas there's every chance the recovery would die off, interest rates might have to rise alongside taxes; if they cut and run now they could blame all of that on "Tory failure to invest" etc and hope to get back in relatively soon.

It's an election the Conservatives would probably be better off loosing, except that the price the rest of us would have to pay would be too high.

A hung parliament with Labour forming a minority government might be perfect - force them to clean up the s*** they've created then kick them out once they have.

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He's gonna get spanked regardless. Before he goes I'd like him to build a massive statue of himself somewhere so we can all tear it down and beat it with our shoes after the election!

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The irony is, I think if he calls a GE in October then Labour can still win, albeit with a reduced majority.

Remember... they won 33% of the votes last time and got 66% of the seats. Even if they only got 25% of the votes, as long as it's the right 25% they could still get 51% of the seats and have a majority... and they've had another 4 years to tweak the gerrymandering since the last election too.

A lot of Labour voters, no matter how cheesed off, will NEVER vote Tory. All Labour need to do is ensure that any traditional Labour voters who are fed up vote for one of the irrelevant parties like BNP or Lib-Dems. The rise in the number of alternative parties and independants significantly benefits Labour.

Imagine it... Gordon Brown winning an election. He'd have his "mandate" to rule as he sees fit, to do what he thinks is best for the country. There would be a significant possibility of portion of the country (the "wealthy" portions) declaring independance.

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Just put £15 on at 17-1 with Betfair that the GE will happen this year.

They know they're going to lose but an early election will give them more seats to throw at the Tories.

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He's gonna get spanked regardless. Before he goes I'd like him to build a massive statue of himself somewhere so we can all tear it down and beat it with our shoes after the election!

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The election could be fought on the strength of the current (probably temporary) green shoots/recovery; they'd still get hammered but could leave on a bit of a high.

Inflation 10% by Christmas.

A hung parliament with Labour forming a minority government might be perfect - force them to clean up the s*** they've created then kick them out once they have.

Any sort of Hung parliment would allow them to blame the problems on the conservatives blocking their attempts to solve the problems. If the Tories win they'll blame Labour. We need Labour to win outright so that they have to admit what the actual problem was... out of control house prices destroyed the economy.

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I was always for May 6th. 2010, but the possibility of Oct/Nov 09 is getting stronger, as at the moment the papers are reporting the "green shoots", but by May/June 2010, they could well be reporting unemployment at the psychologically important, back to the 80's, 3 Million.

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i think he's thinking about a late Q3 GE, here's why:

he looks to have had a make-over - hair styled almost to hollywood standards (have a look, you'll see what i mean) - he's lost weight or been botoxed: face looks younger

the green shoots probable mirage is nearing peak - it could be downhill from here or not much better by Q2 2010 at which point joe public may be even more cheesed off

there might be some other crisis - either worsening tragic service personnel losses or banking probs to come by Q2 2010 or another scandal to add to Expenses, Lockerbie et al, so he may go now before it's worse later

edit i dont know why i keep saying Q3, I mean Oct or Nov which is Q4, i am going nutz

Like you I think they are considering October very seriously. Here's why:

Labour Party Conference 27th Sept - 1st October. So call the election on the 10th of September, with a 3 week campaigning window before polling on 1st October. Labour gets to have its Party Conference Coverage (though perhaps shortened) and there is a resultant bounce in Labour support of say 5 percent in addition to the normal narrowing of the polls that happens once the fight is on. This could result in hung parliament, but with the Conservatives the largest party.

The key thing about this strategy is:

1) Maintaining the illusion of green shoots just long enough

2) Wrong footing the Conservatives going into their conference which would fall after the election and so will have no effect.

3) Labour's support base is so demotivated that a long campaigning period just gives the Conservatives longer to out gun them on the streets.

The arguments against this and for May are:

1) Brown is a bottler.

2) May might be a good time to motivate the local Labour Party as councillors etc will be fighting their own elections

3) Brown gets more time to hold onto the controls

4) He really does think his lax Fiscal and the BoE's QE regime will provide a boost that hasn't hit yet.

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i find it quite touching that despite everything you know about Gordon you all still think you're going to get an election.

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Guest Skinty
i find it quite touching that despite everything you know about Gordon you all still think you're going to get an election.

What would happen if we didn't? Besides, Brown's ego needs him to be elected in.

I think it comes down to these points.

How delusional is Brown?

How concerned is he with achieving power for himself rather than the good of the Labour party after he is gone?

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I think that the story about Sky setting up a 'presidential' style debate yesterday shows that people are making plans for an October election in the media. There were some stories that GB might be prepared to take part. Both DC and the other guy already agreed and Sky has threatened an 'empty seat' for any party leader that doesn't turn up.

Could Labour just swing it in October? Very close, but I truly think they are screwed if they wait till May 2010. That would be an immensely risky approach.

At the moment there is lots of good newsflow for the economy. There's even good news from Afghanistan about the poppy crop dropping.

Amazing to think within 9 months, either way, there is a chance for a major political upheaval in this country.

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Like you I think they are considering October very seriously. Here's why:

Labour Party Conference 27th Sept - 1st October. So call the election on the 10th of September, with a 3 week campaigning window before polling on 1st October. Labour gets to have its Party Conference Coverage (though perhaps shortened) and there is a resultant bounce in Labour support of say 5 percent in addition to the normal narrowing of the polls that happens once the fight is on. This could result in hung parliament, but with the Conservatives the largest party.

The key thing about this strategy is:

1) Maintaining the illusion of green shoots just long enough

2) Wrong footing the Conservatives going into their conference which would fall after the election and so will have no effect.

3) Labour's support base is so demotivated that a long campaigning period just gives the Conservatives longer to out gun them on the streets.

The arguments against this and for May are:

1) Brown is a bottler.

2) May might be a good time to motivate the local Labour Party as councillors etc will be fighting their own elections

3) Brown gets more time to hold onto the controls

4) He really does think his lax Fiscal and the BoE's QE regime will provide a boost that hasn't hit yet.

i dont say he's decided definitely yet but he's 80% there, hence his make-over + image improvements. he's thinking about it just as he did 2 years ago, its definitely looking on at the moment from what i can see of the clues including this accidental on purpose mention of wishing to roll his sleeves up and cut his pay.

can i just point out i am not a tory, although i think certain members of the shadow cabinet are quite good, but i would (if i thought they had a chance of forming a govt) vote ukip, but i will be tactically voting tory as i have the past 3 elections

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October, I reckon.

The Libya thing isn't quietening down like I think Labour supposed; and I wonder if the US are going to pull a nasty skeleton out of the cupboard to do the government over. If I was Brown I'd go now before Clinton strikes.

Also I don't think he can psychologically cope with another 8 months in power. He'll snap and do stuff like this: http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/pol...h-200909032029/

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