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A Turning Point In History


Game_Over
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If you had been saying this a hundred years ago you would have been at the cutting edge of political thinking.

Social models that work in very small, very wealthy, resource rich countries invariably fail in large industrialised societies.

But that is only my opinion of course.

:rolleyes:

Large, industrialised societies will cease to exist - The UK is in the vanguard of this process which is already underway with the incipient nationalistic balkanisation of an already de-industrialised country. The Scottish parliament today produced details of their Independence Bill.

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I doubt whether the US dollar will be the world's reserve currency this time next year never mind in 100 years. To usher in a one world currency the US dollar simply has to crash and burn.

The biggest hurdle to NWO centralised control of capital is millions of heavily armed American citizens.

To paraphrase something Kissinger once uttered, if we create the right crisis then the people will beg for our solution. The old problem, reaction, solution = skint 'em, starve 'em, then enslave 'em financially with our electronic/virtual currency.

Yes but only the 'Tinfoil Hat' brigade actually believe in any of this NWO nonsense.

Who is going to create this NWO? Barrack Obama?

And in the absence of a World Currency, which will probably come about eventually, perhaps in a few hundred years time

Which currency is going to replace the Dollar, the Euro? The Yen? The Rouble?

I don't think so.

:rolleyes:

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Large, industrialised societies will cease to exist - The UK is in the vanguard of this process which is already underway with the incipient nationalistic balkanisation of an already de-industrialised country. The Scottish parliament today produced details of their Independence Bill.

I agree that Nu Labour and the EU are intent on the destruction of the United Kingdom

Fortunately, both Nu Labour and the EU are in a lot of trouble at the moment.

The political changes that will happen as a result of this depression will probably result in the rise of nationalism in Europe, which I think you mentioned yourself in an earlier post.

My own feeling is that Nation states will actually emerge from this depression stronger than before and super national organisations and globalisation will actually be weakened.

Basically countries have been shown that they need to be more self sufficient and independent if they want to escape the effects of future Global recessions.

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I doubt whether the US dollar will be the world's reserve currency this time next year never mind in 100 years. To usher in a one world currency the US dollar simply has to crash and burn.

Question: can you tell me which is the biggest debt currency in the world outside the United States?

(The main consequence of the correct answer will most likely tell you something about USD 1 year from now, and that won't be in line with your prediction)

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Yes but only the 'Tinfoil Hat' brigade actually believe in any of this NWO nonsense.

Who is going to create this NWO? Barrack Obama?

We can see powerful global corporations and banks everywhere, global networks of all sorts, etc, and you still believe that each country is governed by an independent government???

So, if there's an organised global force, do you think they act without a plan?

NWO or whatever.. Call them what you will, but globalism is underway.

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Hey, I love these prediction games :)

Very unlikely. The Franco-Germans are very attached to their alliance, they see it as the main factor the 60 years without way that Europe has enjoyed. They will do anything to preserve it. However, see next comment...

Very likely. The French voters in particular are disillusioned with the EU in its current form (although they are very attached to the EU itself).

Very likely. It's impossible to make people think of the long term in the middle of a recession.

Yes and no. It might be over, but their industrial output has increased massively. They could be compared to the USA at the start of the 20th century, in particular I'm worried that they might create their own "Monroe Doctrine" in SE Asia. And why not? They've got the factories, the manpower, and they're big enough to not get bullied by the US any more.

That's like saying that naive optimism is dead ;)

We've got a century of failed socialist states behind us, yet millions still believe it to be superior to capitalism.

I beg to differ :) They can no longer boss China around, and they've closed down zillions of factories. Ok, they've got fancy military toys, but an army also needs more mundane supplies: toothpicks, boot polish, watches, most of which now come from... China :)

As long as the USA can keep on convincing the world that it is all powerful.

Definitely not.

At present renewables are already cost-effective in edge cases (top of mountains, solar water in hot countries, etc...). They are slowly becoming more cost-effective in larger installations, and I can't see that trend changing unless if a new Saudi Arabia is found.

It's more fun than another thread on the Wilsons :lol:

For what it's worth, here's a prediction of my own:

"Gift economies" will develop and grow to replace a significant part of the traditional free market system. I'm biased here as my job (website developer) would not exist without the gift economies (a.k.a. open source software, creative commons) that already exists.

Don't you think that Germany supported the EU as a counter balance to the Soviet Union and Russia and that now Germany is reunified support for the EU and the Euro in Germany could collapse.

After the fall of Communism a vacuum was left in Eastern Europe and the EU expanded rapidly to try and fill the Vacuum before Russia recovered. This expansion was paid for by the credit boom which has now bust leaving potentially massive losses for European banks in the East.

Now Germany is reunified, will the German people be prepared to bail out the PIIGS or will they choose to bail out Eastern Europe instead? I don't see how they can do both.

As to renewables in the UK, I don't think we can afford them anymore and they can't possibly fill the looming energy gap so I think we will get a new generation of coal fired stations and nukes.

Economic growth statistics coming out of China aren't worth the paper they are written on.

And the underlying economic fundamentals of the US are so strong that it will always recover stronger from any recession. They have far too much land, natural resources and human capital to fail in the long run.

Not a complete response, but I have suddenly realised the flaw in my thread

Too many ideas in one place

:rolleyes:

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Guest Steve Cook
As I have just 'had a go' at people on another thread for getting bogged down in insignificant details and missing the 'big picture', this is my take on where we are at the moment.

We have just experienced by far the biggest credit bubble in history and now it has burst I cannot understand it when people question why I think things will change.

So for the record these are some of my predictions for the future.

The Euro will fail in the next 5-10 years

The EU itself will not survive in its current form

MMGW will be quietly consigned to the political dustbin.

China's Economic miracle is finished

Socialism in the UK is finished.

The US will emerge from this depression even more powerful than it was before.

The Dollar will be the World reserve currency for the next 100 years.

Renewable energy in this country is finished

Oil gas and coal will last another 100 years

I don't want an argument with anyone, I am just interested to see how 'off the wall' my predictions are viewed by other people.

But if anyone else wants an argument, be my guest.

It would also be interesting to see if anyone else is prepared to 'stick their necks out' and make a few predictions of their own.

:rolleyes:

Read George Orwell's 1984 for a fairly odds-on prediction of where we will all be in a decade or so.....

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Just two simple examples.

If the private pension schemes had been axed before 1989, the USSR would have exposed it around the world as the failure of capitalism.

If the cost of an average house before 1989 had been 7 or 8 times the average salary, the USSR would have exposed it around the world as the failure of capitalism.

These days pensions can be axed, houses can be overpriced for as long as they want, people can be forced to pay for banks' losses. The politicians keep telling us that it's for our ow good. The problem is that there's no alternative around. They can lie about anything - no one is there to expose their lies.

The USSR was the most evil system that ever existed on this planet but as an alternative to capitalism it kept putting limits on the western governments.

But don't totalitarian states always need an external threat to justify repression at home?

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union Governments in the West have had to invent a constant stream of external threats in order to justify oppressive laws and taxes, the main ones being Global Warming and Islamic Terrorism.

Now we have a much bigger external threat 'The Global Downturn', Global Warming is no longer really required, but Islamic Terrorism is still useful as an excuse to introduce draconian 'police state' laws and surveillance.

:blink:

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-The Euro will fail in the next 5-10 years

No chance. Strengthen. With maybe some teething problems for countries. But with things like Iran pushing for oil trading in Euro, the future is bright.

-The EU itself will not survive in its current form

Well it's going to change, seems to only be coming more and more important, not less. Countries with the audacity to vote no to be asked again, and maybe again to ratify.

-MMGW will be quietly consigned to the political dustbin.

MMGW to become self evident.

-China's Economic miracle is finished

Finished? They're going to take a hit like everyone. And then get back to dragging more and more of itself out of the dark ages.

-Socialism in the UK is finished.

People like their NHS.

-The US will emerge from this depression even more powerful than it was before.

If they were the most powerful before, hard to see them becoming any more powerful. Their debt crisis could be colossal and other countries sorting themselves out. e.g. Iran, Venezuela, Russia, China.

- The Dollar will be the World reserve currency for the next 100 years.

Maybe. But that's what is expected.

-Renewable energy in this country is finished

You don't believe in Global warming huh?

Oil gas and coal will last another 100 years

Quite possibly.

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Read George Orwell's 1984 for a fairly odds-on prediction of where we will all be in a decade or so.....

George Orwells predictions were proved correct in the Soviet Union and China many decades in the past

But I suppose if we had another couple of Labour Governments we could go the same way

As this is now highly unlikely, I am hopeful that much of the 'police state' that Nu Labour have created will be dismantled by the next Conseravtive Government.

But who knows?

:rolleyes:

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Don't you think that Germany supported the EU as a counter balance to the Soviet Union and Russia and that now Germany is reunified support for the EU and the Euro in Germany could collapse.

After the fall of Communism a vacuum was left in Eastern Europe and the EU expanded rapidly to try and fill the Vacuum before Russia recovered. This expansion was paid for by the credit boom which has now bust leaving potentially massive losses for European banks in the East.

Now Germany is reunified, will the German people be prepared to bail out the PIIGS or will they choose to bail out Eastern Europe instead? I don't see how they can do both.

Good question. Answer: haven't a clue :-)

As to renewables in the UK, I don't think we can afford them anymore and they can't possibly fill the looming energy gap so I think we will get a new generation of coal fired stations and nukes.

I'll stick to my basic premise which is that renewables are already cost-effective in marginal cases, and the trend over the past few decades is for their cost effectiveness to improve; can't see any reason why that should change.

The big wind farms that depend on subsidies could be in trouble, but then again - without big state subsidies/guarantees nuke power is also dead.

Economic growth statistics coming out of China aren't worth the paper they are written on.

Totally agree, tractor production up again this year...

Instead we can look at the number of container ships that leave China every year, or simply count all the stuff in our homes with 'made in china' labels. They are a big country now - and a recession is not going to kill them off. Their close neighbours Japan and Korea both grew through economic depressions in the 70s, China can potentially do the same.

And the underlying economic fundamentals of the US are so strong that it will always recover stronger from any recession. They have far too much land, natural resources and human capital to fail in the long run.

Sounds like you're describing Russia ;)

The big advantages of the USA have been IMO: reasonable freedom, and a well-educated population. Take those away and you have another Russia, powerful but flawed. And the USA have been rushing backwards both in terms of freedom and education recently.

Not a complete response, but I have suddenly realised the flaw in my thread

Too many ideas in one place

:rolleyes:

"Like an explosion in an ideas factory" ;)

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I agree that Nu Labour and the EU are intent on the destruction of the United Kingdom

The Scottish people are intent on the destruction of the UK. Political parties and policies have very little to do with their 'settled will'.

The political changes that will happen as a result of this depression will probably result in the rise of nationalism in Europe, which I think you mentioned yourself in an earlier post.

My own feeling is that Nation states will actually emerge from this depression stronger than before and super national organisations and globalisation will actually be weakened.

Basically countries have been shown that they need to be more self sufficient and independent if they want to escape the effects of future Global recessions.

I would draw your attention to the circumstances prevailing before the conditions were in place to allow the outbreak of the Great War. There are parallels with today.

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-The Euro will fail in the next 5-10 years

No chance. Strengthen. With maybe some teething problems for countries. But with things like Iran pushing for oil trading in Euro, the future is bright.

Iran pushing for oil trading in Euro's? Can't see any political motive for that ;)

-The EU itself will not survive in its current form

Well it's going to change, seems to only be coming more and more important, not less. Countries with the audacity to vote no to be asked again, and maybe again to ratify.

Exactly - anti-democratic and totalitarian. France and Germany bullying smaller countries into doing their bidding.

-MMGW will be quietly consigned to the political dustbin.

MMGW to become self evident.

MMGW now shown by data to be a fallacy, hence not so subtle name change to Climate Change which is indisputable as the climate has always changed and always will

-China's Economic miracle is finished

Finished? They're going to take a hit like everyone. And then get back to dragging more and more of itself out of the dark ages.

I think much of the miracle is/was fiddled figures.

-Socialism in the UK is finished.

People like their NHS.

I don't think any serious politicians actually believe that the NHS can survive for much longer in its present form. Obama certainly won't introduce anything like our NHS in the USA and I don't think you could describe health care provision as a Socialist idea. There is no such thing as FREE health care, you either pay for it through NI or through private insurance, either way it isn't free and if the taxes cost more than private insurance then people are actually getting a worse deal from a Nationalised Health service.

-The US will emerge from this depression even more powerful than it was before.

If they were the most powerful before, hard to see them becoming any more powerful. Their debt crisis could be colossal and other countries sorting themselves out. e.g. Iran, Venezuela, Russia, China.

I think they will be more powerful in relative terms because others will be hit much harder and take longer to recover.

- The Dollar will be the World reserve currency for the next 100 years.

Maybe. But that's what is expected.

Not by many people on this site who are expecting a World currency any day now.

-Renewable energy in this country is finished

You don't believe in Global warming huh?

Does anyone really anymore? Its just people don't like to admit they were wrong.

Oil gas and coal will last another 100 years

Quite possibly.

:rolleyes:

Edited by Game_Over
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The Euro will fail in the next 5-10 years

The EU itself will not survive in its current form

MMGW will be quietly consigned to the political dustbin.

China's Economic miracle is finished

Socialism in the UK is finished.

The US will emerge from this depression even more powerful than it was before.

The Dollar will be the World reserve currency for the next 100 years.

Renewable energy in this country is finished

Oil gas and coal will last another 100 years

If I had written that it would be almost identical.

My prediction for the near future.

ZanuLabour are fooked.

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The Scottish people are intent on the destruction of the UK. Political parties and policies have very little to do with their 'settled will'.

I would draw your attention to the circumstances prevailing before the conditions were in place to allow the outbreak of the Great War. There are parallels with today.

So you think there could be another war in Europe?

I hope you are wrong :(

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No, I don't think there will be a war in Europe. But we already have plenty imperialistic wars going on right now, with plenty mission creep already evident.

I suspect that as soon as NATO starts to lose its cohesion the Serbs will be back into Kosovo like a shot.

I remember watching footage of the Yugoslav army leaving, and they were all making it clear that one day they'd be back.

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Good question. Answer: haven't a clue :-)

My feeling is Germany will bail out Eastern Europe and let the PIIGS go to the wall. Now Germany is reunified they don't need the EU. When Russia invaded Georgia the EU did nothing, so Germanys security lies in a strong Eastern Europe, NATO and their own Army.

I'll stick to my basic premise which is that renewables are already cost-effective in marginal cases, and the trend over the past few decades is for their cost effectiveness to improve; can't see any reason why that should change.

The big wind farms that depend on subsidies could be in trouble, but then again - without big state subsidies/guarantees nuke power is also dead.

Yes but nukes produce reliable, base demand power 24 hrs a day, wind turbines are useless without expensive pumped storage systems which we don't have and will never be able to afford to build.

Totally agree, tractor production up again this year...

Instead we can look at the number of container ships that leave China every year, or simply count all the stuff in our homes with 'made in china' labels. They are a big country now - and a recession is not going to kill them off. Their close neighbours Japan and Korea both grew through economic depressions in the 70s, China can potentially do the same.

China is going to have a hard job meeting the economic expectations of its own citizens over the next 10-20 years IMO.

Sounds like you're describing Russia ;)

The big advantages of the USA have been IMO: reasonable freedom, and a well-educated population. Take those away and you have another Russia, powerful but flawed. And the USA have been rushing backwards both in terms of freedom and education recently.

This feeds back to the first point. Russia is never as strong as she appears nor as weak. The headlong expansion of the EU into Eastern Europe was an attempt to exploit Russias temporary weakness. Historically Germany always looked East more than it looked West and they have far more to lose if Eastern Europe crashes than if the PIIGS collapse. The one thing that always held back Russia was its political system, if the Soviet Union had embraced capitalism they would have still been a Super Power now IMO.

"Like an explosion in an ideas factory" ;)

Edited by Game_Over
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No, I don't think there will be a war in Europe. But we already have plenty imperialistic wars going on right now, with plenty mission creep already evident.

Imperialism is "the highest form of Capitalism".

Where are you getting these quotes from?

The war is over Comrade - the Capitalist Imperialist running dogs won.

:lol:

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I suspect that as soon as NATO starts to lose its cohesion the Serbs will be back into Kosovo like a shot.

I remember watching footage of the Yugoslav army leaving, and they were all making it clear that one day they'd be back.

Didn't France just join NATO after God knows how many years?

When the Russians invaded Gerorgia the EU sh*t its pants.

But of course the significance of events like this are largely ignored by the media

The EU has outlived its usefulness to Germany IMO.

Big changes are on the way.

:blink:

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Guest absolutezero
But how long can this continue?

Not much longer I think.

:rolleyes:

I think you're right. We're being lied to. Intersting topic of conversa... Oooh look. X factor is on now....

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